State Finals Viewing Guide

Hello all,

First off, Happy Thanksgiving! I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday with their families.

Second off, as promised (albeit a day late), below is Goose Dropping’s State Finals viewing guide. We hope it lets you watch the games being played tomorrow and Saturday with a little more information than normal. To tune in, you can watch all 8 games on Bally’s Detroit, or, alternatively, stream them through the MHSAA’s site.

Finally, before we jump in, make sure you subscribe below. This post is part of a weekly newsletter on Michigan High School Football; you can make sure you never miss one of our posts simply by inputting your email at the link below

Before jumping into our preview of each individual game, here’s a quick refresher of the slate on tap for this weekend:

Division 1

• #6 Belleville (12-1) vs. #5 Rochester Adams (12-0)

Division 2

• #4 Traverse City Central (11-1) vs. #1 Warren De La Salle (12-0)

Division 3

• #2 DeWitt (12-1) vs. #1 Detroit MLK (12-1)

Division 4

• #2 Unity Christian (13-0) vs. #1 Chelsea (13-0)

Division 5

• #2 Marine City (13-0) vs. #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central (13-0)

Division 6:

• #4 Michigan Collegiate (11-2) vs. #1 Lansing Catholic Central (12-1)

Division 7

• #8 Lawton (13-0) vs. #5 Pewamo-Westphalia (13-0)

Division 8

• #4 Beal City (12-1) vs. #1 Hudson (13-0)

With that out of the way, let’s jump into the stats…..

Division 1: #6 Belleville (12-1) vs. #5 Rochester Adams (12-0)

Production Metrics

• Points Scored per Game: 41.7 (Belleville) vs. 32.7 (Adams)

• Points Allowed per Game: 11.5 (Belleville) vs. 12.1 (Adams)

• Avg. Margin of Victory: 30.2 (Belleville) vs. 20.6 (Adams)

Strength of Schedule:

• Seed entering playoffs: #6 (Belleville) vs. #5 (Adams)

• # of Wins by Opponents: 78 (Belleville) vs. 71 (Adams)

• Avg. Opponent Margin of Victory: -0.7 (Belleville) vs. -0.1 (Adams)

• Best Win: 10-2 SH Stevenson (Belleville) vs. 12-0 Grand Blanc (Adams)

• Worst Loss: 8-3 Livonia Churchill (Belleville) vs. N/A (Adams)

State Finals History:

• Number of State Final Appearances: 0 (Belleville) vs. 1 (Adams)

• Last State Final Appearance: N/A (Belleville) vs. 2003 (Adams)

• Number of State Championships: 0 (Belleville) vs. 1 (Adams)

• Last State Championship: N/A (Belleville) vs. 2003 (Adams)

Opponent History:

• All Time Record: 0-0

• Last Time Out: This is the first meeting of the two opponents

Our first game is an interesting one to be sure. Both teams have minimal amount of State Final experience - there is a combined 1 State Final trip between the two programs, with that lone trip made on behalf of Rochester Adams in 2003.

This is sort of an oddity - look down this list and you will note that the next lowest combined # of trips can be found in Division 4 (3 Total). At a higher level, this peculiarity embodies the weirdness that has gone down in Division 1 on the whole this year: the top 4 seeds entering the playoffs have all been eliminated, with only our #5 and #6 seed remaining.

What’s more is that these remaining teams haven’t played particularly difficult schedules - ranked among our other finalists, Belleville & Rochester Adams have the 2nd and 3rd lowest average opponent win margin, respectively. This is not to discredit either team - both teams have won when it counted, with Rochester Adams handing Grand Blanc their lone defeat in the Semi Final round, and Belleville defeating Sterling Heights Stevenson.

And its these wins that have really cemented the resumes of both teams: both are what I would call their ‘signature’ victories: Adams’ defeat of Grand Blanc was perhaps the better of the two, as Grand Blanc themselves had just got done defeating 11-0 Rockford the week prior. Belleville’s win over SH Stevenson was nice, but I don’t put as much stock in that: Rockford had previously defeated SH Stevenson by a similar margin earlier this year.

