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The Wrap-Up: Week 9 2021
Find out which 5 teams received their first loss in Week 9
As promised in the Week 9 preview we sent last Thursday, we’re sending along our weekly review email a day earlier than usual. This is because this week, we’ll be sending our Playoff Preview package on the day we normally post the Wrap-Up (Monday).
As usual, within this week’s note, you’ll find sections devoted to the following:
Last week’s big games (Big Game Review)
Tracking remaining unbeaten teams (Survivor Island)
Teams leading the state in various categories (Superlatives)
An update on how the new playoff methodology is playing out (Playoff Picture)
As we still don’t have first round playoff matches nailed down, we’ll be leaving out our normal next week preview section from this note - stay tuned for our Playoff Preview package on Monday for information on next week’s big games.
Lastly, before you start reading, make sure you subscribe….. that way you’ll never miss one of our notes!
Week 9 Big Game Review
In our Week 9 preview, we prepped you for the 4 Week 9 games between undefeated teams:
Troy (D1, 8-0) vs. Bloomfield Hills (D1, 8-0)
Kingsley (D5, 8-0) vs. Traverse City St Francis (D7, 8-0)
Lansing Catholic (D6, 8-0) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (D7, 8-0)
Jonesville (D6, 8-0) vs. Addison (D8, 8-0)
As our Playoff Wizard users predicted, every single one of these games was competitive, with 3 out of 4 coming down to one score, and all decided within 11 points.
You can read the full preview for yourself, but for a short recap of how each game played out, see below:
Troy at Bloomfield Hills
In a game that decided the OAA-B title, Bloomfield Hills won, 21-10. Troy jumped out to a 10-6 lead midway through the 2nd quarter, but it was all Bloomfield Hills after that, as they scored the go-ahead touchdown late in the first half and held on from there.
True to form for both teams, there was minimal scoring; Bloomfield Hills held Troy to less than their season average points allowed (10), which is 5th among all Division 1 teams (strength of schedule may have something to do with this, as Bloomfield Hills opponents have the 2nd fewest wins among all Division 1 teams playing 9 games).
Both teams will now advance to the Division 1 playoffs; outside of COVID, this will be both team’s first trip since 2017. Our Playoff Wizard has Troy at Sterling Heights Stevenson, with Bloomfield Hills home against Detroit Catholic Central. Make sure to check our Playoff Preview for actual matchups once they are announced later today.
Highlights / Press Coverage:
Here’s the D Zone with tape on Bloomfield’s go-ahead touchdown:
And here’s Brandon Folsom from Hometown Life with post-game coverage
Playoff Wizard Users’ Prediction : 66.7% Troy. INCORRECT.
Traverse City St. Francis at Kingsley
St Francis defeated Kingsley 38-30. Aided by a St Francis fumble on the opening kickoff, Kingsley jumped out to an early 16-0 lead in the 2nd quarter. St Francis then stormed back, rattling off 24 unanswered points in the 2nd to finish the half in control. St Francis never rescinded the lead after that.
This loss is Kingsley’s first ‘real’ loss since their 2019 semifinal showdown with Lansing Catholic (they forfeited out of last year’s playoffs). Our Playoff Wizard is forecasting their round 1 matchup against Grant, although they could very well be in a different district with Gladwin and Clare, where they would face Kingsford.
For St Francis, they wrap up their first 9-0 season since 2018. They will advance to the Division 7 playoffs, where our Playoff Wizard is projecting a first-round matchup with East Jordan. Again, they could very be in a different district, facing Harrison.
Highlights / Press Coverage:
Here’s the Record-Eagle’s post game coverage
Playoff Wizard Users’ Prediction : 68.9% St Francis. CORRECT.
Lansing Catholic at Pewamo-Westphalia
Pewamo-Westphalia showcased their Division 7 leading defense, holding the Lansing Catholic offense to just one score in their 12-7 win. The low scoring is a bit of a headscratcher here, as Lansing Catholic had been allowing nearly 17 points per game, in a schedule that featured much lesser opponents.
