Playoff Preview Guide

Hi all,

As promised last week, below is our Playoff Preview Guide (a day late on this - apologies!).

The basic sections of our guide breakout like this:

• Overview of how the new qualification system played out (What’s with this new system?)

• Analysis of the teams who qualified in each division (Divisional superlatives)

• Analysis of how the MHSAA seeded each division’s bracket (Bracket Analysis)

• Overview of this week’s big games (Week 10 Big Games)

As always, feel free to drop us a comment below if you see something you’d like included. We will be dropping our preview of Week 10’s big games on Thursday this week, so subscribe below to make sure you don’t miss out on that.

What’s with this new system?

If you’ve been paying attention to Michigan HS football the last few weeks, then surely you’ve heard about this year’s new playoff qualification system - as opposed to the previous system, under which teams qualified for the playoffs once reaching 6 wins, this system rewards teams who have played tougher schedules and don’t have 6 wins because of it.

Given this change, for the first time ever, teams with losing records have qualified for the playoffs. In total, there are 19 of these teams:

• Livonia Franklin (D2)

• Detroit U-D Jesuit (D2)

• Saginaw Heritage (D2)

• Auburn Hills Avondale (D3)

• Mattawan (D3)

• Lowell (D3)

• South Lyon East (D3)

• Fruitport (D4)

• Grant (D5)

• Flint Powers Catholic (D5)

• Richmond (D5)

• Maple City Glen Lake (D6)

• Gladstone (D6)

• North Muskegon (D7)

• Niles Brandywine (D7)

• Vassar (D8)

• Decatur (D8)

• White Cloud (D8)

• Flint Beecher (D8)

South Lyon East and Flint Powers Catholic are the worst records of the bunch, with both making the playoffs at 3-6.

Now, the casual observer may be asking: 3-6 Flint Powers Catholic gets to make the D5 playoffs, while 6-3 Flint Hamady misses? How is that fair?

The simple response to that question is that that question itself is improper: the new qualification system’s assessment of ‘fairness’ is no longer the record of a team.

Instead, the new gauge of ‘fairness’ tries to normalize teams’ records across different strength of schedules, and select who is most deserving according to their relative performances.

And so you get results like this. Taking a look at Flint Hamady’s schedule, it’s clear what they are being punished for: 4 of their 6 wins have come over D7 & D8 schools; these schools own a combined record of 13-17 (~3.2 average wins).

Flint Powers, on the other hand, is being rewarded for a very tough schedule: they’ve had all of their losses come against teams from Divisions 3 & higher, with the records there combining to 41-13 (~6.8 average wins). Had Flint Hamady played this same schedule, its conceivable the results would have been at most exactly the same, or perhaps worse.

Fortunately for us viewers, the most convincing stat here is the two teams’ head to head matchup: Flint Powers beat Hamady 35-7 in Week 2. This alone shows the power of strength of schedule: you can have a team beat another team convincingly, yet have the winner go 3-6 and the loser go 6-3. Under the previous system, Flint Powers would have had nothing to show for this: they would be at home watching a team they beat by 28 play their first round game.

This dynamic plays out across the divisions: in D3, 3-6 South Lyon East is in, while 5-4 Melvindale is out. While its not clear who would win in a head to head matchup, each team’s body of work is not comparable: South Lyon East has 6 losses against teams with an average record of 6-3; Melvindale has 4 losses against teams with an average record of 4-5, including losses to 1-8 Lincoln Park and 2-7 Flat Rock.

In summary, the new qualification system is attempting a noble cause: let’s get the best 32 teams in the field, regardless of record. While the systems’ approach to solving this may be imperfect (don’t take our analysis here as 100% affirmation of the system - there are some pitfalls which we will cover in future posts), it is, at least in the case of Flint Powers & Flint Hamady, improved over the previous system: the better of the two teams got in here.

Divisional Superlatives

There are 32 teams qualified for the playoffs in each of Michigan’s 8 divisions. This presents a difficult task: at 256 teams, teasing out who you should be paying attention to requires some effort.

To that end, we’ve put together the following superlatives by division. These will hopefully allow you to focus your attention a bit more on the who’s who in each of the 8 championship races.

Division 1

• Best Team (by Playoff Points): Rockford

• Worst Team (by Playoff Points): Fraser

• Best Offense: Belleville (48.3 points per game)

• Worst Offense: Troy (18.8 points per game)

• Best Defense: Troy (8.4 points per game)

• Worst Defense: Oxford (28.4 points per game)

• Best Avg. Margin of Victory: Belleville (36.6)

• Worst Avg. Margin of Victory: Oxford (0.4)

• Toughest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Oxford (32.7)

• Easiest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Fraser (17.6)

• Undefeated Teams: Rockford (#1), Saline (#2), Grand Blanc (#4), Rochester Adams (#5), Bloomfield Hills (#8)

• Losing Record Teams: None

Division 2

• Best Team (by Playoff Points): Warren De La Salle

• Worst Team (by Playoff Points): Swartz Creek

• Best Offense: Muskegon Mona Shores (48.6)