So give the strength of schedule edge to Adams. But who wins the game based on production? That’s where the story flips: Belleville is beating their opponents by 10 more points on average than Adams. However, bear in mind that this is ‘average’ metric, and we don’t play the game in averages: said another way, when Belleville wins, they win big, and when they lose (or play a tougher opponent), they usually don’t score many points (see: 21 points against Churchill, 14 points against AA Huron, 12 points against Fordson). Under this light, Belleville seems like more of a ‘Boom or Bust’ team.

I think the bust side of this equation is more likely to occur when these two teams meet on Saturday: while Adams’ offensive production has lacked at times this year (lowest PPG of any remaining team), their defense has shown up when it mattered, holding very good Grand Blanc and West Bloomfield offenses to 3 scores or less.

Mother Goose’s Pick: Rochester Adams

• Post game Wrap-Up from Adams’ Semi Final victory

• Post game Wrap-Up from Belleville’s Semi Final victory

Division 2: #4 Traverse City Central (11-1) vs. #1 Warren De La Salle (12-0)

Production Metrics

• Points Scored per Game: 48.9 (TCC) vs. 39.7 (DLS)

• Points Allowed per Game: 13.5 (TCC) vs. 15.4 (DLS)

• Avg. Margin of Victory: 35.4 (TCC) vs. 24.3 (DLS)

Strength of Schedule:

• Seed entering playoffs: #4 (TCC) vs. #1 (DLS)

• # of Wins by Opponents: 86 (TCC) vs. 73 (DLS)

• Avg. Opponent Margin of Victory: 4.6 (TCC) vs. 3.3 (DLS)

• Best Win: 12-0 South Lyon (TCC) vs. 7-2 River Rouge (DLS)

• Worst Loss: 12-1 DeWitt (TCC) vs. N/A (DLS)

State Finals History:

• Number of State Final Appearances: 4 (TCC) vs. 6 (DLS)

• Last State Final Appearance: 1988 (TCC) vs. 2020 (DLS)

• Number of State Championships: 3 (TCC) vs. 3 (DLS)

• Last State Championship: 1988 (TCC) vs. 2018 (DLS)

Opponent History:

• All Time Record: 0-0

• Last Time Out: This is the first meeting of the two opponents

Traverse City Central has been talked about a lot on this newsletter in recent weeks, and for good reason: they are on absolute tear. With wins 28+ point wins over 10-1 Caledonia and 12-0 South Lyon, the Trojans own some of the most impressive wins of any team thus far this year. Had they not lost to DeWitt in Week 1 of this year, you might even have them pegged for the best team in the State.

This ‘tear’ is also reflected in the metrics: TCC is winning by more per game than all but 2 of our State Finalists (Unity & Lawton); TCC’s strength of schedule has been more difficult than both of these schools.

With all that said, TCC is making their first State Final appearance in recent history: while they have 3 titles under their belt, their last appearance was over 3 decades ago.

Will they be ready for the ultimate stage? Their opponent, De La Salle, certainly will be: the Pilots are no stranger to the State Finals, having been there just last year. They’ll be similarly prepared as well, having made it to the finals through a schedule slog of their own: all 8 of DLS’s regular season opponents made the playoffs in their respective state association.

But, hold DLS’s average strength of schedule aside for a second: one knock on their resume is that while it has been tough, it bears no ‘marquee’ victory like those of TCC’s: DLS’s best win is either over 7-2 River Rouge or 7-2 Detroit Catholic Central. Neither of these teams advanced past Districts.

So, under a pure strength of schedule guise, this information is telling you to favor TCC here. Taking into account each team’s production metrics, the case for TCC gets even stronger: the Trojans win by on average 11 more points per game than DLS.

