The Spread on Rockford / Caledonia

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #48!

Today is our ninth of 14 weekly previews.

For this week’s post, we’ve got the following sections in store:

1. Big Games: A brief overview of the State’s biggest game

2. Fun Facts: A smattering of other ‘fun facts’ about Week 9 matchups

3. Other Info: General football information (polls, etc.)

Lastly, a note of apology: we got super busy this week running our model for Snooze2You’s Week 8.5 scenario. This prevented us from getting our weekly wrap-up out. We’re sorry this happened - it won’t happen again.

To (partially) make up for this, here’s the link to our work with Snooze. If you’re interested in what the playoff picture will look like should every favorite win this coming weekend, this is where you’ll find it:

Before we jump into the post, I want to take a moment and say thanks to our entire community of 923 subscribers.

As of two weeks ago, this newsletter is now 1 year old, and we’re forever thankful to the love & support you guys have shown us over that time period.

Here’s to year 2 and knocking down 1000 subscribers! (WE ARE GETTING SO CLOSE).

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Week 9 Big Games

Caledonia vs. Rockford

Our game of the week this week is THE game in the State this year. Don’t believe me? Take a look at a few fast facts:

• Both teams are 8-0 & playing for the OK Red Championship

• Both teams are rated #1 and #2 in Division 1 by our computer model (and #1 / #3 overall)

• Between both teams, there’s been only one 1-score result all year (Rockford vs. Mona, Week 2)

How lucky are we to get this in the last week of the season?

Let’s jump into how the model’s rating this:

We’ve got a 5.5 point spread on this game, in favor of Caledonia. If you look closer, you’ll see why the spread is set this way: while both teams have nearly identical offensive ratings, Caledonia’s defense is about 6 points better.

The scores from common opponents back this story up (for the most part):

• West Ottawa

  • Rockford: allowed 13 points

  • Caledonia: allowed 0 points

• East Kentwood

  • Rockford: allowed 20 points

  • Caledonia: allowed 0 points

• Grandville

  • Rockford: allowed 14 points

  • Caledonia: allowed 40 points

• Hudsonville

  • Rockford: allowed 31 points

  • Caledonia: allowed 14 points

• Jenison

  • Rockford: allowed 14 points

  • Caledonia: allowed 0 points

That’s a clear defensive edge to Caledonia.

One other angle on this that supports lower scoring by Rockford: it’s been raining all week. Why’s that important? Well, Caledonia plays on grass, a surface Rockford hasn’t played on all year.

I’m sure Cal’s grounds crew does a phenomenal job, but that field is not going to be in tip top shape. Rockford’s offense will have to adjust accordingly, and that may take them a few series.

4 Sets of Fun Facts for Week 9

The Best Game in Every Division

A great slate this week, including THREE matchups between undefeated opponents (Gladwin / SSC & Clinton / Hudson are the other two).

If things go chalk, the State’s longest win streak (Hudson) will end this week. You guys disagree, but barely. 52% of you voted in favor of Hudson.

Another fun one is Rouge / Southfield. Our model has that one as essentially a coin-flip (3 point spread), but you guys disagree. 60% of you voted for Rouge there.

Tracking the Champs

Here’s a fun stat: HALF of last year’s State Champs are projected to lose in Week 9. This includes Detroit MLK, Chelsea, Pewamo-Westphalia, and Hudson.

Another fun one is Belleville / Brighton: both are 8-0 and playing for the KLAA championship. Our model doesn’t think it will be close: we’ve got Belleville by three scores.

Games Where 8-0 Teams are Projected to Lose

There’s 31 undefeated teams left in the State this week. Are you surprised that NINE of them are projected to lose?

We’ve already covered Brighton, SSC, Rockford, and Hudson. But take a look at EPB Laker, Ecorse, and Napoleon. In all three games, we’re projecting an undefeated team to lose, and you guys are disagreeing with us.

As for GPN and Durand, your guys’ picks and our model are aligned: both teams are projected to drop their first game of the season this week.

Superlative Matchups

Here’s some other fun facts that the model is throwing off this week:

• Game w/ the highest over/under: (76)

  • Tecumseh vs. Bay City John Glenn

• Game w/ the lowest over/under: (20)

  • St Clair vs. Port Huron Northern

• Pick ‘em Games: (7)

  • Cass Tech vs. Brother Rice

  • Petoskey vs. Marquette

  • Canton vs. Livonia Churchill

  • Manton vs. Johannesburg-Lewiston

  • Livonia Franklin vs. Northville

  • Novi vs. Dearborn

  • Allen Park vs. Southgate Anderson

Other Useful Information

Coaches Poll

The Week 8 Coaches Poll was just released on Tuesday. Check it out here if you’d like to see how the State’s coaches are ranking the teams in all 8 11-man divisions:

• MHSFCA Coaches Poll

That’s all for today! We hope everyone has a great Week 9.

Check back here on Monday for our Playoff Preview Guide.

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