Week 7 Preview: 6 Undefeated Teams Are Projected to Lose

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #45!

Today is our seventh of 14 weekly previews.

For this week’s post, we’ve got the following sections in store:

1. Big Games: A brief overview of 2-5 of the State’s biggest games

2. Fun Facts: A smattering of ‘fun facts’ about matchups occurring that week

3. Other Info: General football information (polls, etc.)

Lastly, if you haven’t checked out our Week 6 Computer Rankings, I highly suggest you read that before continuing (link below).

Before we jump into the post, let’s pause for a moment.

On Monday, we marked the 1 year anniversary of this newsletter. When we started back in October 2021, we weren’t sure what would come of this - all we knew was that we loved Michigan HS Football, and that we (as fans) wanted better data to talk about the game with.

Well, 368 days and 45 posts later, we are running 797 subscribers strong!

Thanks to all of you who have supported us along the way. We’re going to keep pushing (we have 1000 marked as our goal for 2022), but we just want you to know that one year in, we’re thankful to all of those who have contributed to our journey.

If you’ve been a reader, but have yet to subscribe, you can do so at the button below!

Goosepoop Premium

One last thing:

This coming Monday, we’re going to release our first paid product.

Under the tentative name “Goosepoop Premium”, we’re going to bring you ALL of the data that our Computer Model is spitting out each week.

• Want your favorite team’s projected spread & over/under for each of its remaining games?

• Want to see where your favorite team ranks within its division and overall?

• Want to see the ranking and score projection of every team in the State?

We’ll have all of these & more.

If you’re interested in being notified when Goosepoop Premium launches (again, we are targeting this Monday), please let us know at the link below.

• I’m interested in Goosepoop Premium

Launching our first paid service is a huge step in the journey we’re on, and we hope you’re as excited as we are!

Week 7 Big Games

Alright - let’s talk Week 7.

This week, we’ve got a bit of a ‘down’ week in terms of top matchups. There are no undefeated teams squaring off (although several ARE projected to lose, see below), and our top two matchups feature two teams who didn’t make the playoffs last year.

That said, we still think there’s a reason to be tuned in. That’s because each game features teams who are top 20 in their divisions. That means if things go as planned, there is a high percentage chance that these games are repeated in round one or two of the playoffs, four weeks from now.

In our first game, we’ve got Hudsonville and Rockford. Hudsonville flys under the radar because their record is poor (they’re 2-4 and went 4-5 last year), but do not underestimate them: their record is merely a reflection of the schedule they’ve played to date (the 7th toughest in the State). As such, despite having only two wins, the Eagles are actually the 17th best team in the Division 1.

Does this mean they can hang with #2 overall Rockford? Our model doesn’t seem to think so - it’s got the Rams as 3 touchdown favorites here. However, bear in mind that Hudsonville is very much a ‘bubble’ team: despite being highly regarded by our model, they are still 2-4, and they absolutely need two wins in their next three games to be in playoff consideration. Does this add some fuel to their fire? If last year’s result is any indication, it certainly will: despite going 4-5, they played a 9-0 Rockford team close, losing 21-16.

In our second game, we’ve got a similar dynamic playing out: 5-1 Utica Eisenhower is playing undefeated Macomb Dakota, a team we’ve featured several times in this newsletter. Eisenhower flys under the radar due to their 1-8 performance a year ago, but they’ve quietly amassed an impressive season to date: they sit at 5-1 with their lone loss to a top 10 team, Chippewa Valley.

At face value, you might think that this game will be quite competitive: the two teams have only one loss between the two of them, and, with a win, Eisenhower can clinch a share of the MAC Red title. However, looking a bit closer tells a different story: Eisenhower’s lone loss is to Chippewa Valley (33-7); Chippewa Valley lost to Dakota by 9 in Week 5.

It is this fact that our model is picking up on: despite the similar records, Dakota is favored by 17 points. The Playoff Wizard Users seem to agree: 75% of them have picked Dakota here.

Hudsonville vs. Rockford

Utica Eisenhower vs. Macomb Dakota

4 Sets of Fun Facts for Week 7

The Best Game in Every Division

As always, we’re bringing you this week’s best game in every divison:

Check out D6: Gladstone vs. Negaunee will very likely be the best game in the UP all year. Our model has it as a pick’em, but Playoff Wizard users seem to think otherwise.

Tecumseh vs. Chelsea is another interesting one - Tecumseh has been lighting up the scoreboards all year, and the model has them favorited against last year’s D4 State Champs. You guys disagree - 54% of you have voted in favor of the Bulldogs here.

Finally, check out the Ithaca / Saginaw MLS game. Similar to Tecumseh / Chelsea, our model is saying one thing (Ithaca favorited by 11 points), and the Playoff Wizard Users are saying another (54% voting in favor of Saginaw MLS).

Tracking the Champs

Let’s check in on last year’s State Champions and see how they’re projected to do this week:

Every single State Champ is favored to win this week, save for two.

The first is Chelsea, whom we already spoke on above.

The second is Lansing Catholic, who takes on Portland. The Cougars are a 20 point underdog, and all of the Playoff Wizard Users seem to agree: not a single one has voted for Lansing Catholic to win!

If this loss plays out, Lansing Catholic will drop to 2-5, their worst record since 2013. That said, they can still make some noise in D6: we’ve got them rated as the 22nd best team in D6, and the Playoff Wizard forecasts the Cougars qualifying for the Playoffs with only a 3-6 record.

Games Where 6-0 Teams are Projected to Lose

Because we don’t have any undefeated teams squaring off this week, we’re taking a look at the 6 games where 6-0 teams are projected to lose (the undefeated team is bolded):

Interestingly enough, Playoff Wizard Users only agree with the model on two of the six games - Kent City / Reed City and Negaunee / Gladstone

Of the other four, three are under 4 point spreads. This means that they are essentially pick ‘ems: in the three weeks we’ve been running our model, teams favorited by 4 points or less have only won roughly 50% of the time.

Superlative Matchups

Finally, let’s talk about some other Week 7 fun facts that the model is spitting out:

• Game w/ the highest over/under: (96)

  • Saginaw Heritage vs. Midland Dow

• Game w/ the lowest over/under: (17)

  • East Kentwood vs. Holland West Ottawa

• Pick ‘em Games: (7)

  • Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker vs. Bad Axe

  • Carrolton vs. Hemlock

  • Hillsdale vs. Dundee

  • Stockbridge vs. Perry

  • Paw Paw vs. Niles

  • Hanover-Horton vs. Manchester

  • Gladstone vs. Negaunee

Other Useful Information

Coaches Poll

The Week 6 Coaches Poll was just released on Tuesday. Check it out here if you’d like to see how the State’s coaches are ranking the teams in all 8 11-man divisions:

• MHSFCA Coaches Poll

That’s all for today! We hope everyone has a great Week 7.

Check back here on Monday for the next edition of our Goosepoop Computer Ratings.

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