Mother Goose’s pick: Traverse City Central

• Post game Wrap-Up from TCC’s Semi Final win

• Post game Wrap-Up from DLS’s Semi Final win

Division 3: #2 DeWitt (12-1) vs. #1 Detroit MLK (12-1)

Production Metrics

• Points Scored per Game: 47.2 (DeWitt) vs. 40.6 (MLK)

• Points Allowed per Game: 15.4 (DeWitt) vs. 16.7 (MLK)

• Avg. Margin of Victory: 31.9 (DeWitt) vs. 23.9 (MLK)

Strength of Schedule:

• Seed entering playoffs: #2 (DeWitt) vs. #1 (MLK)

• # of Wins by Opponents: 87 (DeWitt) vs. 78 (MLK)

• Avg. Opponent Margin of Victory: 4.7 (DeWitt) vs. 9.9 (MLK)

• Best Win: 12-1 Traverse City Central (DeWitt) vs. 11-3 Cincy Moeller (MLK)

• Worst Loss: 10-3 Portland (DeWitt) vs. 9-2 Indiana Carmel (MLK)

State Finals History:

• Number of State Final Appearances: 6 (Dewitt) vs. 7 (MLK)

• Last State Final Appearance: 2020 (DeWitt) vs. 2019 (MLK)

• Number of State Championships: 1 (DeWitt) vs. 4 (MLK)

• Last State Championship: 2020 (DeWitt) vs. 2018 (MLK)

Opponent History:

• All Time Record: 0 (DeWitt) vs. 1 (MLK)

• Last Time Out: MLK won, 34-21 in 2018 Semi Final

Would you believe that this is our only matchup where the opponents have prior history? Looking at the number of mutual state final appearances between the two programs, perhaps you would: with 13 appearances between them, this game features the most ‘State Final’ tradition of any of our 8 games this weekend.

Stepping beyond merely tradition, some might say this year’s game is for the ‘best in the state’ title: the State’s two best wins belong to these two teams, with DeWitt defeating Traverse City Central in Week 1 (47-20), and MLK defeating Cincy Moeller in Week 9 (Ohio Semi Finalist). While both teams do have a loss, both are A) somewhat explainable (DeWitt’s was to Portland, a Semi Finalist; MLK’s was to Carmel (IN), a 9-2 Indiana team) and B) way in the past: DeWitt lost in Week 2 and MLK lost in Week 1.

As for the production metrics, DeWitt is outclassing MLK, winning by on average 8 more points per game. But don’t take this at face value: MLK has faced a tougher schedule than DeWitt; the average win margin of MLK’s opponents is the highest of any State Finalist.

So how do you call this one? Both teams have the resumes; MLK’s is slightly stronger, but DeWitt has outscored their opponents by more. When it seems straight down the middle like this, you have to go with the returning champion.

Mother Goose’s pick: DeWitt

• Lansing State Journal Wrap-Up on DeWitt’s Semi Final & preview of their Title Game (also includes Lansing Catholic & Pewamo-Westphalia):

• Post game Wrap-Up from King’s Semi Final win

Division 4: #2 Unity Christian (13-0) vs. #1 Chelsea (13-0)

Production Metrics

• Points Scored per Game: 57.8 (Unity) vs. 40.8 (Chelsea)

• Points Allowed per Game: 12.7 (Unity) vs. 14.0 (Chelsea)

• Avg. Margin of Victory: 45.1 (Unity) vs. 26.8 (Chelsea)

Strength of Schedule:

• Seed entering playoffs: #2 (Unity) vs. #1 (Chelsea)

• # of Wins by Opponents: 79 (Unity) vs. 71 (Chelsea)

• Avg. Opponent Margin of Victory: 1.8 (Unity) vs. 1.6 (Chelsea)

• Best Win: 12-0 Edwardsburg (Unity) vs. 11-1 Freeland (Chelsea)

