Week 5 2023 MHSAA Football Preview
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Week 5 2023 MHSAA Football Preview
Undefeated teams projected to lose, potential playoff rematches, & more
Hi Everyone -
Goosepoop #74 is here!
Here’s the lineup for today’s note:
Computer Rankings: Our top 10 rankings for every division (new edition this week: 8-man!)
Feature Games: point spreads & win probabilities for the week’s biggest games
Undefeated Matchups: point spreads & win probabilities for the games between 4-0 teams
Undefeated No More: games where undefeated teams are expected to lose
‘Bubble’ Games: Our Computer Model has detected games this week that are *essentially* playoff games
[NEW SECTION] Potential Playoff Rematches: games between teams with a high likelihood of rematching in Round 1 of the playoffs
Pick’ Em Games: Games that our computer model has deemed 50/50 win probabilities
Coach’s Poll: The Week 4 Coach’s Poll is out!
We’re also closing in on 2,000 subscribers.
Who will be lucky number 2,000?
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I put out all of the below projections for free.
But, these aren’t the *ONLY* projections our computer model is making….
…. we actually have a projection for *EVERY* game in the State this weekend.
We also have live playoff odds, projected first round opponents, and week-to-week trend analysis for every team in the State
Interested?
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Week 4 Computer Rankings
We dropped Week 4 computer rankings on all of our socials Monday night
If you click the below post, you’ll be able to swipe through the top 10 in each division (including both 8-man divisions)
Ok, so you read the rankings. But you’re still curious how your team’s ranking changed from last week…..
You’re in luck.
We post each team’s week-over-week change on Goosepoop Pro (pic below):
Sign up for Goosepoop Pro to see every team’s week-to-week change!
Week 5 Feature Games
Forest Hills Central (4-0) vs. Byron Center (4-0)
A big one in the OK White. Both teams are undefeated, and both teams are rated in #3 in their divisions (FHC is #3 in D3, BC is #3 in D2). Despite all of this, the computer still thinks this game is simply a battle for #2 in the Conference: we have EGR rated as a 1 point favorite over FHC and a 2 point favorite over BC.
Spread: Forest Hills Central -1
Win Probability: 51% Forest Hills Central
De La Salle (2-2) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (3-1)
If this were pre-2023, you would say this game is the battle for the CHSL championship. Now that we have the Toledo schools involved, that’s not the case…. but winner still gets in-state bragging rights. DCC’s computer rating is certainly on the rise after last week: their win over Orchard Lake has vaulted them 13 spots in the D1 rankings. Can they keep the momentum going?
Spread: De La Salle -17
Win Probability: 82% De La Salle
Chippewa Valley (2-2) vs. Macomb Dakota (4-0)
A classic rivalry game between two schools who share a school district. Dakota has won the last four… will that continue? Regardless of who wins, we think there’s a high likelihood that these two rematch in round 1 of the playoffs: our computer assigns that scenario a 38% chance.
Spread: Macomb Dakota -6
Win Probability: 57% Macomb Dakota
Hudsonville (4-0) vs. Grandville (3-1)
An almost identical matchup to the Chip Valley / Dakota game. These schools don’t share a district, but they do share a border. They also have the second-highest likelihood of rematching in round 1: at 81% odds, we think that scenario almost certainly occurs.
Spread: Grandville -14
Win Probability: 79% Grandville
Zeeland East (4-0) vs. Zeeland West (4-0)
Roll it again! Our 5th and final game is the 3rd straight rivalry game. Like Dakota & Chip Valley, these two schools DO share a district…. they even share a STADIUM. However, unlike the previous two, we actually think these two are not doomed to rematch in R1: we assign that scenario only a 16% chance (however…. as for round 2, that’s a different story).
Spread: Zeeland West -20
Win Probability: 85% Zeeland West
Quick question before you scroll on:
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Check out my top 5 takeaways from the data at the link below:
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Someone has to lose
There are SEVEN games between undefeated teams this week (two of which I already covered above). Here’s the other FIVE:
West Catholic vs. Spring Lake
Spread: West Catholic -21
Win Probability: 87% West Catholic
A bit of a head-scratcher here: WC beat Coopersville by 3, while Spring Lake beat them by 1. So you’d expect the spread to be MUCH closer.
