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Week 7 2023 MHSAA Football Preview

SIX undefeated teams are projected to lose, EIGHT probable round 1 playoff rematches

October 05, 2023

Hi Everyone -

Goosepoop #78 is here!

Here’s the lineup for today’s note:

  • Computer Rankings: Our top 10 rankings for every division

  • Feature Games: projections for the week’s biggest games

  • Undefeated Matchups: projections for the games between undefeated teams

  • Undefeated No More: games where undefeated teams are expected to lose

  • ‘Bubble’ Games: Our Computer Model has detected games this week that are *essentially* playoff games

  • Potential Playoff Rematches: games between teams with a high likelihood of rematching in Round 1 of the playoffs

  • Pick’ Em Games: Games that our computer model has deemed 50/50 win probabilities

  • Coach’s Poll: The Week 6 Coach’s Poll is out!

Also:

We hit 2,000 subscribers this week!

So let’s take a moment.

We started this note almost exactly 2 years ago.

When I did, it was just a pop-up on the Playoff Wizard landing page…

And my writing was trash.

Now, my writing is *still* trash…

BUT I like to think I’ve gotten a lot better at putting out what YOU GUYS want to read each week.

So thanks guys: I appreciate your patience with me, and your loyal readership along the way.

If you’ve yet to subscribe, make sure you do so below.

You might just be subscriber 3,000 :)

Week 6 Computer Rankings

We dropped Week 6 computer rankings on all of our socials the other night.

On Instagram, we get a *TON* of hate mail for these.

In case you don’t have time to read the comments, here are some common complaints (most are D1 centric):

  1. Computer does not have Northville in the top 10, despite being undefeated and beating top 10 team, Clarkston, in Week 1

  2. Clarkston is ranked below West Bloomfield, despite beating them last week

  3. Computer does not have Southfield ranked in the top 10, despite being undefeated and defeating Clarkston in Week 2

  4. Computer has Dakota ranked over Chippewa Valley, despite Dakota losing to them in Week 5

  5. Computer has Ogemaw ranked higher than Gladwin, despite the Flying G’s beating them by 2 scores in Week 1

If you DO want to read the comments, click the below post. You can also swipe to see the top 10 in each division:

Don’t see your team ranked?

Don’t sweat it: we’ve got all 495 11-man teams ranked on Goosepoop Pro

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Week 7 Feature Games

Zeeland West (6-0) vs. Muskegon (4-2)

The #1 team in D3 takes on the #2 team in D2 in a conference battle that will *likely* determine the winner of the OK Green. Last year, the Dux edged the Big Reds in season by 2, only to fall to them in the Regional Finals in another close one, 27-20. This year, they will only play once…. but we still project a dogfight.

Clarkston (4-2) vs. Lake Orion (6-0)

Is Clarkston the hottest team in D1? Since suffering two losses to the start the season, the Wolves have rattled off 4 straight, including an impressive upset victory over West Bloomfield, who is ranked #8 in D1 (see commentary above). That question will be answered definitely this weekend, where they’ll look to play the spoiler once again: undefeated Lake Orion has been in the D1 Top 5 all season, and they’ll be favored by more than a score.

Portage Central (5-1) vs. Portage Northern (6-0)

The SMAC hasn’t gotten a lot of love on this newsletter this year, and that’s no one’s fault but mine. So that changes this week: these teams are not only crosstown rivals, they’re also both ranked in our D2 top 10 (PC is #10, PN is #6). If that wasn’t enough, I project that these two face each other 3 weeks from now in Round 1 of the Playoffs (the computer assigns a 47% probability to that scenario).

Chippewa Valley (4-2) vs. Romeo (3-3) AND Dakota (5-1) vs. Eisenhower (5-1)

It’s moving week in the MAC Red. At the moment, all four teams shown above are tied for first place in the Conference.

Chip Valley vs. Romeo

Dakota vs. Eisenhower

Given the low point spreads in both contests, we could see any one of FOUR scenarios emerge:

  • Chippewa Valley Champ (29% probability) (Chip wins and Dakota wins)

  • Dakota Champ (26% probability) (Romeo wins and Dakota wins)

  • Eisenhower Champ (24% probability) (Chip wins and Ike wins)

  • Romeo Champ (21% probability) (Romeo wins and Ike wins)

Someone Has To Lose

This one of my feature games, but I moved it to this section as it is the ONLY matchup between undefeated teams this week.

Gladwin (6-0) vs. Notre Dame Prep (5-0)

Wow. Huge point spread by the model here, especially considering the Flying G’s are the reigning D5 State Champs AND won this matchup last year by 6. You’ve been hearing all season long how much the computers love Notre Dame Prep…. we’ll see this weekend if they’re correct.

Side note: this game will also have huge rating implications for Clinton, who played ND Prep in Week 1 and is #1 in D7. If ND Prep loses (or plays much closer than the spread here), I fully expect the computer to adjust Clinton’s rating downwards.

Undefeated No More?

Outside of Gladwin / ND Prep, there are 5 OTHER undefeated teams projected to lose this weekend:

Frankfort (6-0) vs. Fowler (5-1)

Freeland (6-0) vs. Frankenmuth (5-1)

Tri County (6-0) vs. Big Rapids (5-1)

Auburn Hills Avondale (6-0) vs. Seaholm (5-1)

Millington (6-0) vs. Bullock Creek (4-2)

‘Bubble’ Games

Our computer model has detected THREE games between teams who are ‘on the bubble’ for the playoffs. These should be treated like playoff games: win, and you’re in. Lose, and you’re likely out.

Hamilton (4-2) vs. Unity Christian (2-4)

Dowagiac (4-2) vs. Berrien Springs (3-3)

Burton Bentley (4-2) vs. Burton Bendle (4-2)

Is your team a lock to make the playoffs?

It’s tough to say, but our computer can help you figure that out

*NOT* 1-and-done

We’re projecting that EIGHT matchups this weekend have a high likelihood (>30%) of happening again in Round 1 of the Playoffs:

Rockford (6-0) vs. East Kentwood (3-3)

Goodrich (5-1) vs. Ortonville Brandon (3-3)

Lawton (5-1) vs. Schoolcraft (5-1)

Portage Northern (6-0) vs. Portage Central (5-1)

Forest Hills Central (5-1) vs. Northview (4-2)

Portland (6-0) vs. Charlotte (5-1)

Warren Fitzgerald (3-3) vs. Grosse Pointe North (5-1)

Cass City (5-1) vs. Laker (4-2)

Who’s your team projected first round opponent?

How about their second round opponent?

Find out on Goosepoop Pro

Coin Flip

Outside of Bullock Creek / Millington, there are two other 11-man games projected as PICK ‘EMs:

Parchment (3-3) vs. Allegan (4-2)

John Glenn (5-1) vs. Fordson (5-1)

Don’t see your team’s game projected?

Don’t worry!

We’ve got every.single.game projected on Goosepoop Pro.

MHSFCA Coaches Poll

Last thing here!

The MHSFCA Coach’s Poll has been updated for Week 6

Check out how the State’s Coaches have teams ranked right here

That’s all for today guys!

Thanks again for reading my note.

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