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Week 10 2024 MHSAA Football Preview
my 100th newsletter
guys, it’s been awhile
sorry I haven’t been posting much this season… I’ve just been preoccupied with Teamfi
hopefully you’ve still found time to enjoy my website - i’ve been updating it weekly, and I even made the ‘Premium’ portion free for everyone to view.
(to check that out, go to the ‘predictions’ tab on my website… it’s awesome).
back to business.
being that this week is the start of the playoffs, I still wanted to get a post out.
Also… this is my 100th newsletter.
It’s now been over 3 years since I started Goosepoop, and 100 newsletters later, i’m having a lot of fun covering the world’s greatest sport
(Michigan High School Football)
Thanks to all who have bore with me.
Today’s lineup
I was on some podcasts
The computer’s favorite finals
The biggest finals ‘lock’
Division 2 Chaos?
Week 10 Point Spreads
I tried to be funny
Not as in-depth as some of my other playoff preview guides…. but, since my whole website is free now, hopefully heading there will help fill in some of the gaps
My real job
Ever wonder how Goose spends his free time?
(didn’t think so)
but… i’ll tell you anyways
last year, i started a company called teamfi
i started it to help my dad
he’s a high school football coach in the state
and he was pissed about running fundraisers where he didn’t get to keep all the money
so i built him teamfi to help him do that
if your team or school group wants to do the same this winter, give me a shout by clicking the link below
i’ll get you set up & fundraising within 24 hours
(you can also see some of the teams who we’ve helped already, just keep scrolling)
I was on some podcasts
look guys - it’s so much easier to podcast than it is to write newsletters
and that’s why this week, I was on 2 of them
the first is one i’ve been pushing the last 4 weeks
it’s me, the Friday Night Victors crew, and some others
we chatted through the computer model’s projections for each 11-man bracket.
it’s an easy listen, perfect for your commute home today:
this week we preview every division's bracket, and discuss how the computer model has things shaking out
give it a listen, chris did a great job of keeping us moving through each of the 8 divisions
— Goosepoop (@goosepoop_)
7:58 PM • Oct 31, 2024
this week’s second podcast was a familiar face
the GLSF crew & I reformed to project the brackets as well.
we also each made picks in all divisions (mine are the computer’s, not personal preference).
give this a listen, too:
In Ep. 52, @goosepoop_ joins us to preview the 2024 MHSAA football playoffs & make predictions for the final four & champs for each division in 11-man football!
Listen/watch the full episode here: linktr.ee/GLSFootball
— Great Lakes State Football (@GLSFball)
12:30 PM • Oct 31, 2024
The computer’s favorite finals
i put this out on monday - it’s the computer’s favorite final across all scenarios
d1, d8, and d7 are all <20% likelihood, meaning the computer views those divisions as the biggest toss ups
d3 is the opposite - over 1/3rd of the time, it has wlw & dewitt.
the computer's favorite final, by division:
d1: dcc / hudsonville (occurs in 12.6% of all scenarios)
d2: olsm / mona shores (20.6%)
d3: dewitt / wlw (38%)
d4: unity / goodrich (24%)
d5: grwc / armada (21.7%)
d6: lumen / almont (28.6%)
d7: hudson / menominee (14.9%)
d8: harbor… x.com/i/web/status/1…— Goosepoop (@goosepoop_)
12:53 AM • Oct 29, 2024
The biggest finals ‘lock’
do you believe that Dewitt has a 64% chance to win D3, before we’ve even played a playoff game?
that’s what the computer thinks.
see all the computer’s favorites in the tweet below:
the computer's favorite to win it all, by division:
d1: dcc (40%)
d2: olsm (49%)
d3: dewitt (64%) - crazy
d4: unity (36%)
d5: pndp (27%) - grwc & armada v close behind
d6: lumen (48%)
d7: menominee (25%) - first up 11man champ since '16?
d8: harbor beach (25%) - d8 runs thru… x.com/i/web/status/1…— Goosepoop (@goosepoop_)
1:15 AM • Oct 29, 2024
Division 2 Chaos
very interested to see how d2 plays out this weekend
could see either team winning in basically half of the 16 games
does not happen often like that
more on that:
the division 2 bracket will be absolute chaos this weekend
> 3 opening round games under w/ a single point spread
> 4 more w/ under a touchdown point spread
> 1 more w/in 2 scoresdon't try to pick it, your bracket will be busted
— Goosepoop (@goosepoop_)
1:02 AM • Oct 29, 2024
Week 10 Point Spreads
fellas - i’m not going to type out the computer’s point spreads for all 128 11-man games this week
and that’s not because i don’t care
it’s just that they’re already on my website 😀
click this link and select ‘impact games’ at the top of your screen.
you’ll see the computer’s spread on each of the 16 d1 playoff games
(you can flip through all 8 divisions using the selector)
when you do what i’m describing above, you’ll see my projections, like this one for division 1
I tried to be funny
and we’ll have a formula, called playoff points
it will be fairly complicated, but it will ensure teams aren’t docked for playing harder schedules
“brilliant. surely we’ll use that to seed the bracket?”
well, kind of
— Goosepoop (@goosepoop_)
1:31 PM • Oct 29, 2024
look, i joke, but this is honestly something that the coach’s association has been pushing for several years
(not even seeding the whole bracket - just the baby step of moving to seeding the regionals)
if you want to help change things, consider asking your athletic director to lobby the MHSAA rep council
that’s where this issue has died in the past
that’s all for this week guys
if you want to get future issues, subscribe below 🙂