Manistee vs. Whitehall
Spread: Whitehall -21
Win Probability: 87% Whitehall
Michigan Collegiate vs. Detroit Edison
Spread: MI Collegiate -26
Win Probability: 93% Michigan Collegiate
Hart vs. North Muskegon
Spread: North Muskegon -23
Win Probability: 89% North Muskegon
Fun fact: Hart is 4-0 for the first time since Kennedy was President. Well done!
Grass Lake vs. Napoleon
Spread: Napoleon -21
Win Probability: 87% Napoleon
The Pirates are on their way to back-to-back undefeated regular seasons
Undefeated No More?
Outside of our SEVEN undefeated matchups, we also have SEVEN more game where undefeated teams are projected to lose:
Lapeer (4-0) vs. Saginaw Heritage (2-2)
Spread: Heritage -12
Win Probability: 77% Heritage
White Pigeon (4-0) vs. Centreville (2-2)
Spread: Centreville -7
Win Probability: 59% Centreville
Montrose (4-0) vs. Chesaning (3-1)
Spread: Chesaning -12
Win Probability: 77% Chesaning
Hudsonville (4-0) vs. Grandville (3-1)
Spread: Grandville -14
Win Probability: 79% Grandville
We already projected this one up above, but I’m including it here to be complete
Adrian (4-0) vs. Chelsea (3-1)
Spread: Chelsea -8
Win Probability: 61% Chelsea
Allegan (4-0) vs. South Haven (2-2)
Spread: South Haven -22
Win Probability: 88% South Haven
Petersburg-Summerfield (4-0) vs. Erie Mason (1-3)
Spread: Erie Mason -21
Win Probability: 87% Erie Mason
The model got burned by Petersburg-Summerfield last week. Will it happen again? This isn’t an out of state matchup, so no excuses for it this time!
‘Bubble’ Games
These two games are between teams who are on the bubble for the playoffs….. thus, they are essentially playoff games. Win and you’re in. Lose and you’re probably out.
Midland (3-1) vs. Traverse City Central (1-3)
Midland Playoff Odds: 64%
Traverse City Central Playoff Odds: 49%
Spread: Midland -1
Win Probability: Midland 51%
Charlotte (3-1) vs. Ionia (2-2)
Charlotte Playoff Odds: 58%
Ionia Playoff Odds: 46%
Spread: Ionia -6
Win Probability: Ionia 57%
*NOT* 1-and-done
These SIX games have greater than 35% chances of rematching in Round 1 of the Playoffs.
Harbor Beach (3-1) vs. Marlette (3-1)
Spread: Harbor Beach -8
Win Probability: Harbor Beach 61%
Woah….. the single highest round 1 rematch probability is this game. Keep me honest: someone remind me if this rematch *DOES NOT* end up happening.
Grandville (3-1) vs. Hudsonville (4-0)
We’ve beat this one to death here, but just so you have it:
Spread: Grandville -14
Win Probability: Grandville 79%
Benzie Central (2-2) vs. Charlevoix (3-1)
Spread: Charlevoix -19
Win Probability: Charlevoix 84%
Benzie & Charlevoix played first round last year, with Benzie scoring a nice upset. We predict they get two cracks at each other this year.
Chippewa Valley (2-2) vs. Macomb Dakota (4-0)
Spread: Dakota -6
Win Probability: Dakota 57%
Again, we’ve beat this one to death. But just so you have it.
Chelsea (3-1) vs. Adrian (4-0)
Spread: Chelsea -8
Win Probability: Chelsea 61%
My final repeat on here!
Cadillac (3-1) vs. Gaylord (4-0)
Spread: Gaylord -22
Win Probability: Gaylord 88%
Coin Flip
Troy (3-1) vs. North Farmington (1-3)
Spread: PICK ‘EM
Win Probability: 50/50
Detroit MLK (1-3) vs. Detroit East English (4-0)
Spread: PICK ‘EM
Win Probability: 50/50
Do you believe this projection? I don’t, but it’s what our computer is spitting out. Remember, it has difficulties with out of state games. Half of MLK’s games have been out of state thus far, so perhaps that’s a factor here.
Don’t See Your Team’s Game Projected?
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MHSFCA Coaches Poll
Last thing here!
The MHSFCA Coach’s Poll has been updated for Week 4
Check out how the State’s Coaches have teams ranked right here
That’s all for today guys!
Thanks again for reading my note. If you’ve yet to subscribe, please do so below.
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Week 5 2023 MHSAA Football Preview
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