MHSAA Week 8 Preview

Small snippets & factoids to get you ready for Week 8 action

October 14, 2021

Hi all,

Given the positive feedback from our first-ever week preview note last week, I thought I’d follow up with a viewing guide for Week 8.

Within, you’ll find sections devoted to the following:

  • An in-depth review of the 5 biggest games this week (The Biggest Games)

  • Playoff Wizard picks for 7 other big games this week (Other Big Games)

  • Games between teams within 6 spots of being in/out of the playoffs (Life on the Bubble)

Give it a read, and let us know what you think. If there’s a section you’d like to see added to the note, drop us a comment below:

The Biggest Games

Normally this section would be devoted to only the games taking place between undefeated teams this week, but sadly, as of this writing, there are 0 undefeated matchups in the State for Week 8.

With that said, we’re moving the goalpost for what qualifies as this week’s biggest games ….. we’re previewing every game where there’s only 1 loss between the two opponents involved:

  • Grand Blanc (7-0) vs. Lapeer (6-1)

  • Troy (7-0) vs. Berkley (6-1)

  • Warren De La Salle (6-0) vs. Harper Woods (6-1)

  • Mount Pleasant (7-0) vs. Bay City Western (6-1)

  • Grand Rapids Catholic Central (7-0) vs. Cedar Springs (6-1)

As you’ll note, there’s big game action taking place in each corner of the State, and across (most) of the divisions (no D6-8 teams here).

With that background in mind, let’s jump into the stats….

Lapeer at Grand Blanc

  • Strength of Schedule (Total # of Wins by Opponent’s Played): 19 (L) vs. 24 (GB) Advantage: Grand Blanc

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent’s Average Margin of Victory): -6.7 (L) vs. -0.5 (GB) Advantage: Grand Blanc

  • Strength of Schedule (MHSAA Playoff Points): 58.1 (L) vs. 73.6 (GB) Advantage: Grand Blanc

  • Offensive Production (Avg Pts Scored): 45.7 (L) vs. 38.9 (GB) Advantage: Lapeer

  • Defensive Production (Avg Pts Allowed): 23.6 (L) vs. 16.9 (GB) Advantage: Grand Blanc

  • Playoff Wizard User Prediction (% of Playoff Wizard Submissions w/ Respective Team Winning): 46.2% (L) vs. 53.8% (GB) Advantage: Grand Blanc

Grand Blanc enters the game as not only one of many peoples’ top teams in D1, but also overall. This is given a strong resume (4 wins over winning record teams), highlighted by a week 2 OT victory over Forest Hills Central.

Lapeer’s resume on the other hand has not been so convincing: their lone loss to GRCC in week 1 is legit (top team in D5), but they own only 1 win over a winning record team (4-3 Midland Dow).

This difference in strength of schedule shows up in the numbers, with Grand Blanc taking the cake in every category except offensive production - you have to think that the difference here is largely due to difference in caliber of teams played.

This would point you towards favoring Grand Blanc in this one - the Playoff Wizard users agree, but, not by a wide margin - this is actually the closest game to a pick’em of our 5 highlight gamest this week.

Troy at Berkley

  • Strength of Schedule (Total # of Wins by Opponent’s Played): 13 (T) vs. 24 (B) Advantage: Berkley

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent’s Average Margin of Victory): -10.0 (T) vs. 5.2 (B) Advantage: Berkley

  • Strength of Schedule (MHSAA Playoff Points): 66.4 (T) vs. 64.9 (B) Advantage: Troy

  • Offensive Production (Avg Pts Scored): 21.7 (T) vs. 29.5 (B) Advantage: Berkley

  • Defensive Production (Avg Pts Allowed): 6.5 (T) vs. 16.8 (B) Advantage: Troy

  • Playoff Wizard User Prediction (% of Playoff Wizard Submissions w/ Respective Team Winning): 15.8% (T) vs. 84.2% (B) Advantage: Berkley

The Troy Colts are having a dream season, off to a 7-0 start for the first time since 1998. This is partially due to their strength of schedule - just one of Troy’s opponents have had winning records this year (Troy Athens).

Berkley, on the other hand, is a bit more battle-tested. Their loan loss is to Bloomfield Hills (also undefeated), and they played spoiler last week to previously undefeated Livonia Clarenceville.

The Playoff Wizard users seem to be weighting Berkley’s strength of schedule pretty heavily in how their calling this one: nearly 85% are favoring Berkley, despite Troy owning the better record.

As added stakes to this game, with a win this week, Troy will face a likely still undefeated Bloomfield Hills in Week 9, setting up a rare 8-0 vs 8-0 matchup for the OAA-B title.

Harper Woods vs. Warren De La Salle (@ Wayne State)

  • Strength of Schedule (Total # of Wins by Opponent’s Played): 24 (HW) vs. 26 (DLS) Advantage: De La Salle

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent’s Average Margin of Victory): 6.6 (HW) vs. 6.2 (DLS) Advantage: Harper Woods

  • Strength of Schedule (MHSAA Playoff Points): 59.1 (HW) vs. 74.5 (DLS) Advantage: De La Salle

  • Offensive Production (Avg Pts Scored): 38.5 (HW) vs. 34.5 (DLS) Advantage: Harper Woods

  • Defensive Production (Avg Pts Allowed): 24.3 (HW) vs. 16.2 (DLS) Advantage: De La Salle

  • Playoff Wizard User Prediction (% of Playoff Wizard Submissions w/ Respective Team Winning): 11.8% (HW) vs. 88.2% (DLS) Advantage: De La Salle

You have to give De La Salle credit: they have played what may be the State’s most competitive schedule, with their worst opponent (UD Jesuit) still harboring a 3-4 record. And despite this schedule, they’re still undefeated, with an impressive 6-0 record to show for it.