• Worst Loss: N/A

State Finals History:

• Number of State Final Appearances: 1 (Unity) vs. 2 (Chelsea)

• Last State Final Appearance: 2019 (Unity) vs. 2018 (Chelsea)

• Number of State Championships: 1 (Unity) vs. 0 (Chelsea)

• Last State Championship: 2019 (Unity) vs. N/A (Chelsea)

Opponent History:

• All Time Record: 0-0

• Last Time Out: This is the first meeting of the two opponents

We just got done telling you that the Division 3 game might decide who’s ‘best in the state’ - well, Unity Christian might have something to say about that. The Crusaders have the highest scoring offense in the State this year, and are on pace to set Michigan’s all time scoring record. Their defense is playing along as well: Unity’s closest game was against 9-2 West Catholic, where they won 40-14.

All of this has fed an ‘on the field’ win streak that stretches across 20 games and 2 years: the Crusaders have not lost a game that was actually played since their 2019 Semi Final against Grand Rapids Catholic Central.

With all of this momentum, it might seem hard how a team of this caliber could possibly be gaining additional steam, but Unity seems to be doing just that: they are fresh off their best win of the season, where they defeated an undefeated Edwardsburg, 58-8. Beyond their unblemished record, the Eddies were no slouch of an opponent: coming into the game, the Eddies owned the State’s best defense and the State’s second best offense.

Suffice to say, this does not paint a pretty picture for Unity’s opponent, Chelsea. While the Bulldogs are a very good team (they are unbeaten), all of their stats are outshined by Unity’s: they win by less, have a weaker schedule, and just barely squeaked by in their signature win over Freeland (30-27).

Where Chelsea does have the upper hand is tradition: the Bulldogs are no stranger to Ford Field, having visited previously on two separate occasions, coming away empty handed both times.

I think this trend continues - Chelsea will once again come away empty handed. The Crusaders are just too dominant.

Mother Goose’s pick: Unity Christian

• Mlive’s game preview:

• Michigan Sports Radio interview w/ Craig Tibbe, Unity Christian Head Coach

Division 5: #2 Marine City (13-0) vs. #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central (13-0)

Production Metrics

• Points Scored per Game: 43.7 (Marine City) vs. 42.8 (GRCC)

• Points Allowed per Game: 9.1 (Marine City) vs. 9.3 (GRCC)

• Avg. Margin of Victory: 34.6 (Marine City) vs. 33.5 (GRCC)

Strength of Schedule:

• Seed entering playoffs: #2 (Marine City) vs. #1 (GRCC)

• # of Wins by Opponents: 71 (Marine City) vs. 78 (GRCC)

• Avg. Opponent Margin of Victory: 0.4 (Marine City) vs. 2.9 (GRCC)

• Best Win: 10-2 Portland (Marine City) vs. 12-0 Frankenmuth (GRCC)

• Worst Loss: N/A

State Finals History:

• Number of State Final Appearances: 3 (Marine City) vs. 8 (GRCC)

• Last State Final Appearance: 2013 (Marine City) vs. 2020 (GRCC)

• Number of State Championships: 2 (Marine City) vs. 6 (GRCC)

• Last State Championship: 2013 (Marine City) vs. 2020 (GRCC)

Opponent History:

• All Time Record: 0-0

• Last Time Out: This is the first meeting of the two opponents

Our Division 5 matchup is almost a carbon copy of the Division 4 matchup: a dominant, West Side, private school with a win streak stretching back several years will put it on the line against an undefeated, East Side, public school.

See the similarities? However, before you write this off as GRCC win, take a look at the production metrics: Marine City’s average margin of victory has been a point higher than GRCC’s this year.

So, maybe the Mariners have a shot: you have to credit their metrics, and their tradition is also worth something: Marine City is no stranger to Ford Field, having visited before on 3 separate occasions. Marine City also owns a victory over Portland, who beat DeWitt, who we just got done saying was perhaps the best team in the State.