• Worst Offense: Detroit U-D Jesuit (18.4)

• Best Defense: South Lyon (10.6)

• Worst Defense: Saginaw Heritage (34.9)

• Best Avg. Margin of Victory: Traverse City Central (35.2)

• Worst Avg. Margin of Victory: Livonia Franklin (-9.6)

• Toughest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Detroit U-D Jesuit (29.11)

• Easiest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Bay City Western (17.11)

• Undefeated Teams: Warren De La Salle (#1), South Lyon (#2)

• Losing Record Teams: Livonia Franklin (#25), Saginaw Heritage (#28), Detroit U-D Jesuit (#29)

Division 3

• Best Team (by Playoff Points): Detroit MLK

• Worst Team (by Playoff Points): Ionia

• Best Offense: Warren Fitzgerald (50.0)

• Worst Offense: Mattawan (16.4)

• Best Defense: Haslett (10.7)

• Worst Defense: Zeeland East (36.3)

• Best Avg. Margin of Victory: DeWitt (32.9)

• Worst Avg. Margin of Victory: Lowell (-5.9)

• Toughest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Brother Rice (28.3)

• Easiest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Richland Gull Lake (15.0)

• Undefeated Teams: Mount Pleasant (#4), Riverview (#7)

• Losing Record Teams: Lowell (#26), Auburn Hills Avondale (#28), Mattawan (#29)

Division 4

• Best Team (by Playoff Points): Chelsea

• Worst Team (by Playoff Points): Fruitport

• Best Offense: Edwardsburg (55.0)

• Worst Offense: Plainwell (19.4)

• Best Defense: Edwardsburg (4.7)

• Worst Defense: Charlotte (32.0)

• Best Avg. Margin of Victory: Edwardsburg (50.3)

• Worst Avg. Margin of Victory: Three Rivers (-7.3)

• Toughest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Grand Rapids Christian (24.7)

• Easiest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Livonia Clarenceville (15.0)

• Undefeated Teams: Chelsea (#1), Unity Christian (#2), Edwardsburg (#3)

• Losing Record Teams: Fruitport (#32)

Division 5

• Best Team (by Playoff Points): Grand Rapids Catholic Central

• Worst Team (by Playoff Points): Parchment

• Best Offense: Gladwin (53.0)

• Worst Offense: Grant (13.0)

• Best Defense: Gladwin (7.4)

• Worst Defense: Parchment (33.7)

• Best Avg. Margin of Victory: Gladwin (45.6)

• Worst Avg. Margin of Victory: Flint Powers Catholic (-16.1)

• Toughest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Flint Powers Catholic (26.4)

• Easiest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Berrien Springs (12.8)

• Undefeated Teams: GRCC (#1), Marine City (#2), Frankenmuth (#4), Comstock Park (#5), Berrien Springs (#8), Gladwin (#9)

• Losing Record Teams: Flint Powers Catholic (#20), Richmond (#29), Grant (#30)

Division 6

• Best Team (by Playoff Points): Lansing Catholic

• Worst Team (by Playoff Points): Erie Mason

• Best Offense: Constantine (46.0)

• Worst Offense: Detroit Pershing (17.7)

• Best Defense: Jonesville (7.9)

• Worst Defense: Dearborn Heights Robichaud (32.2)

• Best Avg. Margin of Victory: Jonesville (35.9)

• Worst Avg. Margin of Victory: Dearborn Heights Robichaud (-8.1)

• Toughest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Warren Michigan Collegiate (20.5)

• Easiest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Michigan Center (12.3)

• Undefeated Teams: Constantine (#3), Millington (#5), Jonesville (#11)

• Losing Record Teams: Gladstone (#26), Maple City Glen Lake (#31)

Division 7

• Best Team (by Playoff Points): Jackson Lumen Christi

• Worst Team (by Playoff Points): East Jordan

• Best Offense: Lawton (55.2)

• Worst Offense: East Jordan (19.8)

• Best Defense: Pewamo-Westphalia (4.3)

• Worst Defense: Niles Brandywine (34.6)

• Best Avg. Margin of Victory: Lawton (46.1)

• Worst Avg. Margin of Victory: Niles Brandywine (-10.1)

• Toughest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Monroe St Mary Catholic Central (20.7)

• Easiest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Delton Kellogg (9.6)

• Undefeated Teams: Traverse City St Francis (#3), Detroit Central (#4), Pewamo-Westphalia (#5), Lawton (#8)

• Losing Record Teams: North Muskegon (#24), Niles Brandywine (#28)

Division 8

• Best Team (by Playoff Points): Hudson

• Worst Team (by Playoff Points): White Cloud

• Best Offense: Ottawa Lake Whiteford (52.4)

• Worst Offense: Rochester Hills Lutheran NW (16.1)

• Best Defense: Hudson (6.9)

• Worst Defense: White Cloud (32.1)

• Best Avg. Margin of Victory: Ubly (31.9)

• Worst Avg. Margin of Victory: White Cloud (-12.6)

• Toughest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Flint Beecher (17.4)

• Easiest Schedule (by Bonus Points): Bark River-Harris (8.7)

• Undefeated Teams: Hudson (#1), Ubly (#5)

• Losing Record Teams: Flint Beecher (#13), Decatur (#29), Vassar (#31), White Cloud (#32)

Bracket Analysis

In seeding each Division’s bracket, the MHSAA does not resort entirely to how teams finished, playoff point wise. Instead, teams are first grouped geographically with their 3 nearest neighbors into ‘districts’ of 4.