Harper Woods’s resume is no slouch either: they have played only one losing record team (not counting their forfeit from Hamtramck), and outside of a loss to OLSM in 3, they’ve beat everyone in their path.

As for how the Playoff Wizard users are calling it, its fairly lopsided, with only a handful of pickers projecting a Harper Woods win. They may be weighting towards the teams’ only common opponent, OLSM, who DLS defeated 49-25 2 weeks after Harper Woods lost to them 14-28.

Mount Pleasant at Bay City Western

  • Strength of Schedule (Total # of Wins by Opponent’s Played): 11 (MP) vs. 15 (BCW) Advantage: Bay City Western

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent’s Average Margin of Victory): -13.9 (MP) vs. -16.1 (BCW) Advantage: Mount Pleasant

  • Strength of Schedule (MHSAA Playoff Points): 63.1 (MP) vs. 53.7 (BCW) Advantage: Mount Pleasant

  • Offensive Production (Avg Pts Scored): 34.3 (MP) vs. 51.6 (BCW) Advantage: Bay City Western

  • Defensive Production (Avg Pts Allowed): 12.6 (MP) vs. 20.4 (BCW) Advantage: Mount Pleasant

  • Playoff Wizard User Prediction (% of Playoff Wizard Submissions w/ Respective Team Winning): 22.2% (MP) vs. 77.8% (BCW) Advantage: Bay City Western

This is an interesting one, with very similar dynamics to the Troy/Berkley matchup noted above. Mount Pleasant is the favorite by record, but comes in with what is actually the lowest opponent win count of any team in the state (11), having beaten only one team with a winning record (Midland Dow).

Bay City Western’s resume is actually only slightly better - they have played only 2 teams with winning records, with one of those registering as a loss (Midland Dow).

These facts would point you towards a Mount Pleasant win - after all, they beat Dow by 23 while Bay City Western lost by 1. However, the Playoff Wizard users seem to think differently - there is quite a lopsided bet on BCW out there, with 77.8% of users favoring them tomorrow night.

Grand Rapids Catholic Central at Cedar Springs

  • Strength of Schedule (Total # of Wins by Opponent’s Played): 23 (GRCC) vs. 19 (CR) Advantage: Grand Rapids Catholic Central

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent’s Average Margin of Victory): -2.5 (GRCC) vs. -10.5 (CR) Advantage: Grand Rapids Catholic Central

  • Strength of Schedule (MHSAA Playoff Points): 64.1 (GRCC) vs. 54.3 (CR) Advantage: Grand Rapids Catholic Central

  • Offensive Production (Avg Pts Scored): 44.9 (GRCC) vs. 46.0 (CR) Advantage: Cedar Springs

  • Defensive Production (Avg Pts Allowed): 8.9 (GRCC) vs. 20.1 (CR) Advantage: Grand Rapids Catholic Central

  • Playoff Wizard User Prediction (% of Playoff Wizard Submissions w/ Respective Team Winning): 57.9% (GRCC) vs. 42.1% (CR) Advantage: Grand Rapids Catholic Central

In a game that will crown (at least partially) the champion of the OK Gold, GRCC will put a now 30 game win streak on the line. They own nearly all of the statistical matchups in this contest, playing both a tougher schedule and limiting their opponents to fewer points.

It remains to be seen how much GRCC will be tested here: while Cedar Springs has only 1 loss (Rockford), they have 0 wins over teams with winning records.

Playoff Wizard users tend to agree with the stats here, picking GRCC. But it’s fairly close - with only 57.9% of picks towards GRCC, this is our second closest picked game of the week.

Other Big Games

Outside of our 5 highlight games, there are 7 games between teams with just one loss each:

  • Romeo vs. Port Huron Northern

  • Forest Hills Central vs. Byron Center

  • Croswell - Lexington vs. Armada

  • Whitehall vs. Montague

  • Spring Lake vs. Grand Rapids West Catholic

  • Charlevoix vs. Mancelona

  • Centreville vs. Muskegon Catholic Central

Here’s a quick rundown on how Playoff Wizard users are picking each game:

Byron Center & Armada appear here after losing undefeated status last week in what were the state’s 2 largest upsets (see Week 7 Wrap-Up). Additionally, Port Huron Northern continues their big game streak, having just been featured here last week in what ended up being a loss to their crosstown rival Port Huron.

Life on the Bubble

This is a new section this week- we are highlighting the games between ‘bubble’ teams, which are games where both teams currently sit within 6 spots of being in (or out) of the playoffs.

While we are still 2 weeks out, an easy way to think about these games is that they are very close to playoff elimination games - it will be difficult (but not impossible) for any of the teams below to make the playoffs with a loss tomorrow night.

  • D1: Hudsonville (#27 in playoff points1) vs. Grandville (#29 in playoff points)

  • D2/3: Dearborn Heights Crestwood (#27) vs. Garden City (#37)

  • D4: Allendale (#32) vs. Fruitport (#27)

  • D4/5: New Boston Huron (#31) vs. Flat Rock (#31)

  • D5: Hazel Park (#38) vs. SCS South Lake (#35)

  • D5/8: Parchment (#32) vs. Decatur (#27)

  • D7: Burton Bentley (#31) vs. Rochester Hills Lutheran NW (#33)

  • D7/8: East Jordan (#34) vs. Harbor Springs (#38)

  • D8: Vassar (#37) vs. Unionville-Sebewaing (#38)

Should be a fun week all around. Stay tuned Sunday for our Week 8 Wrap-Up.

Subscribe below to make sure you don’t miss it:

Missed Week 7’s Wrap-Up? You can find that here

Lastly, if you enjoyed this post, will you please share it with your friends?

We greatly appreciate your support!