Still, I can’t see taking Marine City taking this game: similar to D4, we’ve got the favorite taking the cake here. My lone take is that Marine City will lose by less than Chelsea loses by.

Mother Goose’s pick: Grand Rapids Catholic Central

• Post game Wrap-Up from Marine City’s Semi Final win

• Post game Wrap-Up from GRCC’s Semi Final win

Division 6: #4 Michigan Collegiate (11-2) vs. #1 Lansing Catholic Central (12-1)

Production Metrics

• Points Scored per Game: 33.3 (Collegiate) vs. 32.6 (LCC)

• Points Allowed per Game: 15.0 (Collegiate) vs. 13.8 (LCC)

• Avg. Margin of Victory: 18.3 (Collegiate) vs. 18.8 (LCC)

Strength of Schedule:

• Seed entering playoffs: #4 (Collegiate) vs. #1 (LCC)

• # of Wins by Opponents: 75 (Collegiate) vs. 82 (LCC)

• Avg. Opponent Margin of Victory: 2.9 (Collegiate) vs. 6.5 (LCC)

• Best Win: 11-1 Michigan Center (Collegiate) vs. 10-0 Millington (LCC)

• Worst Loss: 7-3 Milan (Collegiate) vs. 13-0 Pewamo-Westphalia (LCC)

State Finals History:

• Number of State Final Appearances: 0 (Collegiate) vs. 4 (LCC)

• Last State Final Appearance: N/A (Collegiate) vs. 2019 (LCC)

• Number of State Championships: 0 (Collegiate) vs. 2 (LCC)

• Last State Championship: N/A (Collegiate) vs. 2019 (LCC)

Opponent History:

• All Time Record: 0-0

• Last Time Out: This is the first meeting of the two opponents

If I were to rank our state final matchups from ‘most interesting’ to ‘least interesting’, this one would certainly be in the top half, and might even be the favorite. I say this because there’s a couple of different threads to follow here:

• LCC is a Private School; Michigan Collegiate is a Public School

• LCC has State Final tradition; Michigan Collegiate has none

• Michigan Collegiate is a Charter School (are they the first Charter State Finalist ever?)

Outside of these contextual data points, the most convincing story is that of the team’s results on the field: of all State Finalists, Lansing Catholic and Michigan Collegiate are the two teams with the lowest average margin of victory.

Take all of this, stir it in a pot, and it makes for a game worth watching. Who will win? Sadly, we think this is where the story starts to get vanilla: similar to D4 & D5, we think the private school prevails once again. However, in a manner similar to our D5 prediction, we will make one additional prediction: Lansing Catholic will win by even less than GRCC wins by.

Mother Gooses’s pick: Lansing Catholic Central

• Mlive Game Preview:

Division 7: #8 Lawton (13-0) vs. #5 Pewamo-Westphalia (13-0)

Production Metrics

• Points Scored per Game: 49.7 (Lawton) vs. 37.9 (P-W)

• Points Allowed per Game: 10.5 (Lawton) vs. 6.8 (P-W)

• Avg. Margin of Victory: 39.2 (Lawton) vs. 31.1 (P-W)

Strength of Schedule:

• Seed entering playoffs: #8 (Lawton) vs. #5 (P-W)

• # of Wins by Opponents: 65 (Lawton) vs. 83 (P-W)

• Avg. Opponent Margin of Victory: -6.7 (Lawton) vs. 5.5 (P-W)

• Best Win: 11-1 Lumen Christi (Lawton) vs. 13-0 Lansing Catholic (P-W)

• Worst Loss: N/A

State Finals History:

• Number of State Final Appearances: 0 (Lawton) vs. 5 (P-W)

• Last State Final Appearance: N/A (Lawton) vs. 2019 (P-W)

• Number of State Championships: 0 (Lawton) vs. 3 (P-W)

• Last State Championship: N/A (Lawton) vs. 2019 (P-W)

Opponent History:

• All Time Record: 0-0

• Last Time Out: This is the first meeting of the two opponents

The Division 7 matchup is the one I’m most unsure about: at face value, you have what might seem like a blow out: the young upstart (Lawton) makes their first State Final appearance on the backs of steamrolling through the weakest schedule of any finalist; their opponent will be a battle-tested Ford Field vet (Pewamo-Westphalia) making their 6th appearance after defeating the likes of undefeated Traverse City St Francis and fellow finalist Lansing Catholic.

