MHSAA Week 7 Preview

Hi all,

Ahead of Week 7 action today & tomorrow, I thought I’d release some fun facts to help guide the viewing.

The Biggest Games

There are 250+ HS Football Games taking place in the State of Michigan this week, but only 2 are taking place between undefeated teams.

• Caledonia (6-0) at Rockford (6-0)

• Grand Rapids West Catholic (6-0) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (6-0)

As luck would have it, both games are taking placing on the state’s west side, and both will put the winners in pull position to win their respective conferences. All 4 teams involved have a legacy of their own, with each having won at least one state title in the last 20 years. Unity Christian was the most recent winner, taking home the D5 crown in 2018.

With that background in mind, let’s jump into the stats….

Caledonia at Rockford

• Strength of Schedule (Total # of Wins by Opponent’s Played): 18 (R) vs. 13 (C) Advantage: Rockford

• Strength of Schedule (Opponent’s Average Margin of Victory): 3.7 Pts (R) vs. -6.7 (C) Advantage: Rockford

• Strength of Schedule (MHSAA Playoff Points): 75.5 (R) vs 71.0 (C) Advantage: Rockford

• Offensive Production (Avg Pts Scored): 42.2 (R) vs 37.0 (C) Advantage: Rockford

• Defensive Production (Avg Pts Allowed): 19.2 (R) vs 12.0 (C) Advantage: Caledonia

• Playoff Wizard User Prediction (% of Playoff Wizard Submissions w/ Respective Team Winning): 82.1% (R) vs. 17.9% (C) Advantage: Rockford

In all, 5 of 6 criteria point point towards Rockford taking it, and the Playoff Wizard users agree (by quite a large margin). Caledonia’s one winner, their defense, may be advantaged due to their weaker schedule thus far.

Grand Rapids West Catholic at Hudsonville Unity Christian

• Strength of Schedule (Total # of Wins by Opponent’s Played): 17 (UC) vs 20 (WC) Advantage: West Catholic

• Strength of Schedule (Opponent’s Average Margin of Victory): -6.0 (UC) vs. -0.9 (WC) Advantage: West Catholic

• Strength of Schedule (MHSAA Playoff Points): 57.8 (UC) vs 58.3 (WC) Advantage: West Catholic

• Offensive Production (Avg Pts Scored): 55.0 (UC) vs. 41.5 (WC) Advantage: Unity Christian

• Defensive Production (Avg Pts Allowed): 13.3 (UC) vs. 13.5 (WC) Advantage: Unity Christian

• Playoff Wizard User Prediction (% of Playoff Wizard Submissions w/ Respective Team Winning): 84.4% (UC) vs. 15.6% (WC) Advantage: West Catholic

The Playoff Wizard users are HEAVILY favoring Unity Christian, but the criteria themselves are split down the middle 3-3, with West Catholic taking all of the strength of schedule metrics.

The Bigger Games

Outside of our 2 highlight games, there are 6 games between teams with just one loss between them:

• Saline (6-0) vs. Temperance Bedford (5-1)

• Livonia Churchill (6-0) vs. Dearborn Fordson (5-1)

• Port Huron Northern (6-0) vs. Port Huron (5-1)

• Livonia Clarenceville (6-0) vs. Berkley (5-1)

• Berrien Springs (6-0) vs. South Haven (5-1)

• Mancelona (5-0) vs. Boyne City (5-1)

Here’s a quick rundown on how Playoff Wizard users are picking each game:

Its’s interesting to note that Playoff Wizard users are picking an upset (the team with one loss) in 4 out of 6 of these contests

The Big Games

Other big games this week are below. These are games between teams with just one loss each.

• Romeo (5-1) vs. Sterling Heights Stevenson (5-1)

• Muskegon Mona Shores (5-1) vs. Muskegon (5-1)

• St. Joseph (5-1) vs. Stevensville Lakeshore (5-1)

• Allen Park (5-1) vs. Harper Woods (5-1)

• Coopersville (5-1) vs. Spring Lake (5-1)

• Lake Fenton (5-1) vs. Goodrich (5-1)

• Vicksburg (5-1) vs. Plainwell (5-1)

• Michigan Center (5-1) vs. Napoleon (5-1)

• Detroit Community (5-1) vs. Detroit Leadership (5-1) Update: This game was played Thursday. Detroit Leadership won, 22-0

• Reese (5-1) vs. Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker (5-1)

Should be a fun week all around. Stay tuned Sunday for our Week 7 wrap-up. Subscribe below to make sure you don’t miss it:

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