Week 3 2022 Preview

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #37!

Today is our third of 14 weekly previews. From this week onward, we’ll be releasing this report out every Thursday morning.

For this week’s post, we’re going to have a very similar format to the last two weeks:

1. Big Games: A brief overview of 2-5 of the State’s biggest games

2. Fun Facts: A smattering of ‘fun facts’ about matchups occurring that week

3. Other Info: General football information (polls, etc.)

Lastly, if you haven’t checked out our Week 2 Wrap-Up, I highly suggest you read that before continuing (link below).

Before we jump into post, I want to take a second and thank you guys, the members of our community. The support we receive from you all is the reason we continue to post these updates, and we are proud to say that we now have over 620 subscribers! Let’s keep pushing to 1000!

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Week 3 Big Games

Ah, Week 3 - we are officially in the twilight zone of the season. At this point, most people’s 2021 notions have worn thin, but we’ve yet to establish any firm 2022 view points. Which teams are good? Which teams are merely posing? Are there any 0-2 teams that have just played tough schedules to start the season?

This all ends next week with the release of our inaugural Goosepoop Power Ratings. From that point on, we’ll have an objective method of talking about which teams are best, and, because of that, which games are best.

However, that means that this week, we are stuck with a bit of a guessing game. No matter who tells you what, we don’t truly know where the best games are. We simply have an idea. And that idea is to stick solely to undefeated teams. Sure, some of the State’s 150 2-0 teams are overrated - but, given that we only have two weeks of game results, we can’t think of another, more objective way of talking about where you should be focused. So, we kindly ask that you bear with us until next week.

Rochester Hills Stoney Creek vs. West Bloomfield

If I told you that this game featured both a team that is both top 5 in the State, talent-wise and top 5 in the State in points per game, would you guess that they were the same team?

If you answered yes, you’re wrong. While the super-talented West Bloomfield (they have at least 5 players rated in 247’s composite ratings for the classes of 2023 & 2024), is no offensive slouch (they’re averaging 40 points per game), they are still not on Stoney Creek’s level. Through 2 games, Stoney Creek is 5th in the State for total points scored, averaging 56 points per game.

Perhaps the difference is competition: after all, West Bloomfield did start the year with games against Sterling Heights Stevenson & Harper Woods, both of which were playoff teams last year. While Stoney Creek has played Bloomfield Hills, their other game (in which they scored 70 points) was against Detroit Mumford, a team that won only 3 games last year.

So, off of 2022 results alone, it’s tough to tell just how comparable these two teams are. The beauty of it is that we don’t have to wait: we’ll find out Friday night when these two teams square up.

If the matchup is anything like last year, West Bloomfield will prevail in a close, but comfortable win (the Lakers won, 24-10). But perhaps this isn’t last year - has Stoney Creek closed the gap in the OAA Red? The Playoff Wizard users seem to think so - they have this game as almost a coin flip (52% in favor of WB), despite 2021’s computer model having West Bloomfield as a two touchdown favorite.

Anchor Bay vs. Macomb Dakota

Our second game is almost the mirror image of the first, just in Macomb county instead of Oakland. We have an upstart team (Anchor Bay) that is looking to prove that they’ve closed some ground on a conference rival that has been traditionally stronger (Macomb Dakota).

Adding fuel to this fire are two threads: coaching & 2021 results. On the first, recall that Anchor Bay is now coached by Mike Giannone. Coach is in his 3rd year at Anchor Bay, but has previously spent 18 years of his career as the HC at Macomb Dakota. We’re not sure it means much to the game itself, but it’s interesting nonetheless.

Beyond that qualitative aspect are the results themselves: Anchor Bay played Dakota twice last year, and, both times, they came out on the losing end in lopsided results. In fact, Dakota was Anchor Bay’s final game of the season last year, as the Cougars beat them out of the playoffs.

Has Anchor Bay improved? If things go according to how Playoff Wizard users see it, the answer will be a resounding ‘no’: there have been no selections made in the Playoff Wizard that are forecasting a win for the Tars. 2021’s computer model agrees: Dakota is 3 touchdown favorite here.

Warren Michigan Collegiate vs. Detroit Country Day

This game flys under the radar, so I’ll start with a bit of a headline: there’s a high percentage chance that these teams are playing in the Friday & Saturday 4:30PM slots at Ford Field this Thanksgiving. 

Why do we say that? For one, just look at both teams’ 2021 results: Collegiate was already there in the D6 final, and Country Day was a touchdown away from beating the State Champs (Chelsea) and advancing out of Regionals.

If that’s not enough to get you excited, check the latest Coaches poll. The MHSFCA has these two teams both rated as rated #3 in their respective divisions (DCD is D5, Collegiate is D6). Under that lens, this game is not only one of our feature games this week - it’s likely the top game in the State.

So, who will win? This is where it gets interesting - the Goosepoop Computer Model & the Playoff Wizard Users are crosswise here, with each picking a different team. As the computer model is still based on 2021 results, you have to lean with the Playoff Wizard Users: all of the picks here were made just this last week, and more than 3/4ths of them were made in favor of Collegiate.

4 Sets of Fun Facts for Week 3

Games Between Returning Regional Finalists

This is our last week of running this segment - with the advent of the Goosepoop Computer Model next week, we’re largely tossing out 2021 results as a way of talking about where the good games are.

With that said, there’s 4 games this week between teams who are returning 2021 regional finalists or better:

• Calumet (0-2, REGIONALS) vs. Westwood (0-2, REGIONALS)

• GRCC (2-0, CHAMPS) vs. Cedar Springs (0-2, REGIONALS)

• Detroit Loyola (0-2, REGIONALS) vs. Ottawa Lake Whiteford (2-0, SEMIS)

• Detroit Country Day (2-0, REGIONALS) vs. Michigan Collegiate (2-0, FINALS)

The Best Game in Every Division

Beyond our top games, we’re also bringing you the Playoff Wizard projections for the top game in every division. For this week’s slate, we are only featuring games between undefeated teams:

• D1: Roch. Hills Stoney Creek vs. West Bloomfield

• D2: Dexter vs. Temperance Bedford

• D3: Walled Lake Western vs. White Lake Lakeland

• D4: Croswell-Lexington vs. Armada

• D5: Birch Run vs. Frankenmuth

• D6: Warren Michigan Collegiate vs. Country Day

• D7: Manchester vs. Napoleon

• D8: Marlette vs. Ubly

Other Games Between Undefeated Teams

Beyond our feature games & the best game in each division, there’s also 13 other matchups between undefeated teams this week:

• D1: Chippewa Valley vs. Utica Eisenhower

• D1: West Ottawa vs. Rockford

• D2: South Lyon East vs. Waterford Mott

• D2: Swartz Creek vs. Holly

• D3: Allen Park vs. Gibraltar Carlson

• D4: Allegan vs. Berrien Springs

• D4: Fremont vs. Ludington

• D5: Muskegon Oakridge vs. Manistee

• D5: Flint Hamady vs. Burton Bentley

• D6: Kent City vs. Watervliet

• D7: Bath vs. Fowler

• D7: Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker vs. Vassar

• D8: Frankfort vs. St Ignace

Tracking the Champs

Finally, let’s check in on where last year’s State Champs are playing:

Other Useful Information

Coaches Poll

The Week 3 Coaches Poll was just released on Tuesday. Check it out here if you’d like to see how the State’s coaches are ranking the teams in all 8 11-man divisions:

• MHSFCA Coaches Poll

That’s all for today! We hope everyone has a great Week 3.

Check back here on Monday for the debut of our inaugural Goosepoop Computer Ratings - subscribe below to make sure you don’t miss out!