Under this approach, it is quite possible that teams with high seeds play each other first round, as two teams with quite high playoff point scores may be geographically near each other. In an extreme example, if playoff point finishers #1, #2, #3, and #4 all found themselves in the same district, the opening round games for that district would be #1 vs #4 and #2 vs #3 - two of the division’s top four ‘best’ teams would go home in the opening round.

So, with this in mind, it’s useful to see how ‘balanced’ the brackets really are - each year, there will always be strong districts where really high seeds are scheduled to play in round 1 or 2. On the contrary, there will always be a weak district or two where an otherwise weak team will win their first two games and make the regional finals.

To show where districts are strong or weak, we’ve computed the average playoff point rank (i.e. seed) of the teams in each one (to see the full brackets, click on this link):

Division 1 (full bracket here)

Region 1, District 1 is the weakest District:

• Rockford (#1)

• Grandville (#26)

• Traverse City West (#27)

• Grand Ledge (#28)

Region 4, District 1 is the toughest District:

• Saline (#2)

• Belleville (#6)

• AA Huron (#10)

• Canton (#24)

Division 2 (full bracket here)

Region 2, District 1 is the weakest District:

• Portage Central (#11)

• Battle Creek Lakeview (#20)

• Dexter (#21)

• Jackson (#30)

Region 1, District 2 is the toughest District:

• Caledonia (#3)

• GR Forest Hills Central (#5)

• Muskegon Mona Shores (#16)

• Byron Center (#17)

Division 3 (full bracket here)

Region 2, District 2 is the weakest District:

• BC Harper Creek (#21)

• Parma Western (#27)

• Mattawan (#29)

• Richland Gull Lake (#31)

Region 4, District 2 is the toughest District:

• Gibraltar Carlson (#3)

• Allen Park (#6)

• Riverview (#7)

• Trenton (#16)

Division 4 (full bracket here)

Region 1, District 1 is the weakest District:

• Cadillac (#11)

• Sparta (#21)

• Whitehall (#27)

• Fruitport (#32)

Region 3, District 1 is the toughest District:

• Lake Fenton (#5)

• Freeland (#9)

• Goodrich (#12)

• Ortonville Brandon (#22)

Division 5 (full bracket here)

Region 4, District 1 is the weakest District:

• Armada (#13)

• Flint Powers Catholic (#20)

• Corunna (#23)

• Richmond (#29)

Region 2, District 2 is the toughest District:

• GR Catholic Central (#1)

• GR West Catholic (#3)

• Comstock Park (#5)

• Belding (#19)

Division 6 (full bracket here)

Region 1, District 1 is the weakest District:

• Negaunee (#15)

• Menominee (#18)

• Calumet (#23)

• Gladstone (#26)

Region 4, District 1 is the toughest District:

• Warren Michigan Collegiate (#4)

• Clawson (#9)

• Almont (#12)

• Clinton Twp. Clintondale (#16)

Division 7 (full bracket here)

Region 3, District 2 is the weakest District:

• Lawton (#8)

• Union City (#27)

• Niles Brandywine (#28)

• Homer (#30)

Region 2, District 1 is the toughest District:

• Pewamo-Westphalia (#5)

• Montrose (#10)

• New Lothrop (#10)

• Ithaca (#15)

Division 8 (full bracket here)

Region 1, District 2 is the weakest District:

• Carson City Crystal (#6)

• Muskegon Heights (#20)

• Holton (#30)

• White Cloud (#32)

Region 3, District 2 is the toughest District:

• Hudson (#1)

• Addison (#3)

• Centreville (#10)

• Reading (#14)

Week 10 Big Games

At this point in the Playoff Preview, you’ve now been armed with two sets of knowledge:

1. An overview of the field for each division, with knowledge of which teams lead in various categories

2. An understanding of where each division’s bracket is strong or weak

The only item that remains is where exactly you should focus your attention in Week 10. As you might have guessed from our bracket analysis, there are some large matchups in this round - 14 top 10 teams will play each other.

We will have a preview of each later this week, but in the meantime, see below for an outline of who’s playing in these games:

Division 1

• Belleville (#6) vs. Ann Arbor Huron (#10)

• Bloomfield Hills (#8) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (#9)

Division 2

• Milford (#9) vs. East Lansing (#9)

Division 3

• Allen Park (#6) vs. Riverview (#7)

Division 5

• GR West Catholic (#3) vs. Comstock Park (#5)

Division 7

• Montrose (#10) vs. New Lothrop (#11)

Division 8

• Addison (#3) vs. Centreville (#10)

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Lastly, we will be releasing our preview for each of the above games later this week on Thursday - make sure to subscribe below so that you don’t miss out!