The Wrap-Up: Week 10 2021

6 unbeaten teams went down in the first round of playoff action

November 02, 2021

Hi all,

Posting this a day later than normal due to some traveling over the weekend (sorry!).

Because you’ve likely already digested most of the action last week from an outcomes / highlights point of view, we’re going to spend less time on that here and more time on ‘statistic’ sections, like Survivor Island & Superlatives.

With that in mind, below is the table of contents for our Week 10 Wrap-Up:

  • Big Game Review - a short wrap-up on how each of our featured games from Week 10 played out

  • System Study - some facts on how the new playoff point system fared in its first week

  • Survivor Island - tracking remaining unbeaten teams

  • Superlatives - teams leading the state in offense, defense, and other categories

  • Week 11 Big Games - there are 5 top 5 matchups in Week 11; we will be previewing them all

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Big Game Review

In our Week 10 Preview, we gave you an overview of the 7 matchups between top 10 teams. You can read the full preview of each here, but for a quick rundown of how each played out, see below:

Ann Arbor Huron (#10) at Belleville (#6)

Belleville prevailed, 14-10. While this is not a surprising result (Belleville was the favorite going in and we had them as well), the score itself is surprising, as Belleville was the Division 1 leader in points scored and had not scored less than 21 all year.

Next week, Belleville will face #24 Canton, who upset undefeated #3 Saline in Week 10.

Highlights / Press Coverage

Detroit Catholic Central (#9) at Bloomfield Hills (#8)

In what was the most lopsided game of our 7 features, DCC gave Bloomfield Hills their first loss of the season, 51-7. We noted in our preview that while Bloomfield Hills was 9-0, they hadn’t really played anybody, so it was difficult to gauge how good they really were: that dynamic played out on Friday night, where all 4 playoff teams from Bloomfield Hills’ conference lost (Troy, Berkley, Avondale).

Next Week, DCC will face #7 West Bloomfield, who beat #31 Novi in Week 10.

Highlights / Press Coverage

  • Mother Goose’s pick: Detroit Catholic Central. CORRECT.

East Lansing (#10) at Milford (#9)

East Lansing won, 27-0. Similar to Bloomfield Hills, we were skeptical of Milford’s strength, despite them having the higher seed. This was due to several lopsided losses and a negative average point margin.

East Lansing will now continue on the road next week for a matchup with undefeated #2 South Lyon.

Highlights / Press Coverage

Riverview (#7) at Allen Park (#6)

In the Week 10’s second best matchup by seed, Allen Park handed Riverview their first loss of the season, 28-20.

Allen Park now moves on to a matchup with fellow Downriver conference member #3 Gibraltar Carlson, who they previously beat 42-14 in Week 3.

Highlights / Press Coverage

  • Mother Goose’s Pick: Allen Park. CORRECT.

Comstock Park (#5) vs. GR West Catholic (#3) (@ Houseman Field)

Statistically, this was the best matchup of Week 10, as these were the only opponents owning top 5 seeds. On the field, this did not play out, as West Catholic bested Comstock Park, 42-0.

West Catholic now advances to play cross-town rival, #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central, in what will certainly be a feature game for us in Week 11.

Highlights / Press Coverage

New Lothrop (#11) at Montrose (#10)

In a rematch of rivals from earlier in the year, New Lothrop got revenge, winning 34-7.

New Lothrop will now travel to face #5 Pewamo-Westphalia, in what will be a matchup of perennial D7 State powers. Since 2016, the D7 State Champ has only been one of these two schools, with New Lothrop winning last year and PW most recently winning the year before.

Highlights / Press Coverage

  • Mother Goose’s pick: New Lothrop. CORRECT.

Centreville (#10) at Addison (#3)

In a heavyweight D8 matchup, Addison sent the returning State Champ home, winning 24-16.

Addison will now face another heavyweight, as they are scheduled to face #1 Hudson in Week 11 (this will most certainly be a feature game for us).

Highlights / Post Game Coverage:

All in all, Mother Goose went 7-0 in Week 10, including correctly picking 2 paper upsets (East Lansing, New Lothrop).

System Study

As Week 10 was the first ever week of playoffs in which the new playoff point system was used to seed matchups, I think it’s appropriate to review how effective this system was at getting things right:

  • Games where higher seed won: 91

  • Games where lower seed won (upsets): 37

  • % of Games seeded correctly (no upsets): 91 / (91+37) = 71%

So, the new system got things right 71% of the time. This is pretty good, compared to just seeding by higher record - the team with more wins only won 65% of the time last weekend.

