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Week 1 2023 MHSAA Football Preview

Two sets of projections for all of this week's best games

August 23, 2023

Hi Everyone!

Welcome back to Goosepoop #69!

We’re BACK!

Week #1 of the season is upon us, and the newsletter is back with a fresh set of projections.

Before we jump in, a few notes for what you’re about to see:

  1. ‘Who You Guys Think Will Win’ is the data I’ve taken from user submissions on our forecasting tool, the Playoff Wizard (there’s been 3500+ submissions in the past 3 days). It should be *fairly* unbiased as it includes submissions from both teams considered.

  2. ‘Computer Model’s Projection’ is still HIGHLY INACCURATE. Why? Because the best way to forecast a team’s future performance is their current, in-season performance to-date. Because this is Week 0, we have no data on any team to project with. So, what you see below is each team’s final 2022 rating… fun to look at, but has *almost* no grounding in reality. Our real, ACCURATE computer ratings will start after Week 3.

Finally, before you read below, check out our two most recent posts. These include a WEALTH of season preview data on EVERY 11 & 8-man team in the State, and you don’t want to miss them:

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Thursday’s Best Games

Davison vs. Warren De La Salle

Returning D2 State Champion De La Salle gets started against a Davison squad that was highly regarded by the computer this past fall (they fell by upset to Clarkston in the District Finals).

  • Who you guys think will win: 70% De La Salle (50 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): De La Salle -8

Chippewa Valley vs. West Bloomfield

Two D1 heavyweights prepare to blow it out in a game that will help us tell the relative strengths of the OAA and MAC this year. Both are returning playoff teams who made first round exits - West Bloomfield lost to Semi-Finalist Cass Tech, and Chippewa Valley lost to District Finalist Romeo.

  • Who you guys think will win: 70% West Bloomfield (10 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): West Bloomfield -4

Whitehall vs. Unity Christian

Whitehall surprised quite a few last year with their opening week victory over Unity, who had been the State’s top computer model team the year before (2021). The Vikes continued the trend for most of the year, reigning as D4’s top-rated team until falling in the Regional finals to eventual State Champion, South Christian. Does Whitehall have it in them once more? And how about Unity? Do they return to 2021 form in 2023?

  • Who you guys think will win: 100% Whitehall (18 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Whitehall -17

Friday’s Best Games

Muskegon vs. Rockford

It’s an oldie but a goodie. Muskegon and Rockford haven’t squared off since 2013, and their all-time series stands squarely tied at 5-5. Muskegon returns as the D3 runner-up, while Rockford is coming off an undefeated regular season, one that ended in heartbreak fashion with a 1 point loss to eventual D1 runner-up, Caledonia.

  • Who you guys think will win: 54% Rockford (37 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Rockford -16

Belleville vs. River Rouge

Belleville is the 2x defending D1 State Champ, owner of the State’s longest 11-man win streak (25 straight games), and has perhaps the nation’s best Junior player in Quarterback Bryce Underwood. River Rouge is no slouch themselves: they were at times our top-rated D3 team last year, and would have likely made a deep playoff run, had some peculiarities with the playoff seeding system not forced them to play the eventual State Champion, Detroit MLK, first round.

  • Who you guys think will win: 92% Belleville (26 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Belleville -15

Caledonia vs. Romeo

Last year’s D1 runner-up squares off against District finalist Romeo at the Big House. From a modeler’s perspective, I love this matchup: it gives us a read on OK Red vs. MAC Red strength very early on.

  • Who you guys think will win: 71% Caledonia (34 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Caledonia -19

Goodrich vs. Frankenmuth

Last year this matchup went off some-what quietly, with Frankenmuth securing the win, 27-2 (safety alert!). This year, not so much: both teams are returning State Finalists in Divisions 4 & 5, respectively.

  • Who you guys think will win: 72% Frankenmuth (29 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Frankenmuth -13

West Catholic vs. Edwardsburg (moved from Thursday)

In 2022, West Catholic kicked off their D6 State Title run with a 28-20 victory over the Eddies. At the time, many observers thought the result indicated a ‘down’ year for Edwardsburg. As the season wore out, the opposite was true: the Eddies turned in another impressive season (they won every other game until falling by 6 points to eventual State Champion, South Christian), and West Catholic was just that good (WC finished as the computer’s 15th best team, regardless of classification).

  • Who you guys think will win: 54% West Catholic (54 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): West Catholic -11

Saturday’s Best Games

Grand Rapids Catholic Central vs. Loyola Academy (IL)

Last year, GRCC turned in a ‘down’ year, by only their standards (they lost in the State Semi Finals). Consequently, many will be looking to see if they’re due to return to their usual form via their Week 1 performance…..I am here to tell you, if they lose, DON’T use too much of this game as a measuring stick. Loyola Academy is VERY GOOD - others had the Ramblers as the second best team in Illinois this past year, with a computer rating exceeding ALL of the top teams in our State.

  • Who you guys think will win: 50% GRCC (24 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): N/A

Detroit MLK vs. St Xavier (OH)

Defending D3 State Champion Detroit King begins a 2023 slate that includes 3 out-of-state opponents when they square off with the storied Bombers of St Xavier.

  • Who you guys think will win: 76% St Xavier (17 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): N/A

Cass Tech vs. Southfield A&T

If history tells us anything, this one will be fun. To open 2022, these two programs played a back-and-forth, score-fest that ended in a Southfield victory, 56-54. They then rematched in the District Finals, where Cass avenged their season opening loss, 25-14.

  • Who you guys think will win: 50% Cass Tech (16 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Cass Tech -8

Other Games to Watch Out For

Reed City vs. Kinsgley

  • The best game in Division 6

  • Who you guys think will win: 80% Kingsley (20 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Kingsley -2

Millington vs. Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port-Laker

  • The best game in Division 7

  • Who you guys think will win: 60% Millington (10 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Millington -8

New Lothrop vs. Muskegon Catholic Central

  • The best game in Division 8

  • Who you guys think will win: 77% New Lothrop (47 Total Playoff Wizard Submissions)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): New Lothrop -13

Martin vs. Colon

  • The best game in 8-Man, Division 1

  • Who you guys think will win: N/A (no Playoff Wizard for 8Man)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Martin -35

Morrice vs. Breckenridge

  • The best game in 8-Man, Division 2

  • Who you guys think will win: (no Playoff Wizard for 8Man)

  • Computer Model’s Projection (from last year ONLY): Morrice -5

Don’t See Your Team’s Projections?

Want to see your team’s Playoff Wizard data & Computer Model Projections?

Then PLEASE let me know by leaving your email at the Goosepoop Pro interest form on our website.

I’m working on building something that showcases ALL of the computer model’s data, and is updated weekly……

….. but knowing that you guys would be interested in paying for something like this will make me go faster!

That’s all for this week, guys. Stay tuned for next week’s post, where we’ll wrap up this week’s action and take a look at Week 2!

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