Week 2 2022 Preview

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #35!

Today is our second of 14 weekly previews. Like last week, we are delivering this guide a day earlier than normal, given the preponderance of games scheduled for Thursday this week. Next week, look out for this preview on Thursday morning. 

For this week’s post, we’re going to have a very similar format to last week:

1. Big Games: A brief overview of 2-5 of the State’s biggest games

2. Fun Facts: A smattering of ‘fun facts’ about matchups occurring that week

3. Other Info: General football information (polls, etc.)

Lastly, if you haven’t checked out our Week 1 Wrap-Up, I highly suggest you read that before continuing (link below).

Before we jump into post, I want to take a second and thank you guys, the members of our community. The support we receive from you all is the reason we continue to post these updates, and we are proud to say that we now have over 571 subscribers! Let’s keep pushing to 1000!

On that note, if you like what you’re reading, please take a second to subscribe & share. You guys reading each week and sharing with your family & friends really is the best way for us to grow, so we appreciate any support we can get on that front.

Week 2 Big Games

Warren De La Salle vs. Muskegon

Warren DLS, the returning D2 champ, is taking on Muskegon, perhaps the most tradition-rich program in the State. It’s an interesting matchup to be sure, as it can help us answer two questions:

• Many would tell you that Warren DLS was the best pound-for-pound program in the State last year. They weren’t tested in Week 1 (Detroit Renaissance), so this is the week where we get to begin to answer: will DLS’s 2021 dominance continue into 2022?

• Muskegon had sort of a down year last year (by their standards). They were ousted in the District Finals by Cedar Springs, and had a tough loss to Cass Tech earlier in the year. This is the week where we get to begin to answer: are the Big Reds back in their championship form?

As for the answers to these questions, all eyes will be on Lawrence Tech Stadium Friday night, when the Pilots play host. Our model is predicting DLS by 9. However, the Playoff Wizard users sort of disagree. With 34% pulling in favor of Muskegon, they seem to think this one will be a little closer (perhaps a spread of 5 or 6 in favor of DLS).

Rockford vs. Muskegon Mona Shores

Let’s hop over to the west side of the State, where the Rams of Rockford will play host to Mona Shores. This matchup has very similar themes to the ones above:

• Rockford was Division 1’s darling all year last year, until they suffered a 1-point upset at the hands of Grand Blanc in the regional finals. Are they ready to resume the throne? Their Week 1 matchup told us a bit about that, but a matchup with a program as successful as Mona Shores certainly will tell us even more.

• Mona Shores, similar to Muskegon, had sort of a down year last year (again, by their standards). They lost 3 games, which is not something they’d done since 2016. Are they back in championship form? If they win this Thursday night, you can bet the answer is trending yes.

As for where our projections are putting it, we see the Rams by 10 in a fairly high-scoring affair. The Playoff Wizard users sort of agree - only one in five have this game going in favor of Shores.

DeWitt vs. Portland

Our final game of the week is a fun one - a top D3 program taking on a top D5 program in a game that’s been played almost yearly for the last decade. Last year’s outing was quite the shocker - Portland upset DeWitt in a 3 point game; many referred to this as the top upset of the year.

We’ll get to see if the Red Raiders are game once again this Thursday night - however, if things go as modeled, you can expect the answer is no. We’ve got DeWitt by almost 3 scores, and the Playoff Wizard users agree. 

4 Sets of Fun Facts for Week 2

The Highest Rated Remaining 1-0 Teams in Each Division 

In a new section this week, we’re going to be looking at what we call ‘pseudo-rankings’. This analysis looks at the highest rated teams that are still undefeated, where the ‘rating’ is exclusively based on each team’s 2021 rating. 

We’ll use these as our ‘pseudo-rankings’ this week & next as we await the debut of our inaugural 2022 computer model rankings:

Division 1:

• Rockford

• Grandville

• Rochester Adams

• Romeo

• Caledonia

The returning champ, Belleville, is not in the Top 5 - surprising!