But, before you come to this conclusion, look closer: while Lawton certainly played an easy schedule early in the year, they’ve been picking up steam of late, with a win over a very good Lumen Christi team last week. The Blue Devils also plowed through a good Muskegon Catholic team in the Regional Final the week earlier.

So maybe Lawton will once again rise to the occasion? I think the matchup to watch here is the Lawton Offense vs. the P-W defense: behind only Unity Christian, Lawton’s offense scores the second most points of any State Finalist, and P-W’s defense gives up the least amount of points of any State Finalist.

For a hint at which side might prevail, take a look at P-W’s week 9 result: in a game against the D6 state finalist Lansing Catholic, they held them to just one score (7 points).

I think the P-W defense steps up again.

Mother Goose’s Pick: Pewamo-Westphalia

• Mlive Game Preview:

Division 8: #4 Beal City (12-1) vs. #1 Hudson (13-0)

Production Metrics

• Points Scored per Game: 35.5 (Beal City) vs. 32.5 (Hudson)

• Points Allowed per Game: 8.5 (Beal City) vs. 7.1 (Hudson)

• Avg. Margin of Victory: 27.0 (Beal City) vs. 24.4 (Hudson)

Strength of Schedule:

• Seed entering playoffs: #4 (Beal City) vs. #1 (Hudson)

• # of Wins by Opponents: 80 (Beal City) vs. 78 (Hudson)

• Avg. Opponent Margin of Victory: 6.2 (Beal City) vs. 4.3 (Hudson)

• Best Win: 12-0 Ubly (Beal City) vs. 11-1 Whiteford (Hudson)

• Worst Loss: 7-4 Ravenna (Beal City) vs. N/A

State Finals History:

• Number of State Final Appearances: 8 (Beal City) vs. 4 (Hudson)

• Last State Final Appearance: 2019 (Beal City) vs. 2010 (Hudson)

• Number of State Championships: 2 (Beal City) vs. 1 (Hudson)

• Last State Championship: 2009 (Beal City) vs. 2010 (Hudson)

Opponent History:

• All Time Record: 0-0

• Last Time Out: This is the first meeting of the two opponents

Before we jump into the picks, let me caveat my analysis with a disclaimer: Division 8 games have been the bane of this newsletter’s picks thus far this year.

Most of this difficulty has come from picking against one of our finalists, Hudson: we picked them to lose last week against Whiteford; we also had them losing in the District final against a good Addison squad.

That said, the damages are not limited to Hudson: we also picked against fellow State Finalist Beal City when we called for Ubly to win last week. So, once again, take this with a grain of salt.

With that out of the way, let’s examine the facts: Beal City, while the underdog by seed, is both winning by more (+2.5 margin of victory) and playing tougher competition (higher opponent win margin, higher opponent win count).

But, the Aggies do have a loss: way back in Week 1, they dropped a game they should not have, losing by 1 point to a 7-4 Ravenna team.

Hudson on the other hand has no blemishes: they are undefeated and have consistently risen to the occasion, coming back from half time deficits in their two best victories this year (Addison & Whiteford).

So, once again we’re at a crossroads: do we go with the metrics? Or do we defect and go with the team that’s proven us wrong all along?

Call us ignorant (but certainly not hypocrites): we’ve got the Aggies here.

Mother Goose’s pick: Beal City

• MI Prep Zone Game Preview:

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