Week 3 2022: Computer Model Rankings Debut

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #38!

Today is our third of fourteen weekly wrap-ups, where we digest all of the week’s high school football action & put a bow on what we’ve learned and where we’re headed.

In today’s note, we’re debuting the first version of our computer model rankings. Additionally, we’ve got our standard wrap-up sections:

• Big Game Review - a brief review of our 3 feature games from last week

• Tracking the Champs - game results for each of the State’s 2021 Champions

• Biggest Upsets - the 10 largest upsets from around the State

• Model Check-In - how each of our models fared in picking the results of Week 3 games

• Survivor Island - a count of unbeaten teams by division

• On the Turnaround - a look at which teams have improved the most this year

• Superlatives - a smattering of other Week 3 fun facts

• Computer Ratings - our inaugural 2022 computer ratings for every division

• Next Week - we take a look at next week’s biggest games

Scroll on to check them out!

Before we jump into post, I want to take a second and thank you guys, the members of our community. The support we receive from you all is the reason we continue to post these updates, and we are proud to say that we now have over 650 subscribers! Let’s keep pushing to 1000!

On that note, if you like what you’re reading, please take a second to subscribe & share. You guys reading each week and sharing with your family & friends really is the best way for us to grow, so we appreciate any support we can get on that front.

Big Game Review

We’re going to be a bit briefer here than normal, as we’ve got a lot of information to digest this week:

Rochester Hills Stoney Creek vs. West Bloomfield

West Bloomfield stopped what was at that point a top 5 offense in the State, allowing only 23 points. The Lakers scored 42 points themselves, bringing home the victory, 42-23.

With this result, Stoney Creek showed that they are still a few scores behind the cream of the OAA. That said, they’ll get another opportunity to avenge a 2021 loss when they meet Oxford next week.

As for West Bloomfield, they move on to play Clarkston, in what is our game of the week next week. The Lakers and Wolves are ranked #4 and #6 in our Division 1 Computer model ratings.

Anchor Bay vs. Macomb Dakota

Similar to our first game, the Tars showed that they are still a few scores behind the top of the MAC, losing 7-31.

Of note is that this score is slightly better than last year’s - Anchor Bay lost 7-39 in Week 2 and 0-35 in Week 11. They’ll get to continue to show progress when they play Chippewa Valley next week.

As for Dakota, they play a 1-2 Stevenson team next week. Dakota will absolutely be favored, but Stevenson appears to be trending upward - they just posted a close loss to undefeated Romeo (24-30).

If things go as planned in the MAC, watch out for Week 5 - undefeated rivals Dakota and Chippewa Valley will meet in what will almost certainly be our game of the week.

Warren Michigan Collegiate vs. Detroit Country Day

We told you that this would be a game to watch, and that was certainly the case - Country Day edged out Collegiate, 28-20.

Country Day will move on to face 2021 semifinalist, South Lyon. As for Collegiate, they play undefeated Romulus Summit in what may be 2022’s premier charter school matchup.

Here’s some highlights from the game:

Tracking the Champs

Let’s check in on how our 2021 champs did last week:

You will note that Lansing Catholic was the lone loser, dropping a 3 point loss to Charlotte. They have now started the year 0-3.

Another result to note was the GRCC / Cedar Springs game, which was once again decided by a failed 2 point conversion in the game’s final seconds. With the win, GRCC continues to harbor the State’s longest win streak (40 straight wins).

Finally, Belleville avenged their lone 2021 loss with a 59-8 drubbing of Churchill.

Biggest Upsets

Once again, Week 3 had no shortage of upsets. Here’s our model’s top 10 upsets:

Three returning State Finalists lost their first game of the year last week, with Adams, DeWitt, and Lawton all dropping their first game of the season.

Clarkston’s win over Adams is particularly important, as the win vaults them up our computer rankings to #4 in Division 1. They will test this ranking next week when they face West Bloomfield in our game of the week.

Please note that the predicted point spreads were still based on 2021’s computer model. Going forward, all upsets & point spreads will be calculated using our 2022 computer model.

Model Check-In

Let’s check back in on our Playoff Wizard and Goosepoop Computer Model picks - how did they do in Week 3?

Goosepoop Computer Model

• Predicted 188 out of 247 games correctly (76.1% Accuracy)

Playoff Wizard

• Predicted 164 out of 183 games correctly (89.6% Accuracy)

Once again, the Playoff Wizard users defeated the Goosepoop Computer Model. Nice Work!

Please remember that at this point in the season, the Goosepoop Computer Model predictions are based off of last year results. Next week, we will use this year’s results to predict outcomes - that should bump the accuracy of our predictions up by a few percentage points.

