Week 4 2023 MHSAA Football Preview

Hi Everyone!

Welcome back to Goosepoop #72!

Today’s note features the unveil of 2023’s computer model.

Scroll below to find:

• Computer Rankings: Our top 10 rankings for every division (save for 8-man…. those start next week)

• Feature Games: point spreads & win probabilities for the week’s biggest games

• Undefeated Matchups: point spreads & win probabilities for the games between 3-0 teams

• Undefeated No More: games where undefeated teams are expected to lose

• ‘Bubble’ Games: Our Computer Model has detected games this week that are *essentially* playoff games

• Pick’ Em Games: the 5 games in the State that our computer model has deemed 50/50 win probabilities

• Coach’s Poll: The Week 3 Coach’s Poll is out!

As always, if you like what we write, please subscribe & share below. It’s the best way for us to grow!

A Long Time Coming

I launched this to our website last night:

We also have this screen for every team:

And this one as well (that’s Davison’s first round playoff opponent projection):

As many of you know, this website addition is a *LONG* time coming - I first talked about this on our newsletter last fall. So thanks for your patience!

If you’re interested in viewing this data, you can subscribe on our website for just $15/month (Check it out here)

We’ll be updating it weekly for the remainder of the season (playoffs included).

One more thing:

I know many of you have little use for our basketball & baseball data, which will be available on this site as well…..

That’s perfectly understandable.

Because of that, I’ve made it *SUPER EASY* for your to unsubscribe from the monthly charge once the season is over.

When you’re ready, simply click the ‘Manage Your Subscription’ button that you see in the lower left of your screen (pic below). Your subscription will cease to run after that.

Thanks everyone - I really appreciate your support!

• Sign Up for Goosepoop Pro

Week 3 Computer Rankings

Ah - our first computer rankings of the year.

Pro tip: if you want to be lambasted by 18 year olds, develop an algorithm to rank teams, and then post that to the internet

You will, without fail, receive hate

Want to read the funniest comments?

Click our rankings post below to see them (you’ll have to swipe to see all 8 divisions):

Don’t see your team ranked?

Our new website has every team in every division, ranked top to bottom.

Check that out for just $15/month, right here 

(updated weekly)

Feature Games

Rockford (3-0) vs. Caledonia (3-0)

Remember last year? Rockford & Cal were #1 & 2 in our D1 computer rankings for most of the year. Rockford won the regular season matchup, only to turnaround and lose by 1 point to Caledonia in round 2 of the playoffs.

Well, both teams are undefeated once more, and the Rams will get their chance at revenge tonight….. and wow, does the computer have a big line out on this one. I’m not sure if I believe the Rams by 4+ touchdowns, but that’s what the computer’s throwing out there.

• Spread: Rockford -30

• Win Probability: Rockford 96%

Mona Shores (2-1) vs. Muskegon (1-2)

When’s the last time Muskegon started 1-3? 1999. The computer projects that to change this evening - we have Shores by 7, which represents a 59% win probability. However - fear not, Big Reds fans. Despite the slow start, the Computer still projects Muskegon to make the playoffs in 98.9% of scenarios. We even think they’re the 4th best team in Division 2…. they just happened to have played the #1 team in D1 (Rockford), #1 team in D2 (De La Salle), and #2 team in D2 (Mona Shores). That is almost certainly the State’s toughest schedule.

• Spread: Shores -7

• Win Probability: Shores 59%

Lake Orion (3-0) vs. West Bloomfield (3-0)

Barring upsets, the computer says three things about this game: 1) It features the #5 & #6 teams in D1 2) It will decide the OAA Red Championship 3) It is a pick’em

• Spread: PICK ‘EM

• Win Probability: 50 / 50

Toledo Central Catholic (4-0) vs. Warren De La Salle (2-1)

Speaking of pseudo - conference championships, I would predict that this one decides the winner of the CHSL Central. TCC has dispatched of Brother Rice and DCC, but they’ll face their toughest foe yet in D2 #1 De La Salle. I don’t have a computer projection for this one (that I stand by)…. the out of state teams make this one too difficult to project on only 3 weeks of data.

Games Between Undefeated Teams

Ubly vs. Harbor Beach

• Spread: Harbor Beach -5

• Win Probability: Harbor Beach 55%

Allendale vs. Hamilton

• Spread: Allendale -13

• Win Probability: Allendale 78%

Lumen Christi vs. U-D Jesuit

• Spread: U-D Jesuit -26

• Win Probability: UDJ 93%

Note: that’s a crazy line to have spit out. I would still favor UDJ, but I think Lumen Christi’s rating gets messed with because they pull off the gas early against inferior opponents (the instagram commenters agree). We’ll see, and if the computer’s wrong, it will be fixed for next week.

