The Wrap-Up: Week 13 2021

Hi all,

Welcome back for our Week 13 Wrap-Up. See below for what’s in store for this week’s report:

• Big Game Review - a short wrap-up on how each of our featured games from Week 13 played out

• System Study - some facts on how the new playoff point system fared in its second week

• Survivor Island - tracking remaining unbeaten teams

• Bracket Busters - identifying the regions & semis in each bracket where underdogs have prevailed

• Superlatives - teams leading the state in offense, defense, and other categories

• Week 14 Big Games - we’re down to the last week of the season. Later this week, we will be releasing a preview of EVERY state final matchup

Before we jump into it, make sure you subscribe below. That way you’ll never miss one of our posts.

Big Game Review

In our Week 13 Preview, we gave you an overview of the 7 matchups occurring between top 5 teams in the Semi Final round. You can read the full preview of each at the link, but for a quick rundown of how each played out, see below:

#5 Rochester Adams (12-0) vs. #4 Grand Blanc (12-0) @ Howell, Saturday 1PM

In a battle of unbeatens, Rochester Adams prevailed, winning 40-20. This game was interesting in two respects: Grand Blanc jumped out to a 14-0 lead, only to have Adams score 33 unanswered from there. Adams also performed offensively: we told you previously that Adams came into the game scoring the fewest points of any unbeaten team.

Adams now advances to their first final since 2003, when they defeated Brother Rice for the D2 crown. This year, they will face Belleville, who is playing in their first title game.

Highlights / Press Coverage

• State Champs! highlight of a Rochester Adams pick 6:

• State Champs! highlight of a 97 yard TD run by Grand Blanc:

• Mlive post-game Wrap Up

• Mother Goose’s pick: Grand Blanc. INCORRECT.

#4 Traverse City Central (11-1) vs. #2 South Lyon (12-0) @ Greenville, Saturday 1PM

Traverse City Central continued to demolish anything in their way, winning big over an undefeated South Lyon, 56-20. The win adds to what is already a near perfect resume for Traverse City Central: outside of a week 1 loss to DeWitt, they have yet to win by anything less than 3 scores. In the last 2 weeks alone, they have defeated a 10-1 Caledonia team by 28 and a 12-0 South Lyon by 36.

TCC now advances to their first state final since 1988, when they defeated Detroit Catholic Central for the Class A title. This time, TCC will face another Catholic League foe, squaring off against undefeated Warren De La Salle for the D2 crown.

• State Champs! highlights from the game:

• MIPrepZone post game Wrap-Up:

• Mother Goose’s pick: Traverse City Central. CORRECT.

#3 Edwardsburg (12-0) vs. #2 Unity Christian (12-0) @ Portage Northern, Saturday 1PM

We just got done telling you how impressive TCC has been. As of this moment, there is only one team more impressive, and that’s Unity Christian. Here’s some quick facts for you: 1.) Unity is on pace to set the State’s all time single season scoring record (they only need 20 or so points next week to do it) 2.) Unity’s closest margin of victory is 26 points (40-14 over West Catholic), and they win on average by 45 points 3.) Unity just got done blowing out undefeated Edwardsburg, 58-8, who was almost equally impressive, entering the game with the second highest margin of victory in the State themselves.

So, is a Division 4 team the best in the State? Unity certainly makes a compelling case for the designation. Their final game is against undefeated Chelsea, and if they do what they did to Edwardsburg to them, you kind of have to give it to them. This game will take place Friday evening, and it marks the Crusaders' second time in the finals, having previously defeated Portland for the D5 crown in 2018. Chelsea will be making their first appearance since 2018 as well, having lost that year to Edwardsburg in the D4 game.

• Fox 17 highlights from the game:

• Mlive post game Wrap-Up

• Mother Goose’s pick: Unity Christian. CORRECT.

#4 Frankenmuth (12-0) vs. #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central (12-0) @ Mount Pleasant, Saturday 1PM

All of this talk of Traverse City Central & Unity Christian disregards GRCC, who is quietly putting together a very impressive season themselves. They’ve yet to win by less than 3 scores, and have defeated some tough opponents along the way (9-1 West Catholic and Merillville Andrean (IN), who is in the Indiana State Finals). Perhaps most impressively, they defeated Frankenmuth 35-0 this week, in what I had projected to be their best remaining possible game.

GRCC now extends their win streak 36, and they will play for their 3rd straight State Championship on Saturday evening. There, they will face another undefeated opponent, Marine City. Marine City is back in the finals, having previously won the D4 crown in 2013.

• State Champs! highlights from the game:

• Mlive post game Wrap-Up

• Mother Goose’s pick: Grand Rapids Catholic Central. CORRECT.

