Week 1 2022 Preview

A short viewing guide for this week's biggest games

August 24, 2022

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #33!

We are now officially in-season. That means we’ll resume our normal schedule of twice weekly posts, starting with this one. Each week, you can expect a wrap-up of the week’s action on Monday, followed by a preview of the week ahead on Wednesday.

This post is the first of our fourteen weekly previews. Today (as with every weekly preview), we will try to give you three things:

  1. Big Games: A brief overview of 2-5 of the State’s biggest games

  2. Fun Facts: A smattering of ‘fun facts’ about matchups occurring that week

  3. Other Info: General football information (polls, etc.)

Before we jump into post, I want to take a second and thank you guys, the members of our community. The support we receive from you all is the reason we continue to post these updates, and we are proud to say that we now have over 516 subscribers! Let’s keep pushing to 1000!

On that note, if you like what you’re reading, please take a second to subscribe & share. You guys reading each week and sharing with your family & friends really is the best way for us to grow, so we appreciate any support we can get on that front.

Lastly, if you haven’t checked out any of our 2022 season preview posts, I highly suggest you do that (links below):

Week 1 Big Games

Ok - time to talk football. Specifically, let’s talk about this week’s biggest games. We’ve got 3 of them this week, all selected because they feature teams with the highest average power rating from our Goosepoop computer model:

  • Edwardsburg vs. West Catholic

  • Grand Blanc vs. Grandville

  • Cedar Springs vs. River Rouge

One aside on our selection criteria: the games selected this week were derived from last year’s results. As we don’t yet have any 2022 data to base our computer model off of, all computer model rankings are based solely on 2021 results.

This will change post Week 3 of the regular season (when we unveil our inaugural Goosepoop power poll) but until then, we will use a combination of teams’ last year computer model ranking, PLUS their week 1 & 2 results to select our weekly ‘Big Games’.

Edwardsburg vs. West Catholic

Not a ton of surprises here - based on last year’s record and playoff results, Edwardsburg would be your favorite. Both the model AND playoff wizard users agree with this approach - 70% of users in the Playoff Wizard have the Eddies winning, and the model has the Eddies as an 11 point favorite, with a projected score of 35 - 24. We will find out how correct we are when both teams take the field this Friday night at Hope College.

Grand Blanc vs. Grandville

We were a bit surprised when this game showed up as the #2 game this week, ahead of some other D1 matchups like Stevenson / West Bloomfield or Holt / Caledonia. However, our model really likes Grandville - this is driven by their 2021 penchant for scoring points in bunches. You can see this play out in the score prediction, which goes contrary to what Playoff Wizard users have picked: if things go as modeled, this will be a back and forth affair, with Grandville edging out Grand Blanc, 35 - 33. Look for this one tomorrow afternoon @ 4PM as part of the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic.

Cedar Springs vs. River Rouge

Our third best game this week is an all Division 3 matchup. While both teams posted 3 loss seasons last year, they also both played incredibly tough schedules (both only lost to regional finalists or better). That strength of schedule is why we’ve got this game rated so highly: both teams punch far above other 3 loss teams around the State.

So how will this one shake out? Our model and Playoff Wizard users seem to agree here: River Rouge is the favorite, with a projected final score of 35 - 27. To find out if either are correct, we’ll have to wait until Saturday, as both teams kick off the final game of the Xenith Prep Football Classic @ 4PM.

3 Sets of Fun Facts for Week 1

Games Between Returning Regional Finalists or Better

Amazingly, none of these teams registered high enough on our model’s list to be selected as one of our top 3 games this week.

  • Sterling Heights Stevenson (SEMIS) vs. West Bloomfield (REGIONALS)

  • Traverse City Central (FINALS) vs. St Joseph (SEMIS)

  • Brother Rice (REGIONALS) vs. Macomb Dakota (REGIONALS)

  • Detroit Country Day (REGIONALS) vs. Detroit Loyola (REGIONALS)

Here’s how the Playoff Wizard users are picking those games:

The Highest Rated Game in Every Division

There’s quite a few repeats here, but enjoy nonetheless:

  • D1: Grand Blanc vs. Grandville

  • D2: Traverse City Central vs. St Joseph

  • D3: Cedar Springs vs. River Rouge

  • D4: Edwardsburg vs. West Catholic

  • D5: Frankenmuth vs. Goodrich

  • D6: Montague vs. Spring Lake

  • D7: Lumen Christi vs. New Lothrop

  • D8: Beal City vs. Ravenna

Here’s how the Playoff Wizard users are picking these games:

Tracking the Champs

Finally, let’s check in on where last year’s State Champs are scheduled to play:

  • D1: Belleville vs. Novi

  • D2: Warren DLS vs. Detroit Renaissance

  • D3: Detroit MLK vs.Warren Central (IN)

  • D4: Chelsea vs. Trenton

  • D5: Grand Rapids CC vs. Port Huron

  • D6: Lansing CC vs. Lansing Waverly

  • D7: Pewamo - Westphalia vs. Redford Union

  • D8: Hudson* vs. Hanover - Horton

*note that Hudson is now in D7 this year

Here’s how the Playoff Wizard users are picking these games:

Other Useful Information

Coaches Poll

The MHSFCA just released their first coaches poll of the season. If you’d like a look at where the State’s coaches are rating each other’s teams, across all 8 11-man divisions, I highly suggest you check this out:

Neutral Site Games

As hinted in the note above, there are a smattering of neutral site games occurring this week. Here’s a heads up on some of the largest ones; my apologies if I miss some:

That’s all for today! We hope everyone has a great Week 1.

Check back here on Monday for a recap of all the weekend’s action - subscribe below to make sure you don’t miss out!