Survivor Island

Let’s check-in on the State’s remaining unbeaten teams.

• Last week, we left you with 150 unbeaten teams. We said that that number would drop to 128 at a minimum, as many 2-0 teams were scheduled to play each other

• This week, we are now down to 99 unbeaten teams. This equates to roughly 12 unbeaten teams per division, or about 20% of all teams

• In Week 3, we have 11 games between unbeaten teams. This means that at most, there will be 88 unbeaten teams after Week 4. Very likely, the actual number will be less than that.

Good luck to all teams still in search of that perfect regular season!

On the Turnaround

We’ve now got a 5-way tie for the title of the State’s most improved team. New this week to the top spot are Birmingham Seaholm, Calvin Christian, & Warren Cousino. Each of these 5 teams have already improved upon their 2021 win total by 2 games.

Nice work!

Superlatives

Last Week

• Most Pts Scored: (77). East Lansing over Okemos.

• Best Defense: (58). There were 58 shutouts in Week 3.

• Most Total Points Scored: (92). Seaholm over Avondale, 63-29. Heritage over Grand Blanc, 52-40. Gross Ile over Milan, 50-42.

• Least Total Points Scored: (6). Union City over Jonesville.

• Safety Alert: No teams ending with 2 points scored this week!

Season to Date

• Most Points per Game: (58.0). Saginaw Heritage.

• Least Points Allowed per Game: (0.0). Gladwin, River Rouge, Detroit Northwestern, & Chandler Park.

• Best Offense (per computer model): (60.4 rating) Southfield A&T.

• Best Defense (per computer model): (20.3 rating). Hudson.

• Toughest Schedule (per computer model): (43.6 rating). DCC.

• Longest Active Win Streak: (40). Grand Rapids Catholic Central.

We also did longer versions of our most points scored & least points allowed analyses. For those, check out our social media posts below:

Week 3 Computer Model Rankings

At long last, here our Week 3 computer model rankings for every division:

Division 1

Our model has returning State Champ, Belleville, all the way down at #13!

Division 2

Warren De La Salle is the top team in D2 & across all divisions.

Division 3

Returning State Champ, Detroit King, is absent from these rankings (our model has them at #16). This is likely driven by the lack of data we have on them - they’ve only played 2 games, one of which is out of State.

Division 4

A wide-open division. None of last year’s semi-finalists are in our model’s top 5.

Division 5

Returning State Champ & owner of the State’s longest win streak, GRCC, is down at #3. This is likely driven by the closer than expected win over Cedar Springs last week.

Division 6

Another wide-open division. Neither of last year’s State Finalists make an appearance here.

Division 7

Last year’s Division 8 State Champ, Hudson, sits atop our D7 rankings. They are followed by last year’s D7 runner-up, Lawton.

The reigning Division 7 State Champ, Pewamo-Westphalia, did not make the top 15 cut.

Division 8

Finally, for more info on what these rankings mean, check out our previous post on the topic:

Next Week

Top 5 Games Overall

• Clarkston (#4, D1) vs. West Bloomfield (#6, D1)

• Davison (#2, D1) vs. Saginaw Heritage (#3, D2)

• Warren DLS (#1, D2) vs. Brother Rice (#5, D3)

• DeWitt (#4, D3) vs. East Lansing (#4, D2)

• Lowell (#3, D3) vs. Byron Center (#5, D2)

Top Game in Every Division

• D1: Clarkston (#4, D1) vs. West Bloomfield (#6, D1)

• D2: Saginaw Heritage (#3, D2) vs. Davison (#2, D1)

• D3: Brother Rice (#5, D3) vs. Warren DLS (#1, D2)

• D4: St Mary’s (#11, D4) vs. River Rouge (#2, D3)

• D5: Williamston (#8, D5) vs. Mason (#6, D3)

• D6: Constantine (#1, D6) vs. Schoolcraft (#5, D7)

• D7: Hudson (#1, D7) vs. Ida (#12, D6)

• D8: Iron Mountain (#1, D8) vs. L’Anse (#20, D7)

Games Between Undefeated Teams

• Williamston vs. Mason

• Carlson vs. Trenton

• South Lyon East vs. Walled Lake Western

• Ludington vs. Oakridge

• Sault Ste Marie vs. St Ignace

• Carleton Airport vs. Grosse Ile

• North Branch vs. Almont

• Detroit Voyageur vs. Detroit Leadership

• Ubly vs. Harbor Beach

• Belding vs. Grandville Calvin Christian

• Elk Rapids vs. Charlevoix

And that’s all for Week 3, guys! Thanks again for taking the time to read this week’s wrap-up.

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