Week 2 2023 MHSAA Football Preview

Check this out:

Like what you see?

Live State Title projections like these are part of our new, paid site, which we will be releasing next weekend.

Still not convinced?

How about this screen? At our new, paid site, you’ll be able to see our computer model’s forecast for EVERY game in Michigan

If you want to be notified of when this is all released, drop me your email here

I’ll make sure you get notified the second it goes live!

Alright - apologies for that cold open. I gotta get people’s attention somehow!

Let’s jump into the real business at hand:

• Today is Goosepoop #70

• It’s also the start of Week 2 of the Michigan HS Football Season

Just like last week, you’ll find below our projections for the ~20 HUGE matchups that are happening in Week 2

One note: WE STILL DO NOT HAVE FRESH COMPUTER RATINGS FOR 2023

That won’t happen until post-Week 3 (next Sunday)

Until then, you’ll have to settle for our *other* projections, which we gave an overview of in our last note:

Also:

Make sure you subscribe if you haven’t already. I write this note every week during football season - you can have it hit your inbox promptly on Thursday mornings by submitting your email below:

PSA:

Our other company, Teamfi, just crossed a quarter-million dollars fundraised for teams around the State

MORE IMPORTANTLY:

Because Teamfi is (almost) free, we've saved those same teams $30 - 50K in fees, too

That’s like 8 rounds of helmet reconditioning,

….. 4 new wrestling mats,

….. or 2 sets of game uniforms

Learn more (and see who’s all getting new wrestling mats) at our website

….. just kidding on the wrestling mats :)

Thursday’s Best Games

Davison vs. Grandville

Davison is coming off perhaps the most impressive win in the State, as they beat returning D2 State Champion (and 2022’s highest rated team) Warren DLS, 31-26. That’s a 13 point swing from where the computer projected the Cards coming out in that game last year. Grandville is also coming off an impressive performance: they recently beat Grand Blanc by 28, which is 8 points higher than where the computer projected in 2022.

• Who you guys think will win: 50% Davison (36 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Davison -7

Roseville vs. Romeo

Fifteen schools put up performances in Week 1 that were 40+ point swings from where they were projected in 2022. Only four of those 15 were in Divisions 4 or higher, and Roseville was one of them. The Panthers defeated Brother Rice 41-0, a result that represents a 46 point improvement over last year. But will the momentum continue? They’ll have their hands full when they take on Romeo, a team that submitted a impressive performance last week as well: despite losing to returning D1 State Finalist Caledonia, the Bulldogs kept it close (35-28), a result that represents a 12 point improvement over last year.

• Who you guys think will win: 59% Roseville (17 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Romeo -4

Tecumseh vs. Whitehall

Two of D4’s hottest teams from 2022 collide in what has to be one of the longest Lower Peninsula travel times of the weekend (Google Maps says 3 hours and 20 minutes….. but that’s by car, not bus). Last week, Whitehall underperformed their 2022 rating by narrowly defeating Unity, 34-28 (that’s a 12 point underperformance, but it could be that Unity is much better, rather than Whitehall is worse). Tecumseh is in a similar boat: they defeated Jackson NW 40-21 last week, which is a 15 point underperformance from prior year (again, at this point, it’s just as likely that Jackson NW got better, rather than Tecumseh is worse).

• Who you guys think will win: 54% Whitehall (28 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Whitehall -19

Groves vs. West Bloomfield

It’s an Oakland County showdown! West Bloomfield is coming in HOT off a thrilling, 1 point victory over Chippewa Valley, a result which is almost *on the money* from last year’s projection (2022 had WB as a 4 point favorite). Groves is also hot: their week 1 victory over North Farmington (36-3) represents a 14 point improvement over last year.

• Who you guys think will win: 71% West Bloomfield (17 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): West Bloomfield -25

DeWitt vs. Mason

I had someone on Twitter suggest this is the D3 State Championship, played in Week 2. They might be right: DeWitt’s 27-17 victory over Haslett last week represents a 2 point improvement from 2022, and Mason’s 52-14 victory over Holt represents a 30 point improvement. That’s not bad, for two teams who were already returning State Semifinalists.

• Who you guys think will win: 60% Mason (30 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): PICK ‘EM

East Kentwood vs. Byron Center

This is a fun, backyard-brawl, type matchup: not only do EK and BC share a school district border (ever been to M6 & 131? That’s basically it), but both teams are coming off impressive results: EK defeated Hartland 35-10 (11 point improvement), while BC defeated Battle Creek Central 55-14 (30 point improvement).

