Week 4 2022 Computer Rankings

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #40!

Today is our fourth of fourteen weekly wrap-ups, where we digest all of the week’s high school football action & put a bow on what we’ve learned and where we’re headed.

In today’s note, we’ve got the following sections:

• Big Game Review - a brief review of our 2 feature games from last week

• Tracking the Champs - game results for each of the State’s 2021 Champions

• Biggest Upsets - the 10 largest upsets from around the State

• Model Check-In - how each of our models fared in picking the results of Week 3 games

• Survivor Island - a count of the State’s unbeaten teams

• Most Improved - a look at which teams have improved the most this year

• Most Underrated - a look at the top 10 teams with losing records

• Superlatives - a smattering of other Week 4 fun facts

• Computer Ratings - our inaugural 2022 computer ratings for every division

• Next Week - where next week’s biggest games are

Scroll on to check them out!

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Big Game Review

Clarkston vs. West Bloomfield

Fresh off their Week 3 upset of Rochester Adams, Clarkston traveled to West Bloomfield for a matchup of top 10 Division 1 squads. As expected, the game was back and forth for most of the way through, with West Bloomfield ultimately prevailing, 35-27. 

As for what this game tells us, it’s not much: we told you previously that if this one was within one score in either direction, you shouldn’t put too much stock in the outcome. The teams at the top of Division 1 are all so close to each other that we could see quite a few of them taking home the title come November; both West Bloomfield and Clarkston certainly fit that bill.

Next week, West Bloomfield will play Rochester Adams in a game that will complete the round robin of OAA heavyweights. West Bloomfield will be favorited, but don’t be surprised if the Highlanders notch the upset…. again, the top teams of D1 are all so close together.

Finally, here’s some highlights we found from the game:

Davison vs. Saginaw Heritage

In a matchup of our model’s D1 #1 & D2 #3 teams, Davison showed why they deserve the top overall ranking in the State: they beat the Heritage Hawks by 5+ scores.

This outcome is significant for two reasons:

1. Such a large margin of victory showcases our model’s case for ranking Davison #1 overall

2. Heritage revealed that while they have improved significantly, they are still a few scores away from competing with the top teams in the State

As for what comes next, Heritage plays Lapeer in Week 5. Lapeer is undefeated, but if Heritage can beat them, they should be favored in every remaining game. An 8-1 result on the year would be the Hawks best result since 2006, quite the impressive feat.

If Lapeer beats Heritage, mark your calendars for Week 9. That date will feature a likely 8-0 Lapeer & 8-0 Davison squaring off for the SVL-Red Championship.

In between now and that game, Davison’s main opponent of note will be Walled Lake Western in Week 6. We currently have the Warriors rated as the #3 team in Division 3.

Finally, here’s some highlights we found from the game:

Tracking the Champs

Let’s check in on how our 2021 champs did last week:

Warren DLS’s loss to Brother Rice was the most notable result. Coming into the game, DLS had won 16 straight and was our #1 overall team in the State.

With DLS’s loss, there are now only three 2021 State Champs that have yet to lose this season (Belleville, GR Catholic Central, & Hudson).

Biggest Upsets

Our model correctly predicted 188 out of 233 games this past weekend (more on that below).

This means that there were 45 upsets last week. Below were the 10 largest ones, ranked by the size of their spread heading into the game:

The top upset, Melvindale ABT’s loss to Detroit Community, was a game where Melvindale ABT was favored by 31 points. Quite the turn of events!

Also, note the spread on the Warren DLS / Brother Rice game - we had DLS as an 18 point favorite!

Model Check - In

Let’s check back in on our Playoff Wizard and Goosepoop Computer Model picks - how did they do in Week 4?

Goosepoop Computer Model

• Predicted 188 out of 233 games correctly (80.6% Accuracy)

Playoff Wizard

• Predicted 89 out of 128 games correctly (69.6% Accuracy)

For the first week, the Computer Model has beaten the Playoff Wizard Users!

We’re gonna give ourselves a pat on the back here, but we also kind of expected this - this was the first week our Computer Model was using 2022 data.

Survivor Island

Let’s check-in on the State’s remaining unbeaten teams.

• Last week, we left you with 99 unbeaten teams. We said that that number would drop to 88 at a minimum, as many 3-0 teams were scheduled to play each other

• This week, we are now down to 74 unbeaten teams. This equates to roughly 9 unbeaten teams per division, or about 15% of all teams

• In Week 5, we have 7 games between unbeaten teams. This means that at most, there will be 67 unbeaten teams after Week 5. Very likely, the actual number will be less than that.