Here’s how this 71% compares to other tournaments. Again, the 71% seems pretty good comparatively, but not without some room for improvement:

  • CFB Playoff Semifinal Round: 64%

  • NFL Divisional Round: 67%

  • First Round of March Madness: 81%

Lastly, here’s the highest and lowest remaining seed in each division:

Division 1

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Rockford

  • Lowest Remaining: #26 Grandville

Division 2

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Warren De La Salle

  • Lowest Remaining: #27 Roseville

Division 3

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Detroit MLK

  • Lowest Remaining: #27 Parma Western

Division 4

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Chelsea

  • Lowest Remaining: #28 Three Rivers

Division 5

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central

  • Lowest Remaining: #26 Dundee

Division 6

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Lansing Catholic

  • Lowest Remaining: #23 Calumet

Division 7

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Lumen Christi

  • Lowest Remaining: #27 Union City

Division 8

  • Highest Remaining: #1 Hudson

  • Lowest Remaining: #26 Rochester Hills Lutheran NW

Survivor Island

Week 10 action gave 6 teams their first loss of the season, dropping our total number of unbeaten teams to 21:

Division 1

  • Rochester Adams

  • Grand Blanc

  • Rockford

  • Dropping Out: Bloomfield Hills (Lost to DCC, 51-7)

  • Dropping Out: Saline (Lost to Canton, 32-20)

Division 2

  • South Lyon

  • Warren De La Salle Collegiate

Division 3

  • Mount Pleasant

  • Dropping Out: Riverview (Lost to Allen Park, 28-20)

Division 4

  • Edwardsburg

  • Chelsea

  • Hudsonville Unity Christian

Division 5

  • Grand Rapids Catholic Central

  • Marine City

  • Frankenmuth

  • Berrien Springs

  • Dropping Out: Gladwin (Lost to Clare, 32-12)

  • Dropping Out: Comstock Park (Lost to West Catholic, 42-0)

Division 6

  • Millington

  • Constantine

  • Dropping Out: Jonesville (Lost to Michigan Center, 8-6)

Division 7

  • Pewamo-Westphalia

  • Detroit Central

  • Lawton

  • Traverse City St Francis

Division 8

  • Hudson

  • Ubly

Superlatives

Week 10

Upsets:

  • Largest Upset (by Record): Detroit Loyola (4-4) over Bishop Foley (8-1)

  • Largest Upset (by Playoff Points): Three Rivers (46.1) over Vicksburg (61.7)

Scoring:

  • Most Points Scored: Unity Christian vs. Forest Hills Eastern (67-0)

  • Most Total Points: Muskegon Heights vs. Holton (66-42)

  • Lowest Total Points: Olivet vs. Williamston (3-0)

Margin of Victory / OTs:

  • Largest Margin of Victory: Unity Christian vs. Forest Hills Eastern (67-0)

  • Most Overtimes: Howell vs. Hartland (35-28, 3OT)

Seeding:

  • Highest seed to lose: #3 Saline (D1), lost to #24 Canton 32-20

  • Lowest seed to win: #28 Three Rivers (D4), beat #4 Vicksburg, 9-7

Season-to-Date (only reporting teams remaining in the playoff field)

Scoring:

  • Average Points Scored (highest): 56.1 (Unity Christian)

  • Average Points Scored (lowest): 15.8 (Rochester Lutheran NW)

  • Average Points Allowed (highest): 31.8 (Muskegon Heights)

  • Average Points Allowed (lowest): 4.2 (Edwardsburg)

Margin of Victory:

  • Average Margin of Victory (highest): 51.1 (Edwardsburg)

  • Average Margin of Victory (lowest): Tie. -6.2 (Three Rivers & Livonia Franklin)

Strength of Schedule:

  • Total wins by opponents (highest): 65 (Oxford)

  • Total wins by opponents (lowest): Tie. 33 (Mount Pleasant & Detroit Central)

  • Avg. Opponent margin of victory (highest): Detroit Country Day (10.1)

  • Avg. Opponent margin of victory (lowest): Lawton (-11.6)

Week 11 Big Games

With half the playoff field now gone, Week 11 will feature 64 games across the 8 divisions. You can check out updated brackets here at the MHSAA’s site.

Last week, we limited our pre game coverage to only those matchups between top 10 teams. Given that there are 14 of these matchups happening this coming weekend, we are limiting our preview to just top 5 matchups - this week has 5 such games:

Division 3

  • #4 Mount Pleasant vs. #2 DeWitt

Division 5

  • #3 Grand Rapids West Catholic vs. #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central

Division 6

  • #5 Millington vs. #1 Lansing Catholic

Division 7

  • #2 Monroe St Mary CC vs. #1 Jackson Lumen Christi

Division 8

  • #3 Addison vs. #1 Hudson

Check back on Thursday for our preview of each game. You can check out last week’s preview here.

That’s all for Week 10 guys! Hope you enjoyed the note.

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