#5 Pewamo-Westphalia (12-0) vs. #3 Traverse City St Francis (12-0) @ Cedar Springs, Saturday 1PM

In a marquee matchup of perennial D7 powers, Pewamo-Westphalia held the day, winning 28-21. With the victory, P-W returns to the finals after a 1 year break, having previously won the D7 crown in 2019 over Lumen Christi. There, they will face a D7 upstart, Lawton, who is undefeated themselves, but is making their first ever trip to the finals.

• State Champs! highlights from the game:

• Sentinel-Standard’s post game Wrap-Up

• Mother Goose’s pick: Pewamo-Westphalia. CORRECT.

#5 Ubly (12-0) vs. #4 Beal City (11-1) @ Mt. Morris, Saturday 1PM

In this game & the next, this newsletter once again showed its inability to predict the outcomes of D8 football games: whereas we projected the Ubly Bearcats to continue their impressive performances to date, they could not get past Beal City, losing 12-7.

Beal City now advances to their first final since 2019, doing so in a similar fashion, having defeated Ubly in the semifinal on that run as well. There, they will face unbeaten Hudson.

• State Champs! highlight of Beal City’s first TD

• Huron Daily’s post game Wrap-Up

• Mother Goose’s pick: Ubly. INCORRECT.

#2 Ottawa Lake-Whiteford (11-1) vs. #1 Hudson (12-0) @ Adrian College, Saturday 1PM

As I alluded to above, it’s becoming clear you shouldn’t put much stock in our D8 picks: whereas we had Whiteford’s offense breaking through against a stout Hudson defense, the opposite occurred. After a quick 22-0 start to the game, Hudson was able to hold Whiteford scoreless for the entire second half, storming back in their own right to win, 28-22. 

Hudson now advances to their first final since 2010, when they defeated Ishpeming. There, they will face Beal City (see above).

• State Champs! highlights of Hudson’s 4 second-half touchdowns:

• LenConnect’s post game Wrap-Up

• Mother Goose’s pick: Whiteford. INCORRECT.

Mother Goose’s updated playoff record: 17-6.

System Study

This is a continuation of a section we first featured in our Week 10 Wrap-Up: we’re tracking how good the new playoff point system is at seeding teams.

• Last week, if you picked only the teams with more playoff points to win, you would have been correct 81% of the time. (6 upsets / 32 total games) = 19%

• This week, the metric was down slightly: the team with more playoff points won 75% of the time. (4 upsets / 16 total games) = 25%

• From a comparative standpoint, if you would have just picked the team with the better record to win, you would have been right only 56% of the time this week. This is down from 78% last week.

As a reminder, the goal of any system used to seed teams should be to have 0 upsets. This is obviously an unobtainable goal, so the fact that this system’s accuracy is hanging in there with the seeding used for the NFL Divisional Round or CFB Playoff Semifinal Round is a good sign (see Week 10 Wrap-Up for more detail on these comparisons).

Lastly, another thing we’re keeping tabs on as a measure of this system is what ‘seeds’ are still in play. Take a look at the below for how this stacks up across the divisions:

Division 1

• Highest Remaining: #5 Rochester Adams

• Lowest Remaining: #6 Belleville

Division 2

• Highest Remaining: #1 Warren De La Salle

• Lowest Remaining: #4 Traverse City Central

Division 3

• Highest Remaining: #1 Detroit MLK

• Lowest Remaining: #2 DeWitt

Division 4

• Highest Remaining: #1 Chelsea

• Lowest Remaining: #2 Hudsonville Unity Christian

Division 5

• Highest Remaining: #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central

• Lowest Remaining: #2 Marine City

Division 6

• Highest Remaining: #1 Lansing Catholic

• Lowest Remaining: #4 Warren Michigan Collegiate

Division 7

• Highest Remaining: #5 Pewamo-Westphalia

• Lowest Remaining: #8 Lawton

Division 8

• Highest Remaining: #1 Hudson

• Lowest Remaining: #4 Beal City

Survivor Island

Week 13 action gave 6 teams their first loss of the season, dropping our total number of unbeaten teams to 9:

Division 1

• Rochester Adams

• Dropping Out: Grand Blanc (Lost to Rochester Adams, 40-20)

Division 2

• Warren De La Salle Collegiate

• Dropping Out: South Lyon (Lost to Traverse City Central, 56-20)

Division 3

• NONE

The Division 3 State Champion will have at least one loss (the next best record teams, Detroit MLK & DeWitt, currently have one loss)

Division 4

• Chelsea

• Hudsonville Unity Christian

• Dropping Out: Edwardsburg (Lost to Unity Christian, 58-8)

Division 5

• Grand Rapids Catholic Central

• Marine City

• Dropping Out: Frankenmuth (Lost to GRCC, 35-0)

Division 6

• NONE

The Division 6 State Champion will have at least one loss (the next best record team, Lansing Catholic, has one loss)

Division 7

• Pewamo-Westphalia

• Lawton

• Dropping Out: Traverse City St Francis (Lost to P-W, 28-21)

Division 8

• Hudson

• Dropping Out: Ubly (Lost to Beal City, 12-7)

Bracket Busters

Aside from who’s still undefeated, another interesting look at how the playoffs are playing out is analyzing the average seed of each Division’s championship games.

By ranking the average seed of each Division’s championship game from highest to best, you can get a sense of which Division’s bracket is most ‘busted’. Below is the ranking of each Division’s average seed, from least ‘busted’ to most ‘busted’:

#6 Tie - Division 5 (Average Seed 1.5)

• #2 Marine City vs. #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central

#6 Tie - Division 4 (Average Seed 1.5)

• #2 Unity Christian vs. #1 Chelsea

#6 Tie - Division 3 (Average Seed 1.5)

• #2 DeWitt vs. #1 Detroit MLK

#3 Tie - Division 8 (Average Seed 2.5)

• #4 Beal City vs. #1 Hudson

#3 Tie - Division 6 (Average Seed 2.5)

• #4 Michigan Collegiate vs. #1 Lansing Catholic

#3 Tie - Division 2 (Average Seed 2.5)

• #4 Traverse City Central vs. #1 Warren De La Salle

#2 - Division 1 (Average Seed 5.5)

• #6 Belleville vs. #5 Rochester Adams

#1 - Division 7 (Average Seed 6.5)

• #8 Lawton vs. #5 Pewamo-Westphalia

Going into the last week, Divisions 3, 4, & 5 appear to have the most proper seeding, with each division’s final featuring a matchup of the top 2 seeds there.

Superlatives

Week 13

Upsets:

• Largest Upset (by Record): Tie. Traverse City Central (11-1) over South Lyon (12-0); Michigan Collegiate (10-2) over Michigan Center (11-1); Beal City (11-1) over Ubly (12-0)

• Largest Upset (by Playoff Points): Lawton (44.1) over Lumen Christi (59.8)

Scoring:

• Most Points Scored: Unity Christian vs. Edwardsburg (58-8)

• Most Total Points: Traverse City Central vs. South Lyon (56-20)

• Lowest Total Points: Beal City vs. Ubly (12-7)

Margin of Victory / OTs:

• Largest Margin of Victory: Unity Christian vs. Edwardsburg (58-8)

• Lowest Margin of Victory: Lawton vs. Lumen Christi (21-20)

• Most Overtimes: None!

Seeding:

• Highest seed to lose: #1 Lumen Christi lost to #8 Lawton, 21-20

• Lowest seed to win: #8 Lawton, beat #1 Lumen Christi, 21-20

Season-to-Date (only reporting teams remaining in the playoff field)

Scoring:

• Average Points Scored (highest): 57.8 (Unity Christian)

• Average Points Scored (lowest): 32.5 (Hudson)

• Average Points Allowed (highest): 16.7 (Detroit MLK)

• Average Points Allowed (lowest): 6.8 (Pewamo-Westphalia)

Margin of Victory:

• Average Margin of Victory (highest): 45.1 (Unity Christian)

• Average Margin of Victory (lowest): 18.3 (Michigan Collegiate)

Strength of Schedule:

• Total wins by opponents (highest): 87 (DeWitt)

• Total wins by opponents (lowest): 65 (Lawton)

• Avg. Opponent margin of victory (highest): 9.9 (Detroit MLK)

• Avg. Opponent margin of victory (lowest): -6.7 (Lawton)

Week 14 Big Games

Last week, we featured the 7 games between top 5 teams in our ‘Big Game’ section. As this is the last week of the season, every game left is a ‘Big Game’: we’re covering all 8 State Finals matchups in our featured section this week.

Division 1

• #6 Belleville (12-1) vs. #5 Rochester Adams (12-0)

Division 2

• #4 Traverse City Central (11-1) vs. #1 Warren De La Salle (12-0)

Division 3

• #2 DeWitt (12-1) vs. #1 Detroit MLK (12-1)

Division 4

• #2 Unity Christian (13-0) vs. #1 Chelsea (13-0)

Division 5

• #2 Marine City (13-0) vs. #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central (13-0)

Division 7

• #8 Lawton (13-0) vs. #5 Pewamo-Westphalia (13-0)

Division 8

• #4 Beal City (12-1) vs. #1 Hudson (13-0)

Check back in on Wednesday (one day early) for our preview of each game.

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