Romulus Summit Academy vs. Michigan Collegiate

• Spread: MI Collegiate -42

• Win Probability: MI Collegiate 99%

Houghton Lake vs. Beal City

• Spread: Beal City -26

• Win Probability: Beal City 93%

Lansing Sexton vs. Charlotte

• Spread: Sexton -19

• Win Probability: Sexton 84%

Union City vs. Saugatuck

• Spread: Saugatuck -26

• Win Probability: Saugatuck 93%

Napoleon vs. Manchester

• Spread: Manchester -17

• Win Probability: Manchester 82%

Games Where Undefeated Teams are Projected to Lose

Gaylord (3-0) vs. Petoskey (2-1)

• Spread: PICK ‘EM

• Win Probability: 50/50

Spring Lake (3-0) vs. Coopersville (2-1)

• Spread: Coopersville -8

• Win Probability: Coopersville 61%

Northview (3-0) vs. Lowell (2-1)

• Spread: Lowell -3

• Win Probability: Lowell 53%

Birch Run (3-0) vs. Frankenmuth (2-1)

• Spread: Frankenmuth -20

• Win Probability: Frankenmuth 85%

East English (3-0) vs. Henry Ford (1-2)

• Spread: Henry Ford -9

• Win Probability: Henry Ford 65%

Sandusky (3-0) vs. Marlette (2-1)

• Spread: Marlette -18

• Win Probability: Marlette 83%

Parchment (3-0) vs. Dowagiac (2-1)

• Spread: Dowagiac -36

• Win Probability: Dowagiac 97%

Petersburg Summerfield (3-0) vs. West Unity Hilltop (OH) (0-4)

• Spread: Hilltop -22

• Win Probability: Hilltop 22%

Same comment here as with De La Salle. I don’t stand by this projection…. I have difficulties rating the out of state teams properly!

Forest Hills Eastern (3-0) vs. South Christian (2-1)

• Spread: South Christian -9

• Win Probability: South Christian 65%

Gladwin (3-0) vs. Clare (2-1)

• Spread: Clare -14

• Win Probability: Clare 79%

This is a great rivalry game featuring the returning D5 State Champion (Gladwin), and a Clare team that is highly regarded by our computer. It will be well covered on Twitter by michfbfrenzy. Make sure you check this one out…. it just nearly missed our feature game list.

Hudson (3-0) vs. Ida (1-2)

• Spread: Ida - 36

• Win Probability: 97% Ida

I received some flack on the Friday Night Victors podcast for this one. They’re probably right, the line is WAY to large. But I still like the Blue Streaks!

Schoolcraft (3-0) vs. Constantine (2-1)

• Spread: Constantine -1

• Win Probability: 51% Constantine

Montrose (3-0) vs. Ovid-Elise (2-1)

• Spread: Ovid-Elsie -19

• Win Probability: 84% Ovid-Elsie

Grass Lake (3-0) vs. East Jackson (2-1)

• Spread: East Jackson -17

• Win Probability: 82% East Jackson

‘Bubble’ Games

These 3 games are all between teams with 30 - 70% playoff odds (per our computer model). As such, we are deeming them ‘Bubble’ games …. if we’re correct, they are essentially playoff games - win, and you’re in. Lose, and you’re out.

Grosse Ile (1-2) vs. Milan (2-1)

• Grosse Ile Playoff Odds: 57.5%

• Milan Playoff Odds: 47.5%

• Spread: Grosse Ile -8

• Win Probability: Gross Ile 61%

Traverse City St Francis (1-2) vs. Grayling (2-1)

• TCSF Playoff Odds: 35.2%

• Grayling Playoff Odds: 44.1%

• Spread: TCSF -2

• Win Probability: TCSF 52%

East English (3-0) vs. Henry Ford (1-2)

• East English Playoff Odds: 69.6%

• Henry Ford Playoff Odds: 64.4%

• Spread: Henry Ford -9

• Win Probability: Henry Ford 65%

Pick ‘Em Games

All games below feature spreads that are nil. Two of them we’ve already discussed above!

Gaylord (3-0) vs. Petoskey (2-1)

Waterford Kettering (0-3) vs. South Lyon East (1-2)

Lake Orion (3-0) vs. West Bloomfield (3-0)

Ludington (2-1) vs. Oakridge (1-2)

Hanover-Horton (0-3) vs. Jonesville (0-3)

Don’t See Your Team’s Game Projected?

Don’t sweat - we’ve got every.single.game projected on our new website

Check it out for only $15 / month right here

(updated weekly)

MHSFCA Coaches Poll

Last thing here!

The MHSFCA Coach’s Poll has been updated for Week 3

Check out how the State’s Coaches have teams ranked right here

That’s all for today guys!

Thanks again for reading my note. If you’ve yet to subscribe, please do so below. It’s Free!