Week 5 2022 Computer Rankings

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #42!

Today is our fifth of fourteen weekly wrap-ups, where we digest all of the week’s high school football action & put a bow on what we’ve learned and where we’re headed.

In today’s note, we’ve got the following sections:

• Big Game Review - a brief review of our 2 feature games from last week

• Tracking the Champs - game results for each of the State’s 2021 Champions

• Biggest Upsets - the 10 largest upsets from around the State

• Model Check-In - how each of our models fared in picking the results of Week 5 games

• Survivor Island - a count of the State’s unbeaten teams

• Most Improved - a look at which teams have improved the most this year

• Most Underrated - a look at the top 10 teams with losing records

• Superlatives - a smattering of other Week 5 fun facts

• Computer Ratings - our inaugural 2022 computer ratings for every division

• Next Week - where next week’s biggest games are

Scroll on to check them out!

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Big Game Review

Both of our feature games from Week 5 were quite entertaining.

Our over/under hit in each contest, and the favorites followed suit: Dakota covered their 5 point spread (they won 28-17), and Caledonia covered their 6 point spread (they won 50-40).

With the wins, our two champs are now firmly cemented atop Division 1 (and all of the State for that matter). Dakota is #1, and Caledonia is #2.

By being ranked ahead of Caledonia, you’re seeing that Dakota is being credited for a slightly more difficult schedule thus far. However, if these two teams were to meet tomorrow, our model would actually favorite the lesser ranked team: we have Caledonia by 5 points.

Let’s hope we see this one come November!

Macomb Dakota vs. Chippewa Valley

Here’s some highlights from the game:

Grandville vs. Caledonia

Here’s some highlights from the game:

Tracking the Champs

Pewamo-Westphalia was the lone returning State Champ to lose in Week 5. The Pirates dropped their rivalry game to Fowler.

Several of our returning State Champs have HUGE games in Week 6: Warren DLS plays DCC, and GR Catholic Central plays South Christian

Biggest Upsets

Gull Lake’s win over Three Rivers was our largest upset of the week. Coming into the game, we had Gull Lake as a 32 point underdog.

Also sneaking in there at #10 was Adams over West Bloomfield - with the upset, the Highlanders have now completed a perfect OAA round robin: Adams beat West Bloomfield who beat Clarkston who beat Adams.

Finally, our #4 team in D2 (Heritage), was upset by Lapeer. The Hawks have since slid in the rankings (see below), with Lapeer bumping up to #19 in Division 1.

Model Check - In

Let’s check back in on our Playoff Wizard and Goosepoop Computer Model picks - how did they do in Week 5?

Goosepoop Computer Model

• Predicted 208 out of 248 games correctly (84% Accuracy)

Playoff Wizard

• Predicted 126 out of 162 games correctly (78% Accuracy)

For the second week in a row, the Computer Model has beaten the Playoff Wizard Users!

Survivor Island

Let’s check-in on the State’s remaining unbeaten teams.

• Last week, we left you with 74 unbeaten teams. We said that that number would drop to 67 at a minimum, as many 4-0 teams were scheduled to play each other

• This week, we are now down to 60 unbeaten teams. This equates to roughly 7-8 unbeaten teams per division, or about 12% of all teams

• In Week 6, we have 5 games between unbeaten teams. This means that at most, there will be 54 unbeaten teams after Week 6. Very likely, the actual number will be less than that.

Good luck to all teams still in search of that perfect regular season!

Most Improved

Seaholm continues to sit atop our most improved rankings, with a record of 5-0. There may not be any teams in the State capable of catching them.

Most Underrated

In a continuation of a new segment from last week, let’s take a look at the best teams with losing records.

Brother Rice, who has losses to East Kentwood (D1 #12), DCC (D1 #7), and Dakota (D1 #1), is our best team here.

Other teams to note are 1-4 Hudsonville and Orchard Lake St Mary’s - both are very good teams who may be on the outside looking in come playoff time, solely due to their strength of schedule.

Superlatives

Last Week

• Most Pts Scored: (74). North Branch over Hamtramck, 74-6

• Most Total Points Scored: (92). Unity Christian over Hamilton, 55-37

• Least Total Points Scored: (6). Detroit Mumford over East English, 6-0

• Safety Alert: South Christian over Thornapple Kellogg, 43-2 AND Detroit Douglass over Detroit Community, 22-2

Season to Date

• Most Points per Game: (55.2). Belleville

• Least Points Allowed per Game: (1.4). Gladwin, Detroit Northwestern

• Best Offense (per computer model): (42.2 Rating). Southfield A&T.

• Best Defense (per computer model): (16.1 Rating). Macomb Dakota

• Toughest Schedule (per computer model): Orchard Lake St Mary’s

• Longest Active Win Streak: (42). Grand Rapids Catholic Central.

We also did longer versions of our most points scored & least points allowed analyses. For those, check out our social media posts below:

Computer Rankings

Division 1

Macomb Dakota is your new #1 - the win over Chippewa Valley has propelled them to the top spot.

Also, returning State Champion Belleville makes their first appearance here at #10. They will keep climbing if they continue to win - the model is punishing them for a weak schedule thus far.

Division 2

No huge changes here, except for surging Mona Shores. Their huge win over GR Union has bumped them up a few spots to #5.

The Sailors play Zeeland West this week, and, if they continue their trend, they will surely jump another few spots in Week 6’s ratings.

Division 3

River Rouge maintains the top spot, despite their loss to St Ignatius this past week.

Division 4

South Christian plays Grand Rapids Catholic Central this week in a battle between undefeated top teams.

Division 5

Similar to D4, Muskegon Oakridge plays Whitehall this week in a battle between undefeated top teams.

Division 6

The model is still showing its UP bias, with 5 out of 10 teams in D6 hailing from that portion of the State.

That should rectify itself in a big way this week, as Gladstone is playing Durand. If Gladstone loses, you can expect a huge shakeup in the rankings.

Division 7

Not a lot of movement here, although New Lothrop does play Montrose this week

Division 8

D8 has an issue similar to D6: there’s a strong amount of UP bias in the model (4 of 10 teams are from that area).

Look for this to start to sort itself out this week when Gladstone takes on Durand.

Next Week

Week 6 is shaping up to be a huge week. Here’s where all the best games will be:

Top 5 Games Overall

• Grandville (#5, D1) vs. Rockford (#3, D1)

• DCC (#7, D1) vs. Warren DLS (#1, D2)

• Macomb Dakota (#1, D1) vs. Romeo (#12, D1)

• East Kentwood (#14, D1) vs. Caledonia (#2, D1)

• Davison (#9, D1) vs. Walled Lake Western (#3, D3)

Top Game in Every Division

• D1: Grandville (#5, D1) vs. Rockford (#3, D1)

• D2: DCC (#7, D1) vs. Warren DLS (#1, D2)

• D3: Davison (#9, D1) vs. Walled Lake Western (#3, D3)

• D4: South Christian (#1, D4) vs. GRCC (#2, D5)

• D5: Muskegon Oakridge (#4, D5) vs. Whitehall (#2, D4)

• D6: Gladstone (#2, D6) vs. Durand (#9, D6)

• D7: New Lothrop (#4, D7) vs. Montrose (#9, D7)

• D8: Detroit Leadership (#9, D8) vs. Warren Michigan Collegiate (#19, D6)

Games Between Undefeated Teams

• GRCC vs. South Christian

• Muskegon Oakridge vs. Whitehall

• Durand vs. Gladstone

• Clinton vs. Dundee

• Boyne City vs. Charlevoix

And that’s all for Week 5, guys! Thanks again for taking the time to read this week’s wrap-up.

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