That said, a win is a win, and this one is certainly marquee for PW: if you want to play the daisy chain game, they have now beat the team (LCC) that beat the team (Portland) that beat DeWitt. Well done, Pewamo-Westphalia.
PW will now likely face Hemlock in their first round matchup (per our Playoff Wizard projections). As for Lansing Catholic, we have them hosting Michigan Center in what is one of the toughest districts in the State (8-1 LCC, 8-1 Michigan Center, 9-0 Jonesville, 9-0 Constantine). Let’s hope the MHSAA sees it differently than us.
Highlights / Press Coverage:
Here’s Brian Calloway of the LSJ with PW’s go-ahead score
And here’s WILX-10 with more highlights and post game coverage
Playoff Wizard Users’ Prediction : 61.1% Pewamo-Westphalia. CORRECT.
Jonesville at Addison
In the Big 8 / Cascades crossover game, the Big 8 prevailed, with Jonesville defeating Addison, 20-14. Jonesville lead the entire game, jumping out to a 20-0 lead in the third quarter, with Addison climbing their way back into the game with 2 scores from there. Addison would come close to tying things back up as they were driving late, but a turnover on downs with under two minutes left ended things.
With the win, Jonesville wraps up their fist 9-0 season since 1988. If things go according to the Playoff Wizard’s projections, Jonesville will find themselves in one of the State’s toughest districts (LCC, Michigan Center, and Constantine), facing fellow 9-0 Constantine in a road game.
Addison will most likely wind up in a tough district themselves: we have them with Hudson, Ottawa Lake Whiteford, and Sand Creek. Together, these teams represent the #3, #1, #2, and #11 playoff point teams in Division 8 - if things go like this, this will be without a doubt the toughest district in the State, and perhaps ever.
Highlights / Press Coverage:
Here’s Addison’s turnover on downs from their final drive (courtesy of Eric Ingles):
Other Big Games
As always, in addition to our featured games, we gave you the Playoff Wizard user picks in the State’s 4 matchups between 8-0 and 7-1 teams. These were uncharacteristically off, with the PW users going 1-3 in their picks (they only got Gladwin over Standish-Sterling right).
As it was the last week of the regular season, we also treated you to the Playoff Wizard user picks for the State’s 6 matchups between 1 loss teams. Here, the Users were much better, going a perfect 6-0. Nice Work!
In all, Playoff Wizard users went 9-5 on the week, wrapping up their record on the year at 27-8-1 (we only started in Week 7). Nice work everyone!
Bubble Game Review
Lastly, there were 4 games in Week 9 between teams within 4 places of playoff qualification (teams ‘on the bubble’).
Brighton (#35, D1) vs. Livonia Franklin (#30, D2)
Troy Athens (#30, D1) vs. Auburn Hills Avondale (#30, D3)
Mattawan (#32, D3) vs. Battle Creek Central (#32, D3)
Detroit Cody (#33, D5) vs. Detroit Osborn (#30, D6)
At the time, we were viewing these games as an extension of the playoffs - the winner would make the playoffs in Week 10, and the loser would finish their season.
This largely held true: Livonia Franklin, Auburn Hills Avondale, and Mattawan all won their Week 9 matchup and MADE the playoffs. Conversely, their opponents (Brighton, Troy Athens, and Battle Creek Central) are NOT in the playoff field.
Survivor Island: Unbeaten Teams
Week 9 action gave 5 teams their first loss of the season, dropping our total number of unbeaten teams to 27.
Congrats to all those listed below; 9-0 is quite the accomplishment!
Dropping Out: Troy (Lost to Bloomfield Hills, 21-10)
Dropping Out: Brownstown Woodhaven (Lost to Gibraltar Carlson, 28-14)
With 5 unbeaten teams in Division 1, at least 1 is guaranteed to go home before the semi-finals.
Warren De La Salle Collegiate
Hudsonville Unity Christian
Grand Rapids Catholic Central
Dropping Out: Kingsley (Lost to Traverse City St Francis, 38-30)
With 6 unbeatens, D5 will have at least 2 going home before the semi-finals.