• Who you guys think will win: 72% East Kentwood (18 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): East Kentwood -7

East Lansing vs. Hudsonville

Hudsonville was left out of the playoffs last year, despite being rated by our computer as the 17th best team in D1. I don’t think that will happen again: their 28-2 defeat of Howell represents a 4 point improvement over 2022, and, more importantly, gives the Eagles critical D1 points in the playoff point formula. East Lansing is in a bit of a different boat: their 17-7 loss to Portage Central represents a 28 point swing from 2022, when they were favored by 19.

• Who you guys think will win: 92% Hudsonville (12 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Hudsonville -5

Friday’s Best Games

Carmel (IN) vs. Detroit MLK

While I don’t have a computer trend for Carmel, I do have two fun facts: the Greyhounds are 1-1…. and they are also Indiana’s largest school, with enrollment 5400 (translation: two Macomb Dakotas). As for Detroit MLK, they are 0-1, having just lost to Cincinatti St Xavier, 44-8, a result which indicates a 36 point decline from 2022’s projection.

• Who you guys think will win: 100% Carmel (10 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Carmel -22

Detroit Cass Tech vs. St Joe’s Regional (NJ) —NOTE, this is actually on SATURDAY

I believe this matchup is only possible due to recent MHSAA rule changes which permit teams to play non-bordering State teams, as long as the games themselves are played in a bordering State (please correct me if I’m wrong). As for the teams, here’s what I have on them: SJR is 1-0, having defeated Christ School from NC last week. Cass is 0-1, having lost to Southfield 29-27, a result which is a 10 point swing from last year (Cass was an 8 point favorite over Southfield in ‘22)

• Who you guys think will win: 100% SJR (1 submission)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): N/A

Muskegon vs. Warren DLS

It’s a matchup of the returning D2 State Champ (DLS) and the returning D3 Runner Up (Muskegon). Both teams are coming off results which indicate a *possible* decline from last year: DLS’s 5 point loss to Davison is a 13 point swing from 2022, where they were favorited by 8. Muskegon’s 20 point loss to Rockford is a 4 point swing from ‘22, when they were only a 16 point underdog.

• Who you guys think will win: 58% DLS (33 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Warren DLS -17

Mona Shores vs. Rockford

This matchup is the inverse of the one above it: both teams are riding highs. Mona Shores just completed leg 2 of their cross-lake series with Manitowac Lincoln, a game which they won 58-7 (21 point improvement over 2022), and Rockford just defeated Muskegon 27-7 (4 point improvement over 2022).

• Who you guys think will win: 92% Rockford (36 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Rockford -17

Southfield A&T vs. Clarkston

Southfield’s 2 point victory over Cass represents a 10 point swing from where the computer had A&T rated last year. They’ll take on Clarkston, who is coming off a 24-10 loss to Northville. Fun fact on that: Clarkston vs Northville was the 2nd largest D1 point swing last week (in 2022, Clarkston would have been favorited by 24 points).

• Who you guys think will win: 68% Southfield A&T (25 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Clarkston -3

Toledo CC (OH) vs. Detroit CC

The CHSL’s Toledo era begins as Toledo CC takes on DCC in a *LEAGUE* matchup (yes, you are reading that right). Last week, DCC defeated Dearborn 28-7, a result which indicates a 5 point improvement over last year. Toledo CC was also improved: they defeated Toledo Whitmer 35-8, a 3 point improvement over 2022.

• Who you guys think will win: 76% Toledo CC (17 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Toledo CC -6

Grand Rapids CC vs. River Rouge

Our final matchup may feature two 0-1 teams, but please look past their records: both teams are coming off losses to two of the better teams in the Midwest (RR lost to Belleville, last year’s #2 team in Michigan, and CC lost to Loyola, last year’s #2 team in Illinois). I don’t have a trend analysis for GRCC, but I do for River Rouge: their 35-28 loss to Belleville was an 8 point improvement over 2022, where they were 15 point underdogs.

• Who you guys think will win: 52% GRCC (23 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): River Rouge -3

Other Games to Watch Out For

Gladstone vs. Negaunee

• The best game in Division 6

• Last year, these two teams were the best in the UP

• Who you guys think will win: 100% Gladstone (2 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Negaunee -3

TC St Francis vs. Lawton

• The best game in Division 7

• Who you guys think will win: 67% Lawton (30 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): TCSF -21

Whiteford vs. Ida

• The best game in Division 8

• Who you guys think will win: 81% Whiteford (21 submissions)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Whiteford -16

Indian River vs. Lake Linden

• The best game in 8-Man, Division 1

• Who you guys think will win: N/A (no Playoff Wizard for 8Man)

• Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Lake Linden -16

Morrice vs. Merrill

• This WAS the best game in 8-Man, Division 2, but it already happened last night

• Final Score: Merrill 28, Morrice 20

That’s all for this week, guys. Thanks for reading once again!

Remember, if you haven’t subscribed yet, make sure you do so below: