The Wrap-Up: Week 11 2021

Only 16 unbeaten teams remain after Week 11

November 08, 2021

Hi all,

Welcome back for our Week 11 Wrap-Up. See below for what’s in store for this week’s report:

  • Big Game Review - a short wrap-up on how each of our featured games from Week 11 played out

  • System Study - some facts on how the new playoff point system fared in its second week

  • Survivor Island - tracking remaining unbeaten teams

  • Bracket Busters - identifying the regions & semis in each bracket where underdogs have prevailed

  • Superlatives - teams leading the state in offense, defense, and other categories

  • Week 12 Big Games - there are 4 top 6 matchups in Week 12; we will be previewing them all

Before we jump into it, make sure you subscribe below. That way you’ll never miss one of our posts.

Big Game Review

In our Week 11 Preview, we gave you an overview of the 5 matchups occurring between top 5 teams in Week 11. You can read the full preview of each here, but for a quick rundown of how each played out, see below:

Mount Pleasant (#4) vs DeWitt (#2) @ Grand Ledge

In a game where DeWitt only lead 29-26 at the end of 3, DeWitt pulled away late, winning 50-26. DeWitt continues to show why it has the top offense in D3, putting up 50 points on a Mount Pleasant unit that had not allowed more than 19 points all year.

The win marks DeWitt’s 6th straight District title. The defending state champions will now play the second best offense in Division 3, #10 Cedar Springs. Cedar is coming off of an upset win over #5 Muskegon, where they won 21-14.

Highlights / Press Coverage

West Catholic (#3) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (#1)

Catholic Central lead the entire game, posting a 34-6 halftime mark and finishing the game with a 44-6 victory. This is a very impressive win for GRCC, as West Catholic just got done posting a similar mark against 9-0 Comstock Park the week before.

With the win, GRCC captures their 6th straight District title and continues their win streak to 34 straight games. GRCC will now face #12 Muskegon Oakridge in the Regional Final.

Highlights / Press Coverage

Millington (#5) vs Lansing Catholic (#1)

Millington lead 8-7 in the second quarter, but was unable to score from there, as Lansing Catholic posted 3 straight touchdowns to win 28-8. With both Millington and Constantine losing this past weekend, Division 6 no longer has any unbeaten teams.

Lansing Catholic will now face #10 Montague in the Regional Final. Montague just knocked off #2 Reed City, 35-22.

Highlights / Press Coverage

Monroe SMCC (#2) at Jackson Lumen Christi (#1)

Down 6-0 at half, Lumen Christi stormed back to win 21-12. With the win, Lumen Christi guarantees they will not face a higher seeded opponent in the playoffs, as Monroe SMCC was the #2 overall seed in D7.

This win marks the 7th straight District title for Lumen Christi. They will now face another Catholic school, #12 Detroit Loyola, in the Regional Final.

Highlights / Press Coverage

Addison (#3) at Hudson (#1)

Addison lead 8-6 at half but was unable to muster any scoring from there; Hudson came back to win 28-8. Similar to the Lumen Christi / SMCC matchup above, this one was a battle of near the top teams in D8, and Hudson very well may not see another higher seeded opponent this year.

With the win, Hudson captures their first District title since 2016. They will now face #9 White Pigeon in the Regional Final.

Highlights / Press Coverage

After two rounds of play, Mother Goose is now 10-2 in big game picks.

System Study

This is a continuation of a section we first featured in our Week 10 Wrap-Up: we’re tracking how good the new playoff point system is at seeding teams.

  • Last week, if you picked only the teams with more playoff points to win, you would have been correct 71% of the time. (37 upsets / 128 total games) = 29%

  • This week, the metric dropped a little: the team with more playoff points only won 66% of the time. (22 upsets / 64 total games) = 34%

  • From a comparative standpoint, if you would have just picked the team with the better record to win, you would have been right only 56% of the time this week. This is down from 65% last week.

As a reminder, the goal of any system used to seed teams should be to have 0 upsets. This is obviously an unobtainable goal, so the fact that this system’s accuracy is hanging in there with the seeding used for the NFL Divisional Round or CFB Playoff Semifinal Round is a good sign (see Week 10 Wrap-Up for more detail on these comparisons).

Lastly, another thing we’re keeping tabs on as a measure of this system is what ‘seeds’ are still in play. Take a look at the below for how this stacks up across the divisions:

Division 1

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Rockford

  • Lowest Remaining: #20 Macomb Dakota

Division 2

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Warren De La Salle

  • Lowest Remaining: #27 Roseville

Division 3

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Detroit MLK

  • Lowest Remaining: #27 Parma Western

Division 4

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Chelsea

  • Lowest Remaining: #26 Detroit Country Day

Division 5

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central

  • Lowest Remaining: #23 Corunna

Division 6

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Lansing Catholic

  • Lowest Remaining: #23 Calumet

Division 7

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Lumen Christi

  • Lowest Remaining: #22 Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker

Division 8

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Hudson

  • Lowest Remaining: #12 Breckenridge

Survivor Island

Week 11 action gave 5 teams their first loss of the season, dropping our total number of unbeaten teams to 16:

Division 1

  • Rochester Adams

  • Grand Blanc

  • Rockford

Grand Blanc and Rockford play each other in the Regional Finals this coming week.

Division 2

  • South Lyon

  • Warren De La Salle Collegiate

Division 3

  • Dropping Out: Mount Pleasant (Lost to DeWitt, 50-26)

The Division 3 State Champion will have at least one loss (the next best record teams, Detroit MLK & DeWitt, currently have one loss)

Division 4

  • Edwardsburg

  • Chelsea

  • Hudsonville Unity Christian

Division 5

  • Grand Rapids Catholic Central

  • Marine City

  • Frankenmuth

  • Dropping Out: Berrien Springs (Lost to Kalamazoo United, 21-14)

Division 6

  • Dropping Out: Millington (Lost to Lansing Catholic Central, 28-8)

  • Dropping Out: Constantine (Lost to Michigan Center, 28-18)

The Division 6 State Champion will have at least one loss (the next best record teams, Lansing Catholic & Michigan Center, currently have one loss)

Division 7

  • Pewamo-Westphalia

  • Lawton

  • Traverse City St Francis

  • Dropping Out: Detroit Central (Lost to Detroit Loyola, 18-14)

Division 8

  • Hudson

  • Ubly

Bracket Busters

Aside from who’s still undefeated, another interesting look at how the playoffs are playing out is analyzing the average seed of each Division’s regions & semis.

By ranking the average seed of each region from highest to best, you can get a sense of where the bracket is most ‘busted’. Below are the top 5 most ‘busted’ Regions, across all divisions:

#5 - Division 2, Region 4 (Average Seed 14.0)

  • #27 Roseville vs. #1 Warren De La Salle

#4 - Division 1, Region 3 (Average Seed 15.0)

  • #20 Macomb Dakota vs. #10 Sterling Heights Stevenson

#3 - Division 6, Region 3 (Average Seed 20.5)

  • #21 Michigan Center vs. #20 Clinton

#2 - Division 3, Region 2 (Average Seed 24.5)

  • #27 Parma Western vs. #22 St Joseph

#1 - Division 2, Region 3 (Average Seed 24.5)

  • #25 Livonia Franklin vs. #24 Waterford Mott

You can also run this analysis from a Semifinal view. Here’s the top 5 most ‘busted’ Semis:

#5 - Division 5, Semi 2 (Average Seed 12.25)

  • #23 Corunna

  • #18 Kalamazoo United

  • #6 Portland

  • #2 Marine City

#4 - Division 4, Semi 2 (Average Seed 12.5)

  • #26 Detroit Country Day

  • #14 Croswell-Lexington

  • #9 Freeland

  • #1 Chelsea

#3 - Division 3, Semi 1 (Average Seed 15.25)

  • #27 Parma Western

  • #22 St Joseph

  • #10 Cedar Springs

  • #2 DeWitt

#2 - Division 6, Semi 2 (Average Seed 15.5)

  • #21 Michigan Center

  • #20 Clinton

  • #17 Ecorse

  • #4 Warren Michigan Collegiate

#1 - Division 2, Semi 2 (Average Seed 19.25)

  • #27 Roseville

  • #25 Livonia Franklin

  • #24 Waterford Mott

  • #1 Warren De La Salle

Finally, here’s the average remaining seed of each Division:

  • Division 1 - 8.1

  • Division 2 - 12.1

  • Division 3 - 11.4

  • Division 4 - 10.3

  • Division 5 - 9.5

  • Division 6 - 13.0

  • Division 7 - 8.3

  • Division 8 - 5.9

At this point in the game, Division 8’s bracket appears to be the most properly seeded, with 6 of the top 8 seeds remaining in play. Division 1 and Division 7 are close behind, with each having 5 of their top 8 seeds still in.

Strangely enough, Division 2, while having a high average seed across all remaining teams, is the only division with all 4 of its top 4 seeds still in (#1 Warren De La Salle, #2 South Lyon, #3 Caledonia, #4 Traverse City Central)

Superlatives

Week 11

Upsets:

  • Largest Upset (by Record): Detroit Loyola (5-4) over Detroit Central (10-0)

  • Largest Upset (by Playoff Points): Michigan Center (38.4) over Constantine (51.7)

Scoring:

  • Most Points Scored: Unity Christian vs. Grand Rapids Christian (79-21)

  • Most Total Points: Unity Christian vs. Grand Rapids Christian (79-21)

  • Lowest Total Points: Clinton vs. Ida (13-6)

Margin of Victory / OTs:

  • Largest Margin of Victory: Unity Christian vs. Grand Rapids Christian (79-21)

  • Most Overtimes: No Overtime Games this Week!

Seeding:

  • Highest seed to lose: Tie. #2 Romeo (D1), lost to #20 Macomb Dakota 35-20; #2 Reed City (D6), lost to #10 Montague 35-22; #2 Monroe SMCC (D7), lost to #1 Lumen Christi, 21-12

  • Lowest seed to win: Tie. #27 Roseville (D2), beat #14 Port Huron Northern, 41-2; #27 Parma Western (D3), beat #21 BC Harper Creek, 41-28

Season-to-Date (only reporting teams remaining in the playoff field)

Scoring:

  • Average Points Scored (highest): 58.2 (Unity Christian)

  • Average Points Scored (lowest): 23.2 (Livonia Franklin)

  • Average Points Allowed (highest): 28.1 (Livonia Franklin)

  • Average Points Allowed (lowest): 3.8 (Edwardsburg)

Margin of Victory:

  • Average Margin of Victory (highest): 51.0 (Edwardsburg)

  • Average Margin of Victory (lowest): -4.9 (Livonia Franklin)

Strength of Schedule:

  • Total wins by opponents (highest): 71 (Portland)

  • Total wins by opponents (lowest): 43 (White Pigeon)

  • Avg. Opponent margin of victory (highest): 9.8 (Detroit Country Day)

  • Avg. Opponent margin of victory (lowest): -11.2 (Lawton)

Week 12 Big Games

Last week, we featured the 5 games between top 5 teams in our ‘Big Game’ section. As there are only 2 such games occurring this week, we’re going to move the goal post a bit - this week features the 4 games between top 6 teams:

Division 1

  • #4 Grand Blanc (11-0) vs. #1 Rockford (11-0)

Division 2

  • #4 Traverse City Central (10-1) vs. #3 Caledonia (10-1)

Division 3

  • #6 Allen Park (10-1) vs. #1 Detroit MLK (10-1)

Division 8

  • #4 Beal City (10-1) vs. #6 Carson City-Crystal (10-1)

Check back in on Thursday for our preview of each game.

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