Division 2:

• Warren DLS

• Traverse City Central

• Muskegon Mona Shores

• Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central

• East Lansing

Division 3:

• DeWitt

• Muskegon

• River Rouge

• Zeeland West

• Mount Pleasant

Returning champ, Detroit MLK, lost last week & is thus excluded from this analysis.

Division 4:

• Grand Rapids South Christian

• Freeland

• Hastings

• Whitehall

• Croswell-Lexington

D4 had some major chaos last week, as the top 3 teams from last year all lost in Week 1 (Unity Christian, Edwardsburg, & Chelsea). Welcome to the top, South Christian!

Division 5:

• Grand Rapids Catholic Central

• Portland

• Frankenmuth

• Detroit Country Day

• Williamston

Division 6:

• Grand Rapids West Catholic

• Muskegon Catholic Central

• Millington

• Clinton

• Montague

With Lansing Catholic’s loss last week, West Catholic moves into the top spot.

Division 7:

• Traverse City St Francis

• Lawton

• Hudson

• New Lothrop

• Ithaca

Last year’s champ is not in D7’s rankings either - Pewamo-Westphalia lost to Redford Union last week.

Division 8:

• Ubly

• Ottawa Lake Whiteford

• Beal City

• Sand Creek

• Harbor Beach

Note that last year’s champ, Hudson, has moved up into D7.

Games Between Returning Regional Finalists or Better

Similar to the above segment, we’re going to keep this one running until the release of our inaugural computer model ratings (post Week 3).

• DeWitt (1-0, FINALS) vs. Portland (1-0, SEMIS)

• Unity Christian (0-1, FINALS) vs. St. Joseph (0-1, SEMIS)

• Grand Rapids CC (1-0, CHAMPS) vs. Detroit Loyola (0-1, REGIONALS)

• Traverse City St Francis (1-0, SEMIS) vs. Jackson Lumen Christi (0-1, SEMIS)

• Muskegon Catholic Central (1-0, REGIONALS) vs. Muskegon Oakridge (1-0, REGIONALS)

• Detroit Country Day (1-0, REGIONALS) vs. Parma Western (1-0, REGIONALS)

You will note that there were several games here that fell out contention for our ‘big games’ section, simply because one (or both) teams lost in Week 1.

Here’s how the Playoff Wizard Users are picking them:

The Highest Rated Game in Every Division

Similar to our approach in the big games section, this week we’re looking at the highest rated game between 1-0 teams in each division.

There’s a few repeats here with other sections, but enjoy nonetheless:

• Division 1: Rockford vs. Mona Shores

• Division 2: Warren DLS vs. Muskegon

• Division 3: DeWitt vs. Portland

• Division 4: Whitehall vs. Hastings

• Division 5: Muskegon Oakridge vs. Muskegon CC

• Division 6: Constantine vs. Hudson

• Division 7: Ithaca vs. Standish-Sterling

• Division 8: Decatur vs. Lawton

And here’s how the Playoff Wizard Users are picking them:

Tracking the Champs

Finally, let’s check in on last year’s champs. As we noted in our Week 1 Wrap-Up, last week was particularly tumultuous for this set of teams: 50% of the returning champs lost in Week 1 (Detroit MLK, Chelsea, Lansing CC, and Pewamo-Westphalia).

Surprisingly, every singly Champ is still favored in their Week 2 matchup - however, users are telling Warren DLS & Lansing Catholic to be on upset alert.

Other Useful Information

Coaches Poll

The Week 2 Coaches Poll was just released yesterday. Check it out here if you’d like to see how the State’s coaches are ranking the teams in all 8 11-man divisions:

• MHSFCA Coaches Poll

That’s all for today! We hope everyone has a great Week 2.

Check back here on Monday for a recap of all the weekend’s action - subscribe below to make sure you don’t miss out!