Week 2 2022: Pseudo-Rankings & More

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #36!

Today is our second of fourteen weekly wrap-ups, where we digest all of the week’s high school football action & put a bow on what we’ve learned and where we’re headed.

In today’s note, we’ve got the following sections:

• Big Game Review - a brief review of our 3 feature games from last week 

• Tracking the Champs - game results for each of the State’s 2021 Champions

• Biggest Upsets - the 20 largest upsets from around the State

• Model Check-In - how each of our models fared in picking the results of Week 2 games

• Pseudo-Polls - the highest rated unbeaten teams in each division

• Survivor Island - a count of unbeaten teams by division

• On the Turnaround - a look at which teams have improved the most this year

• Superlatives - a smattering of other Week 2 fun facts

• Next Week - we take a look at next week’s biggest games

Scroll on to check them out!

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Big Game Review

Warren De La Salle vs. Muskegon

Unlike our other featured games, this one was only close for around the first quarter. Warren DLS ended the first half with a 28-10 lead, pulling away further in the 2nd half to finish with a 49-16 victory.

If you remember our preview, we were thinking this game could show us two things:

1. How good is Warren DLS this year? This was their first real test.

2. Is Muskegon ‘back’? They had a down year by their standards in 2021.

Coming out of this game, the answer to #1 is a resoundingly loud: ‘Very Good’. To beat a team as tradition-rich as Muskegon by 4+ scores is impressive, and it’s clear that they will once again be the team to beat in Division 2 this year.

As for question #2, the jury is still out. Muskegon clearly isn’t on DLS’s level, but they don’t need to be: remember, Muskegon is D3, while DLS is D2. As such, this matchup doesn’t mean much as far as playoffs, and for the Big Reds to be ‘back’, they only need to compete with the likes of DeWitt, Detroit MLK, and others. It may be the case that DLS is simply on another level than any of those teams.

As for when we’ll find this out, we’ll have to wait until Week 5 when the Big Reds take on Zeeland West. The Dux are currently undefeated, and, for the Big Reds to achieve their playoff goals, they will likely have to go through a district that includes Zeeland.

For DLS, they have UD Jesuit this week, and then proceed into their CHSL Central schedule the following 3 weeks. At this point, you have to speculate that DCC will be their toughest test there. DLS’s Week 8 matchup with River Rouge will also be a good one.

Finally, here’s some highlights from the game (per Fox 17):

Rockford vs. Muskegon Mona Shores

Wow. What a game. Mona Shores absolutely controlled all variables of this one for nearly three quarters, striking up what was at one point a 27-7 score with only minutes remaining in the third quarter. Then, disaster struck, with Mona snapping the ball out the back of the end zone as they lined up to punt.

From this point forward, it was all Rockford - they scored three touchdowns in a matter of minutes, swinging the entire momentum of the game and flipping the score to lead 31-27.

Mona had one last chance to respond, but they failed to do so - this one ended at 31-27 in favor of Rockford.

As for what this tells us, my main takeaway is just how close these two teams are: home field advantage may have been the difference here, and, if this is played at Mona, does the opposite outcome occur?

There’s no clear answer to that question, and you have to respect an outcome as played on the field. And this outcome tells us that last year’s hierarchy in West Michigan remains intact: Rockford is still the top dog, and Mona is somewhere beneath them. However, we should note that Mona has gained substantial ground between last year and this year: the Goosepoop Computer Model had this game as a 10 point spread; Mona cleared that hurdle by 6 points.

Next week, Rockford will face upstart West Ottawa in a battle of unbeatens. If they win there, they likely won’t be tested until they face fellow OK Red 2-0 Grandville in Week 6.

As for Mona, next week they face Holland in a game where they’ll likely cruise to victory. Their next test will come either Week 5 against Union or Week 6 against Zeeland West.

Here’s the game highlights from Fox 17:

DeWitt vs. Portland

For all the theatrics in the Rockford / Mona game, this one may have been better. Tied at half (27-27), DeWitt scored with just 14 seconds left to go up 39-34 and outlast the Red Raiders. 

With the win, DeWitt avenges what was probably the State’s top upset last year. To Portland’s credit, they showed that they are very competitive and are once again a top team in Division 5 (and the State) this year.

