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Week 6 2023 MHSAA Football Preview
Three 5-0 Matchups, does the loser of OLSM / Rouge make the playoffs, and more
Hi Everyone -
Goosepoop #76 is here!
Here’s the lineup for today’s note:
Computer Rankings: Our top 10 rankings for every division
Feature Games: projections for the week’s biggest games
Undefeated Matchups: projections for the games between 5-0 teams
Undefeated No More: games where undefeated teams are expected to lose
‘Bubble’ Games: Our Computer Model has detected games this week that are *essentially* playoff games
Potential Playoff Rematches: games between teams with a high likelihood of rematching in Round 1 of the playoffs
Pick’ Em Games: Games that our computer model has deemed 50/50 win probabilities
Coach’s Poll: The Week 5 Coach’s Poll is out!
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Week 5 Computer Rankings
We dropped Week 5 computer rankings on all of our socials the other night
Click the below post and swipe to see the top 10 in each division:
Don’t see your team ranked?
Don’t sweat: we’ve ranked all 495 11-man teams on Goosepoop Pro
Week 6 Feature Games
East Grand Rapids (5-0) vs. Forest Hills Central (4-1)
After last week’s 1-point overtime defeat to D2 #2 Byron Center, defending D2 runner-up FHC is back with another top 3 opponent. This time, they’ll face potential playoff opponent D3 #3 East Grand Rapids (we have the two teams squaring off again in the District Finals 30% of the time). If that weren’t enough, the game also has conference title implications: our computer says this particular matchup is the second in a round-robin to decide the Champion of the OK White. Byron Center vs. EGR will finish the slate in Week 8.
Spread: FHC -5
Win Probability: FHC 55%
Clarkston (3-2) vs. West Bloomfield (4-1)
Clarkston surprised many this week when they showed up in the Computer Model’s Division 1 top 10. Why? Because they’ve now jumped both teams that have defeated them thus far this year (Northville and Southfield, while both 5-0, sit just outside the computer’s top 10 at #13 and #15, respectively). So I chose this game as a referendum on the computer model: we have Clarkston keeping it very, very close. So close, they just might win.
Spread: West Bloomfield -3
Win Probability: West Bloomfield 53%
Dakota (4-1) vs. Romeo (3-2)
The MAC Red is likely the toughest conference in the State this year. All 6 teams are ranked inside our Division 1 Top 20, and we’re projecting each one to make the playoffs. That means every matchup is & will be a dogfight, this one included. Romeo, whilst 3-2, is in pull position for the conference after Dakota’s loss to Chippewa Valley last week. Will Dakota pull the Bulldogs back into a conference tie of sorts? The computer says this is quite possible: Dakota and Romeo is the closest projected spread in the State this week, with Dakota favored by just 1 tenth of a point.
Spread: PICK ‘EM
Win Probability: 50/50
Hudsonville (4-1) vs. Caledonia (4-1)
In the past few years, the OK Red’s hierarchy has featured clear separation between its top (Grandville / Caledonia / Rockford) and its middle (Hudsonville / East Kentwood). The computer believes that Hudsonville has covered a lot of ground towards flipping this narrative: we have the Eagles as just a 5 point underdog to the defending D1 Runner-Up Caledonia. Follow this one to see if we’re right.
Spread: Caledonia -5
Win Probability: Caledonia 55%
Someone Has To Lose
There are 55 undefeated 11-Man teams in the State. SIX of these teams are squaring off this weekend:
Belleville (5-0) vs. Westland John Glenn (5-0)
Spread: Belleville -31
Win Probability: Belleville 96%
Corunna (5-0) vs. Goodrich (5-0)
Spread: Corunna -9
Win Probability: Corunna 65%
Almont (5-0) vs. Cros-Lex (5-0)
Spread: Cros-Lex -2
Win Probability: Cros-Lex 52%
Undefeated No More?
Outside of our 3 undefeated matchups, below is one other game where an undefeated team is projected to lose:
Grand Ledge (5-0) vs. DeWitt (2-2)
Spread: DeWitt -11
Win Probability: DeWitt 73%
Beware: the computer had Grand Ledge as a 3 touchdown underdog in this game last year, yet the Comets still prevailed. Will they pull the upset again this year?
Our computer model has detected FIVE games between teams who are ‘on the bubble’ for the playoffs. These should be treated like playoff games: win, and you’re in. Lose, and you’re likely out.
River Rouge (1-4) vs. Orchard Lake St Mary’s (2-3)
River Rouge Playoff Odds: 46%
Orchard Lake St Mary’s Playoff Odds: 69%
Spread: OLSM -7
Win Probability: OLSM 59%
Both Orchard Lake and River Rouge are ranked in the Top 10 of their division. Despite that, the computer doesn’t see a world where both make the playoffs. Consider this a must-win game for both teams.
Traverse City West (2-3) vs. Midland (3-2)
Midland makes an appearance in this section for the second week in a row. With last week’s loss to Traverse City Central, their playoff odds have slipped from 64% to 37%. The Chemics (and the Titans) need this game to still have a shot at the playoffs.
North Farmington (2-3) vs. Oak Park (2-3)
North Farmington Playoff Odds: 45%
Oak Park Playoff Odds: 49%
Spread: North Farmington -6
Win Probability: North Farmington 57%
Warren Woods Tower (2-3) vs. Warren Fitzgerald (2-3)
Warren Woods Tower Playoff Odds: 44%
Warren Fitzgerald Playoff Odds: 38%
Spread: Warren Fitzgerald -4
Win Probability: Warren Fitzgerald 54%
Lakeview (2-3) vs. Remus Chippewa Hills (2-3)
Lakeview Playoff Odds: 46%
Chippewa Hills Playoff Odds: 43%
Spread: Chippewa Hills -5
Win Probability: Chippewa Hills 55%
Note: This one is actually happening tonight (Thursday, September 28th)
We’re projecting that 3 matchups this weekend have a high likelihood (>30%) of happening again in Round 1 of the Playoffs:
Spring Lake (4-1) vs. Allendale (5-0)
Spread: Allendale -5
Win Probability: Allendale 55%
Rochester Adams (3-2) vs. Lake Orion (5-0)
Spread: Lake Orion -9
Win Probability: Lake Orion 65%
Fenton (4-1) vs. Linden (4-1)
Spread: Fenton -6
Win Probability: Fenton 57%
Who’s your team projected to face in Round 1 of the Playoffs?
Outside of Dakota / Romeo, there’s only one other 11-man game projected as a PICK ‘EM:
Bath (3-2) vs. Laingsburg (2-3)
Spread: PICK ‘EM
Win Probability: 50/50
What’s the projection for my team’s game?
Don’t see your team listed here?
We’ve got every.single.game projected on Goosepoop Pro.
Check it out right here
MHSFCA Coaches Poll
Last thing here!
The MHSFCA Coach’s Poll has been updated for Week 5
Check out how the State’s Coaches have teams ranked right here
That’s all for today guys!
Thanks again for reading my note.
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