Also, given their proximity, Comstock Park & Grand Rapids Catholic Central will likely find themselves in the same District.
Dropping Out: Lansing Catholic (Lost to Pewamo-Westphalia, 12-7)
Similar to D5, Jonesville & Constantine could find themselves in the same District this year.
Traverse City St Francis
Dropping Out: Addison (Lost to Jonesville, 20-14)
Most Points Scored: Zeeland West over Holland (70-6)
Largest Margin of Victory: Shrine Catholic over Detroit Comm. Media (67-0)
Largest Upset (by Record): Lincoln Park (0-8) over Melvindale (5-3)
Largest Upset (by Playoff Points): Lincoln Park (17.8) over Melvindale (43.00)
Most Total Points: River Rouge vs. Southfield AT&T (45-44)
Lowest Total Points: Perry vs. Bath (13-0)
Most Overtimes: L’Anse Creuse vs. L’Anse Creuse North (26-23, 3 OT)
Average Points Scored (highest): 55.2 (Lawton)
Average Points Scored (lowest): 0.8 (Okemos)
Average Points Allowed (highest): 60.3 (Coloma)
Average Points Allowed (lowest): 4.3 (Pewamo-Westphalia)
Average Margin of Victory (highest): 50.3 (Edwardsburg)
Average Margin of Victory (lowest): -55.9 (Coloma)
Total wins by opponents (highest): Tie. 53 (Ogemaw Heights, Marysville, & Oxford)
Total wins by opponents (lowest): Tie. 25 (Mount Pleasant & Stockbridge)
MHSAA Bonus Points (highest): 32.7 (Oxford)
MHSAA Bonus Points (lowest): 7.8 (Stockbridge)
Avg. Opponent margin of victory (highest): Ogemaw Heights (13.9)
Avg. Opponent margin of victory (lowest): Comstock (-18.6)
Most Playoff Teams Played1: Warren De La Salle (8)
Least Playoff Teams Played: Tie. Perry, Holton, Stockbridge, and Detroit Comm. Media (1)
Updated Week 9 playoff point calculations are now on the MHSAA’s site. If your team is listed as having the top 32 of total playoff points within their division, they have made the playoffs.
Given that the methodology for calculating playoff points changed this year, teams with losing records have qualified for the playoffs for the first time in history. Vis versa, some teams with 6+ wins have been left on the outside looking in.
Below is a quick snapshot of how this played out this year:
Teams w/ losing records IN the playoffs:
Livonia Franklin (D2)
Detroit U-D Jesuit (D2)
Saginaw Heritage (D2)
Auburn Hills Avondale (D3)
South Lyon East (D3)
Flint Powers Catholic (D5)
Maple City Glen Lake (D6)
North Muskegon (D7)
Niles Brandywine (D7)
White Cloud (D8)
Flint Beecher (D8)
Most of the teams above finished 4-5, save for two who finished 3-6 (South Lyon East and Flint Powers Catholic).
Teams w/ winning records OUT of the playoffs:
Troy Athens (D1)
Wyoming Godwin Heights (D4)
Detroit Henry Ford (D4)
Sault Ste Marie (D4)
Flint Hamady (D5)
Royal Oak Shrine Catholic (D6)
Lake City (D6)
Kent City (D6)
Morley Stanwood (D6)
Adrian Madison (D6)
St Louis (D7)
Burton Bendle (D7)
Most of these teams finished at 5-4, although a handful were 5-3 or 6-3 (these are bolded).
Additionally, D6 had the most teams with winning records miss the playoffs - this is not surprising, given the wide spread in ADPs among the teams in that Division (see our previous note on this topic).
Once again, thanks for reading. For information on Week 10 matchups, stay tuned for our Playoff Preview package, which should go out sometime tomorrow (Monday).
Lastly - could you do us a huge favor?
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Many thanks to a Goose Dropping subscriber for suggesting the addition of this superlative this week