Next week, DeWitt will face Detroit Catholic Central in a game that would be our featured game had DCC not lost to Chippewa Valley in Week 1. The Panthers will then continue on through the meat of their conference schedule, with tests against East Lansing, Holt, & Grand Ledge.

Portland has a much different outlook going forward - they should cruise until week 6, when they matchup with a currently winless Lansing Catholic Central. After that, they have dates with solid Cadillac & Berrien Springs in Weeks 8 and 9.

Here’s the game highlights from WILXTV:

The Biggest Game in Every Division

In our Week 2 Preview, we gave you the predictions for the biggest game in every division. Click the link below to see how each of them ended up:

Tracking the Champs

Here’s the results from each of our 2021 State Champs in Week 2.

In high contrast to Week 1, only one of the State’s sitting Champions went down, Lansing Catholic (they are now 0-2).

Here’s each team’s schedule for next week.

Keep an eye on the Grand Rapids Catholic Central / Cedar Springs matchup. Last year, that game was decided on a 2 point conversion, and it was GRCC’s toughest test all season.

Biggest Upsets

Here’s what the Goosepoop Computer Model has for the 20 largest upsets in the State this week. We are using only teams that had yet to lose as of Week 2 as we aren’t sure that we can trust a team’s 2021 rating anymore if they lost Week 1.

Congrats to Gaylord, who makes their second appearance on this list. In back to back weeks, they have defeated two 8 win regular-season teams from a year ago (Lake Fenton & Kingsley). That’s an impressive start!

Again, remember to take these outcomes with a grain of salt - they are deemed upsets purely because of each team’s 2021 rating, NOT because of how good either team is this year.

Model Check-In

Let’s check back in on our Playoff Wizard and Goosepoop Computer Model picks - how did they do in Week 2?

Goosepoop Computer Model

• Predicted 173 out of 247 games correctly (70.0% Accuracy)

Playoff Wizard

• Predicted 159 out of 224 games correctly (70.9% Accuracy)

Once again, the Playoff Wizard users defeated the Goosepoop Computer Model. Nice Work!

However, please remember that at this point in the season, the Goosepoop Computer Model predictions are based off of last year results. Post Week 3, we will use this year’s results to predict outcomes - that should bump the accuracy of our predictions up by 7 - 10 percentage points.

Pseudo-Rankings

As we’ve discussed previously, one of the frustrating parts of the early season is that we lack the full set of information required to properly assess teams. Said another way: not every 2-0 team is created equal. 

This all changes next week, when our inaugural Goosepoop Power Ratings will drop. Until then, we have to resort to other methods of ranking teams.

As for what that method is, we’ve resorted to an approach that we’re calling ‘pseudo-rankings’. This method of ranking incorporates two different pieces of information:

• Each Team’s 2021 Goosepoop Power Rating

• Each Team’s 2022 Record, as of Week 2

We apply these pieces of information in the following manner: rank each team by their 2021 Goosepoop Power Rating, and remove those teams that have lost in either Week 1 or Week 2.

The remaining teams are ‘kind of’ the best teams in their respective division, although it’s still highly suspect - this type of approach neglects to factor in strength of schedule or margin of victory, important variables that our Goosepoop Power Ratings 100% incorporate.

Below, please find our Week 2 Pseudo-Rankings for the Top 5 teams in each division. Again, please take these with a grain of salt.

Division 1

1. Rockford

2. Grandville

3. Romeo

4. Rochester Adams

5. Caledonia

Once again, Belleville, the returning State Champs, are nowhere to be found on this list. This is because the Goosepoop Computer Model is really penalizing them for their loss to Churchill last year.

Another notable is the presence of OK Red teams here - of our Top 5, THREE belong to this conference (Rockford, Grandville, & Caledonia). These teams will play a round robin in Weeks 5, 6, and 9.

Division 2

1. Warren DLS

2. Forest Hills Central

3. East Lansing

4. Battle Creek Lakeview

5. Dexter

Division 3

1. DeWitt

2. River Rouge

3. Zeeland West

4. Mount Pleasant

5. Mason

The defending State Champ, Detroit MLK, is left off of this list as they lost in Week 1 to Warren Central (IN). They will return to the top spot in all likelihood next week with the release of our Goosepoop Power Ratings.

