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Week 5 2022 Preview
Spreads & Over/Unders for Each of Our Top Games
Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #41!
Today is our fifth of 14 weekly previews.
For this week’s post, we’re going to have a very similar format to the last two weeks:
Big Games: A brief overview of 2-5 of the State’s biggest games
Fun Facts: A smattering of ‘fun facts’ about matchups occurring that week
Other Info: General football information (polls, etc.)
Lastly, if you haven’t checked out our Week 4 Wrap-Up, I highly suggest you read that before continuing (link below).
Before we jump into post, I want to take a second and thank you guys, the members of our community. The support we receive from you all is the reason we continue to post these updates, and we are proud to say that we now have over 708 subscribers! Let’s keep pushing to 1000!
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Week 5 Big Games
If Week 5 were a one word theme, we’d call it “Finally”.
For weeks, we’ve been telling you about the potential for undefeated matchups between D1 heavyweights in this portion of the schedule.
Well, that day is finally here - in Week 5’s featured games, we’ve got two conference battles between 4-0 teams.
On the East side of the State, Dakota and Chippewa Valley are squaring off. Both are 4-0, and, perhaps more importantly, both are in the same school district. That means, beyond the mere importance of the game itself, the outcome also has implications that are much farther reaching: 12 months of bragging rights.
As for who will obtain said bragging rights, both our Computer Model AND the Playoff Wizard Users agree: Dakota will be taking home the trophy this year. Dig a little deeper and you’ll see why: while both programs have similar offensive capabilities (Chip Valley actually has the slight edge), Dakota’s defensive showings have been more impressive. And that’s the edge here: we like Dakota in a low scoring affair, 16-11.
Cross the State in the other direction and you’ll end up near our other game of the week: OK Red foes Grandville & Caledonia square off in the first of a three game round-robin between these teams and fellow OK Red undefeated, Rockford.
Last year, the OK Red hierarchy looked like this:
Will it look like this again? This Friday is when we begin to find out.
If our model (and the Playoff Wizard Users) have anything to say about it, the answer to this question will be a resounding ‘YES’: we’ve got Caledonia with a 6 point edge in a back-and-forth, offensive showdown, 41-35.
Macomb Dakota vs. Chippewa Valley
Grandville vs. Caledonia
4 Sets of Fun Facts for Week 5
The Best Game in Every Division
As with every week, let’s check in on the best game in every Division:
Take a look at the Freeland vs. Frankenmuth projection.
While our model has the game as basically a pick ‘em (Freeland is slightly favored), the Playoff Wizard Users HEAVILY disagree …. 91% of them have selected Frankenmuth to win the game.
What do the Playoff Wizard Users know that our model doesn’t?
Tracking the Champs
Let’s also check in on 2021’s reigning State Champs:
Two games to turn your attention to this week:
GRCC vs. Forest Hills Eastern, and
Pewamo-Westphalia vs. Fowler
Both are conference matchups, and both have closer than you’d expect spreads (GRCC and P-W are both 4 point favorites).
However, once again, our Playoff Wizard Users seem to disagree with the model’s projections: both games have overwhelming support for the favorites, with GRCC garnering 76% and P-W garnering 92% of all votes.
Let’s see who’s right - we obviously think both games will be closer than everyone else.
Games Between 4-0 Teams
There are SEVEN matchups between undefeated teams this week (that number keeps on dropping - it was ELEVEN last week).
Some of these have already been covered up above, but there’s a few that haven’t (Brighton vs. Northville).
Finally, let’s talk about some other Week 5 fun facts that the model is spitting out:
Game w/ the highest over/under: (94) Saginaw Heritage vs. Lapeer
Game w/ the lowest over/under: (9)
Grosse Pointe Liggett vs. Clarkston Everest
Farmington vs. Troy
Pick ‘em Games: (4)
Allegan vs. South Haven
Shepherd vs. Godwin Heights
Detroit Voyageur vs. Harper Woods Chandler Park
Detroit East English vs. Detroit Mumford
Other Useful Information
The Week 5 Coaches Poll was just released on Tuesday. Check it out here if you’d like to see how the State’s coaches are ranking the teams in all 8 11-man divisions:
That’s all for today! We hope everyone has a great Week 5.
Check back here on Monday for the next edition of our Goosepoop Computer Ratings.
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