Because the Thumb teams have played only themselves to this point, the model is having trouble comparing them to teams from around the State (we have the same issue with the KLAA).
This means the model's projections will likely be off any time a team from the thumb plays outside of the area, which they are doing for the first time this weekend.
The good news is that once we have this week's data in the model, this issue will be rectified (for the most part)
Makes sense... the Thumb does tend to beat up on itself but the truly good teams do rise to the top during the playoffs (most of the time). Will be a good test for Laker- they haven't seen the veer ran with as much speed as Garber has, but Laker is *massive* up front. I've seen a fair amount of both of these teams, it'll be a one or two score game either way.
Probably no way to stat this out, but Rockford gave up 2 LATE TDs to Hudsonville with 2nd and 3rd string defense in against H-vile’ s starters.
Kentwood scored on our backups, also. Coach Cummings will almost always allow backups to get field time in our blowout games. Many opponents don’t follow the same logic, in those games.
The best gm to gauge the DS, would be vs Grandville, the 3rd best team in the conference. Overall, the Rams’ defense is pretty stout.
Laker losing to Garber 47-7?? I think that game will be close but WOW
Because the Thumb teams have played only themselves to this point, the model is having trouble comparing them to teams from around the State (we have the same issue with the KLAA).
This means the model's projections will likely be off any time a team from the thumb plays outside of the area, which they are doing for the first time this weekend.
The good news is that once we have this week's data in the model, this issue will be rectified (for the most part)
Makes sense... the Thumb does tend to beat up on itself but the truly good teams do rise to the top during the playoffs (most of the time). Will be a good test for Laker- they haven't seen the veer ran with as much speed as Garber has, but Laker is *massive* up front. I've seen a fair amount of both of these teams, it'll be a one or two score game either way.
I agree with your analysis - case in point, Ubly was in the Semis last year for a reason
Just need a few more weeks of data and we'll be able to properly set the spread on these games
The Garber / Laker game will have a bunch of influence on this
How does your ranking system/algorithm differ from what calpreps uses?
80% of it uses the same inputs that they use (point spreads and strength of schedule). The other 20% is secret sauce.
Probably no way to stat this out, but Rockford gave up 2 LATE TDs to Hudsonville with 2nd and 3rd string defense in against H-vile’ s starters.
Kentwood scored on our backups, also. Coach Cummings will almost always allow backups to get field time in our blowout games. Many opponents don’t follow the same logic, in those games.
The best gm to gauge the DS, would be vs Grandville, the 3rd best team in the conference. Overall, the Rams’ defense is pretty stout.
Good analysis. I always wish we could go another level deeper but we lack the data to do so.
We'll see if you're correct in ~32 hours!