Good luck to all teams still in search of that perfect regular season!

Most Improved

With last week’s win, Birmingham Seaholm now owns outright the title of “the State’s Most Improved Team”. They are now sitting at 4-0 after winning only 1 game all of last year, an improvement of 3 wins thus far.

Behind the Maples are 10 other teams that have improved over their 2021 win totals by 2 games. Great work!

Most Underrated

In a new segment this week, we’re taking a look at the State’s top 10 teams with losing records:

With a rating of 28.7, we’ve got Cass Tech ranked as the 14th best team in Division 1, despite their 1-3 start.

Hudsonville is our highest rated winless team - we’ve got them pegged as the 28th best team in Division 1. They may be left on the outside looking in come playoff time, despite likely deserving a spot.

Superlatives

Last Week

• Most Pts Scored: (71). Belleville over Wayne, 71-0

• Most Total Points Scored: (111). Bay City Western over Midland Dow

• Least Total Points Scored: (9). Howell over Plymouth

• Safety Alert: No teams ending with 2 points scored this week!

Season to Date

• Most Points per Game: (55.0). Belleville

• Least Points Allowed per Game: (0.0). Gladwin, River Rouge

• Best Offense (per computer model): (47.1 Rating). Southfield A&T.

• Best Defense (per computer model): (19.5 Rating). Macomb Dakota

• Toughest Schedule (per computer model): Clarkston

• Longest Active Win Streak: (41). Grand Rapids Catholic Central.

We also did longer versions of our most points scored & least points allowed analyses. For those, check out our social media posts below:

Computer Rankings

Division 1

Note that defending State Champ & owner of the State’s 3rd largest win streak, Belleville, is not in the top 10 here. The model has them at #13.

Division 2

With the loss to Brother Rice, Warren DLS’s rating took a bit of a hit, but not too much - they remain the model’s favorite to win it all Thanksgiving weekend.

Division 3

River Rouge remains Division 3’s top team, but watch out for Detroit MLK - as we expected in last week’s post, they make their first appearance in the model’s top 10, post their victory over Cass Tech.

Division 4

Last year’s Champ, Chelsea, is down at #10, while semifinalists Edwardsburg & Freeland are at #8 & #5, respectively.

Division 5

The model has GRCC down at #4 here, despite the 40 game win streak. This is likely due to two factors: 1) a close win over Cedar Springs in Week 3, and 2) a weak schedule, generally (GRCC’s opponents have a combined record of 3-13).

Division 6

Here you can see one of the major issues with the model: because the Upper Peninsula teams have played no one but themselves, it’s very difficult to compare them to anyone in the LP. Thus, the model overweights them: D6’s top 10 teams has 5 teams from the UP in the rankings.

This issue will likely sort itself out with time.

Division 7

Hudson, the D8 State Champ from last year, is D7’s top team.

Division 8

Again, you see the same issue as with Division 6 - the model overweights teams from the UP (there are 4 of them here). This will sort itself out over time.

Finally, for more info on what these rankings mean, check out our previous post on the topic:

Next Week

Week 5 is shaping up to be a huge week. Here’s where all the best games will be:

Top 5 Games Overall

• Dakota (#2, D1) vs. Chippewa Valley (#4, D1)

• Caledonia (#5, D1) vs. Grandville (#7, D1)

• Rochester Adams (#10, D1) vs. West Bloomfield (#3, D1)

• DCC (#6, D1) vs. Brother Rice (#2, D3)

• East Kentwood (#12, D1) vs. Rockford (#9, D1)

Top Game in Every Division

• D1: Dakota (#2, D1) vs. Chippewa Valley (#4, D1)

• D2: Milford (#10, D2) vs. Walled Lake Western (#3, D3)

• D3: Brother Rice (#2, D3) vs. DCC (#6, D1)

• D4: Freeland (#5, D4) vs. Frankenmuth (#1, D5)

• D5: GRCC (#4, D5) vs. Forest Hills Eastern (#4, D4)

• D6: Millington (#18, D6) vs. Standish-Sterling (#11, D6)

• D7: Lawton (#3, D7) vs. Delton Kellogg (#18, D7)

• D8: Fowler (#5, D8) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (#9, D7)

Games Between Undefeated Teams

• Dakota vs. Chippewa Valley

• Caledonia vs. Grandville

• Brighton vs. Northville

• Freeland vs. Frankenmuth

• Forest Hills Eastern vs. GRCC

• Millington vs. Standish-Sterling

• Beal City vs. Evart

And that’s all for Week 4, guys! Thanks again for taking the time to read this week’s wrap-up.

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