Week 6 Rankings: New #1 in Division 1

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #44!

Today is our sixth of fourteen weekly wrap-ups, where we digest all of the week’s high school football action.

In today’s note, we’ve got the following sections:

• Big Game Review - a brief review of our 2 feature games from last week

• Tracking the Champs - game results for each of the State’s 2021 Champions

• Biggest Upsets - the 10 largest upsets from around the State

• Model Check-In - how our models fared in picking Week 6 games

• Survivor Island - a count of the State’s unbeaten teams

• Most Improved - a look at which teams have improved the most this year

• Most Underrated - a look at the top 10 teams with losing records

• Superlatives - a smattering of other Week 6 fun facts

• Computer Ratings - Week 6 computer ratings for every division

• Next Week - where next week’s biggest games are

Scroll on to check them out!

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Big Game Review

In our Week 6 Preview, we talked a lot about one word: parity.

We used this word because it described the potential implications of each of our two feature games: in both, there was large potential for upsets to occur (both had spreads of under 8 points), and, if said upsets did occur, the conference championship implications would make things quite murky (there would be three way ties across both the OK Red and the CHSL Central).

Well, this sort of played out. By ‘sort of’, we mean it did in only one of our two feature games: DLS bested DCC on Sunday, by a score of 28 - 0.

With this result, there would have been a three way tie atop the CHSL Central (DCC, DLS, and Brother Rice all beat teach other).

But wait! OLSM upset Brother Rice this past weekend, further muddying the waters. With this result, this means that the CHSL Central standings now look like this:

• DLS: 2-1

• DCC: 1-1

• OLSM: 1-1

• Brother Rice: 1-2

That’s not quite a four way tie (DLS has the clear lead), but keep in mind that the last place team, Brother Rice, has a the only win over the first place team, Warren DLS.

Not to beat a drum …. but certainly a case for extreme parity.

In our other feature game, we ended with a much clearer picture. Despite being only a 5 point underdog, Grandville was unable to keep pace with Rockford, losing 37 - 14.

This means that the OK Red title race is actually quite clear:

• Rockford: 4-0

• Caledonia: 4-0

• Grandville: 2-2

• East Kentwood: 2-2

• Hudsonville: 2-2

• West Ottawa: 1-3

• Jenison: 1-3

• Grand Haven: 0-4

Barring any upsets this week or next, it’s all Rockford & Caledonia. The two teams will meet in Week 9 in will very likely be this year’s Game of the Year.

Grandville vs. Rockford

Here’s some highlights from the game:

DCC vs. Warren DLS

Here’s some highlights from the game:

Tracking the Champs

Let’s check in how our 2021 State Champs fared over the weekend:

In the continuation of a trend that’s been playing out all year, 3 returning State Champions lost this past weekend (GRCC, Lansing Catholic, and Pewamo-Westphalia).

GRCC’s loss in particular was quite momentous: heading into the game, they owned the State’s largest win streak, at 42 games.

With GRCC’s loss, there are now only 2 returning State Champions who have yet to lose: Belleville (Division 1) and Hudson (Division 8, now in Division 7)

Biggest Upsets

Per our computer model, there were 43 upsets last week. Below are the top 10 largest ones, ranked via the favorited team’s point spread heading into the game:

As you can see in our tweet, this week’s top upset was Bay City Central over Mt Pleasant. Mt Pleasant was previously undefeated, and BCC came into the game a whopping 45 point underdog.

BCC’s win marks the largest upset in the 3 weeks of running our Computer Model.

Other undefeated teams experiencing large upsets this week include Berrien Springs, Croswell-Lexington, and Gibraltar Carlson.

Finally, note that Brother Rice lost to Orchard Lake St Mary’s. This is interesting in two ways: 1) It was a large upset, and 2) Brother Rice had previously handed Warren DLS one of the largest upsets in the State a few weeks back.

Model Check - In

Let’s check back in on our Playoff Wizard and Goosepoop Computer Model picks - how did they do in Week 6?

Goosepoop Computer Model

• Predicted 203 out of 245 games correctly (83% Accuracy)

Playoff Wizard

• Predicted 193 out of 237 games correctly (81% Accuracy)

For the third week in a row, the Computer Model has beaten the Playoff Wizard Users!

Survivor Island

Let’s check-in on the State’s remaining unbeaten teams.

• Last week, we left you with 60 unbeaten teams. We said that that number would drop to 54 at a minimum, as many 5-0 teams were scheduled to play each other

• This week, we are now down to 45 unbeaten teams. This equates to roughly 5-6 unbeaten teams per division, or 9% of all teams

• In Week 7, we have 0 games between unbeaten teams. This means that technically speaking, there could be no change in unbeaten teams after Week 7.

• Most likely, there will be at least a few teams that fall off of survivor island this coming week. In fact, our computer model actually has 5 games where undefeated teams are projected to lose (stay tuned Thursday to find out who those teams are).

Good luck to all teams still in search of that perfect regular season!