Division 4

1. South Christian

2. Freeland

3. Whitehall

4. Croswell-Lexington

5. Riverview

Perhaps the most wide-open division: each of last year’s top 3 teams have already lost (Unity, Edwardsburg, & Chelsea), so they are left out of this ranking.

Division 5

1. Grand Rapids Catholic Central

2. Frankenmuth

3. Detroit Country Day

4. Williamston

5. Gladwin

Note that Grand Rapids Catholic Central goes for their 40th straight victory this week in their matchup with Cedar Springs

Division 6

1. West Catholic

2. Millington

3. Clinton

4. Warren Michigan Collegiate

5. Standish-Sterling

Lansing Catholic, the defending State Champion, has started the year 0-2. This leaves the door wide open for several other strong teams from last year, including division newcomer, West Catholic.

Division 7

1. Traverse City St Francis

2. Lawton

3. Hudson

4. New Lothrop

5. Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker

Pewamo-Westphalia, the defending State Champion, is left off this list, given their Week 1 loss to Redford Union.

Division 8

1. Ubly

2. Ottawa Lake Whiteford

3. Beal City

4. Harbor Beach

5. Marlette

Ubly & Marlette play each other this week. Should be a fun one in the thumb!

Survivor Island

Let’s check-in on the State’s remaining unbeaten teams.

• Last week, we left you with 251 unbeaten teams. We said that that number would drop to 186 at a minimum, as many 1-0 teams were scheduled to play each other

• This week, we are now down to 150 unbeaten teams. This equates to roughly 18-19 unbeaten teams per division, or about 30% of all teams

• In Week 3, we have 22 games between unbeaten teams. This means that at most, there will be 128 unbeaten teams after Week 3. Very likely, the actual number will be less than that.

Good luck to all teams still in search of that perfect regular season!

On the Turnaround

Through Week 2, there are nineteen teams that have already exceeded their 2021 win totals.

Let’s check in on who these teams are:

Congrats to Holland West Ottawa & Wayland, who are tied for the title of this year’s most improved!

Holland West Ottawa looks to continue their trend in Week 3, where they matchup against perhaps the toughest team in their division, Rockford.

Wayland should continue to improve - they face 0-2 Middleville next week, a game in which they should be favored.

Superlatives

• Most Pts Scored: (76). Clare over Pinconning, 76-6

• Best Defense: (47). 47 total shutouts in Week 2.

• Most Points Scored: (118). Clarkston over Southfield A&T, 62-56.

• Least Points Scored: (6). Goodrich over Linden, 6-0.

• Overtime Games: (2). Grand Ledge over Jackson, 29-28, and Bath over Potterville, 22-20.

• Safety Alert: (1). Schoolcraft over Centreville, 22-2.

• Longest Active Win Streak: (39). Grand Rapids Catholic Central

Week 3 Big Games

Below are Week 3’s biggest games. To qualify for consideration here, we are only considering matchups where both teams have yet to lose a game. Next week, with the release of our Week 1 computer ratings, we will drop the undefeated requirement.

Feature Games

• Rochester Hills Stoney Creek vs. West Bloomfield

• Anchor Bay vs. Macomb Dakota

• Warren Michigan Collegiate vs. Detroit Country Day

The Biggest Games in Every Division

• D1: Roch. Hills Stoney Creek vs. West Bloomfield

• D2: Dexter vs. Temperance Bedford

• D3: Walled Lake Western vs. White Lake Lakeland

• D4: Croswell-Lexington vs. Armada

• D5: Birch Run vs. Frankenmuth

• D6: Warren Michigan Collegiate vs. Country Day

• D7: Manchester vs. Napoleon

• D8: Marlette vs. Ubly

Other Games between Undefeated Teams

• D1: Chippewa Valley vs. Utica Eisenhower

• D1: West Ottawa vs. Rockford

• D2: South Lyon East vs. Waterford Mott

• D2: Swartz Creek vs. Holly

• D3: Allen Park vs. Gibraltar Carlson

• D4: Allegan vs. Berrien Springs

• D4: Fremont vs. Ludington

• D5: Muskegon Oakridge vs. Manistee

• D5: Flint Hamady vs. Burton Bentley

• D6: Kent City vs. Watervliet

• D7: Bath vs. Fowler

• D7: Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker vs. Vassar

• D8: Frankfort vs. St Ignace

And that’s all for Week 2, guys! Thanks again for taking the time to read this week’s wrap-up.

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