Most Improved

Which teams have improved the most over their 2021 win totals? Check out the answer below:

Birmingham Seaholm continues to lead the field. They are favored in each of their remaining three games, so if things play out as planned, the Maples will take home the title of the State’s most improved team.

Not far behind Seaholm is Utica Eisenhower, Warren Cousino, and Wayland. All three teams have improved 4 games over their 2021 win totals.

Most Underrated

Let’s take a look at the best teams with losing records:

Not a ton of surprises here - as we’ve noted several times in this post, Brother Rice is 2-4, yet they own the only win over the top team in D2, Warren DLS

Other teams to note are Brother Rice’s conference rival, OLSM, and returning State Finalist, Traverse City Central 

Superlatives

Last Week

• Most Pts Scored: (80). Centreville over Cassopolis, 80-0

• Most Total Points Scored: (115). Tecumseh over Jackson, 69-46

• Least Total Points Scored: (13).

  • Romulus Summit over Chandler Park, 13-0

  • Dowagiac over Loy Norrix, 7-6

• Safety Alert: Mt Morris over Byron, 2-0

Season to Date

• Most Points per Game: (56.2) North Branch

• Least Points Allowed per Game: (1.2) Gladwin

• Best Offense (per computer model): (48.9) Warren DLS

• Best Defense (per computer model): (20.2) Macomb Dakota

• Toughest Schedule (per computer model): (46.6) Orchard Lake St Mary’s

• Longest Active Win Streak: (20) Hudson

We also did longer versions of our most points scored & least points allowed analyses. For those, check out our social media posts below:

Computer Rankings

Division 1

Caledonia has moved into the top spot here, replacing Macomb Dakota, who has moved down to #5 due to a closer than expected victory over Romeo.

Caledonia and Rockford will meet in Week 9 in what is right now a battle between the top 2 teams in the State

Lastly, keep an eye on Belleville - they’ve slowly climbed up the model rankings, and they now sit at #3 overall in D1. They likely won’t be tested until playoff time.

Division 2

Despite their loss to Brother Rice a few weeks ago, De La Salle retains the top spot overall.

On the West side, D2’s next two best teams, Forest Hills Central and Mona Shores, appear destined to meet early in the playoffs - perhaps the District Finals.

Division 3

The division’s reigning Champion, Detroit MLK, has taken over River Rouge for the top spot here

Brother Rice, despite being 2-4, is still quite highly regarded. The model has them at #3 in this Division.

Division 4

Not many changes here - D4 continues to look like its a race between Whitehall, South Christian, and everybody else. We will likely see this one play out in the Regional Finals.

Division 5

Not many changes here, either. Despite their loss to South Christian last week, GRCC remains highly regarded by the model - they are #2 in D5.

One other item to note: #3 Gladwin will play #6 Pontiac Notre Dame Prep this week.

Division 6

As we noted would likely happen, the UP bubble has sort of popped with Durand’s victory over Gladstone last week (there are now only two UP teams in our top 10 here, as opposed to 5).

Watch out this week as Gladstone and Negaunee square off in what will likely be the UP’s best game this season.

Division 7

This division has seen the least amount of change: TCSF, Hudson, and New Lothrop continue to lead the field.

Watch out for Lumen Christi, however. Despite starting 0-3, they’ve slowly climbed their way back into the top 5.

Division 8

The model continues to like Iron Mountain a lot, but this may change a bit next week, after Negaunee takes on Gladstone (Negaunee is Iron Mountain’s lone loss)

Also, note the difference in ratings between Iron Mountain, Whiteford, and everybody else …. the model is saying that these two teams are basically 3 scores above the rest of the field!

Next Week

Week 7 is shaping up to be a huge week. Here’s where all the best games will be:

Top 5 Games Overall

• Hudsonville (#17, D1) vs. Rockford (#2, D1)

• Romeo (#14, D1) vs. Chip Valley (#9, D1)

• Dakota (#5, D1) vs. Eisenhower (#20, D1)

• Adams (#7, D1) vs. Stoney Creek (#18, D1)

• Clarkston (#10, D1) vs. Lake Orion (#23, D1)

Top Game in Every Division

• D1: Eisenhower (#20, D1) vs. Dakota (#5, D1)

• D2: Waterford Mott (#23, D2) vs. Walled Lake Western (#6, D3)

• D3: Zeeland West (#5, D3) vs. Reeths Puffer (#22, D2)

• D4: Chelsea (#14, D4) vs. Tecumseh (#6, D4)

• D5: Gladwin (#3, D5) vs. Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (#6, D5)

• D6: Gladstone (#4, D6) vs. Negaunee (#5, D6)

• D7: Lawon (#5, D7) vs. Schoolcraft (#10, D7)

• D8: Saginaw MLS (#4, D8) vs. Ithaca (#6, D7)

Games Between Undefeated Teams

• None this Week :(

And that’s all for Week 6, guys! Thanks again for taking the time to read this week’s wrap-up.

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