MHSAA Semi Final Preview

This much is certain: 4 unbeatens will go down this week

November 19, 2021

Hello all,

As promised in our Week 12 Wrap-Up, we’re previewing the largest games happening around the state this weekend.

Of the 16 matchups going down, there are only 7 occurring between top 5 seeds:

Division 1

  • #5 Rochester Adams (12-0) vs. #4 Grand Blanc (12-0)

Division 2

  • #4 Traverse City Central (11-1) vs. #2 South Lyon (12-0)

Division 4

  • #3 Edwardsburg (12-0) vs. #2 Unity Christian (12-0)

Division 5

  • #4 Frankenmuth (12-0) vs. #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central (12-0)

Division 7

  • #5 Pewamo-Westphalia (12-0) vs. #3 Traverse City St Francis (12-0)

Division 8

  • #5 Ubly (12-0) vs. #4 Beal City (11-1)

  • #2 Ottawa Lake-Whiteford (11-1) vs. #1 Hudson (12-0)

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#5 Rochester Adams (12-0) vs. #4 Grand Blanc (12-0) @ Howell, Saturday 1PM

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent Wins): 59 (RA) vs. 68 (GB)

  • Strength of Schedule (Avg Opponent Point Differential): -1.6 (RA) vs. 3.1 (GB)

  • Offensive Production: 32.1 (RA) vs. 38.3 (GB)

  • Defensive Production: 11.4 (RA) vs. 16.9 (GB)

  • Last Meeting: Never

  • Common Opponents: Lapeer. Grand Blanc won 30-6; Adams won 42-20

  • Best Win: Grand Blanc over Rockford, 28-27

  • Worst Loss: N/A (both teams undefeated)

In the first of our 4 unbeaten matchups this week, we have 5th seeded Rochester Adams facing off against 4th seeded Grand Blanc. Grand Blanc is fresh off defeating Rockford 28-27, in what may have been the State’s most impressive victory thus far this year. Rochester Adams is coming off an impressive victory themselves, as they once again dealt with West Bloomfield, winning 14-13.

Statistically, this is an interesting matchup: Rochester Adams has the worst offense of any team in our featured games this week, and Grand Blanc has the second worst defense. So, the matchup to watch will be when Grand Blanc has the ball.

Can Rochester Adams stop them? Looking to last week, you might say yes: Adams held a very good West Bloomfield team to only 13 points. But the two team’s only common opponent tells a different story: Lapeer scored 3x as many points on Adams as they did on Grand Blanc.

Moving to strength of schedule, Grand Blanc has the edge in both categories: they’ve played better teams who are winning by more. On top of this, let’s not forget Grand Blanc’s signature win last week (Rockford).

In sum, this is a game where the teams have near equal metrics, yet one has played a tougher schedule. In situations like this, you have to lean towards the stronger resume.

Mother Goose’s Pick: Grand Blanc

#4 Traverse City Central (11-1) vs. #2 South Lyon (12-0) @ Greenville, Saturday 1PM

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent Wins): 73 (TCC) vs. 63 (SL)

  • Strength of Schedule (Avg Opponent Point Differential): 3.2 (TCC) vs. 0.3 (SL)

  • Offensive Production: 48.2 (TCC) vs. 40.2 (SL)

  • Defensive Production: 12.9 (TCC) vs. 13.9 (SL)

  • Last Meeting: Never

  • Common Opponents: None

  • Best Win: Traverse City Central over Caledonia, 42-14

  • Worst Loss: DeWitt over Traverse City Central, 42-27

Believe it or not, our model is telling us this is actually the most-lopsided matchup of our 7 featured games this week. This is driven by both production and resume: Traverse City Central wins by nearly 10 more points per game than South Lyon, and they have been doing so against a stronger schedule to boot.

Backing this up is Traverse City’s performance last week: they beat a very good Caledonia team, 42-14. While South Lyon’s best victory was last week as well (Portage Central), the opponent themselves was worse than TCC’s, and they needed overtime to win.

I’m going with the model here - Trojans keep rolling.

Mother Goose’s Pick: Traverse City Central

#3 Edwardsburg (12-0) vs. #2 Unity Christian (12-0) @ Portage Northern, Saturday 1PM

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent Wins): 61 (E) vs. 67 (UC)

  • Strength of Schedule (Avg Opponent Point Differential): -4.3 (E) vs. -1.5 (UC)

  • Offensive Production: 52.6 (E) vs. 57.8 (UC)

  • Defensive Production: 4.7 (E) vs. 13.1 (UC)

  • Last Meeting: Never

  • Common Opponents: None

  • Best Win: Unity Christian over Cadillac, 53-22

  • Worst Loss: N/A (both teams undefeated)

Wow. The stats almost speak for themselves: in what will be merely a semifinal game, we have the State’s top defense (Edwardsburg) facing off against the State’s top offense (Unity Christian). The Eddies’ offense is no slouch themselves: they actually have the second best offense in the State.

So expect the fireworks here. Which side will prevail? You might look at the strength of schedule metrics to find out: while Edwardsburg has the edge in production, it has come against worse opponents overall. On top of this, Unity Christian owns the best win of the two, as they defeated Cadillac last week, 53-22. Compare this to Edwardsburg’s margin of victory in their own best win (South Christian, 28-14), and the picture gets a little clearer: Edwardsburg’s offense may not show up against higher caliber opponents.

Mother Goose’s Pick: Unity Christian

#4 Frankenmuth (12-0) vs. #1 Grand Rapids Catholic Central (12-0) @ Mount Pleasant, Saturday 1PM

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent Wins): 69 (F) vs. 66 (GRCC)

  • Strength of Schedule (Avg Opponent Point Differential): 2.0 (F) vs. 0.9 (GRCC)

  • Offensive Production: 41.2 (F) vs. 43.4 (GRCC)

  • Defensive Production: 10.0 (F) vs. 10.1 (GRCC)

  • Last Meeting: 2020 D5 Final. GRCC won, 48-21.

  • Common Opponents: None

  • Best Win: GRCC over West Catholic, 44-6

  • Worst Loss: N/A (both teams undefeated)

In a rematch of last year’s Division 5 final, we have two unbeatens squaring off. From a historical perspective, GRCC comes in a heavy favorite, as they currently own two straight titles, and a win streak stretching back to 2019.

From a production perspective, GRCC is also the favorite, albeit by a narrower margin: both teams have nearly identical defenses, but GRCC scores slightly more points per game.

Finally (and somewhat surprisingly), Frankenmuth has had a slightly tougher schedule: their opponents have more wins and have won by more points thus far this year.

So on paper, this is closer than you might think - still, you have to go with the reigning champ here; last time they played in a big game like this, they blew out West Catholic, winning 44-6.

Mother Goose’s Pick: Grand Rapids Catholic Central

#5 Pewamo-Westphalia (12-0) vs. #3 Traverse City St Francis (12-0) @ Cedar Springs, Saturday 1PM

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent Wins): 70 (PW) vs. 67 (TCSF)

  • Strength of Schedule (Avg Opponent Point Differential): 3.3 (PW) vs. 1.6 (TCSF)

  • Offensive Production: 38.7 (PW) vs. 50.0 (TCSF)

  • Defensive Production: 5.6 (PW) vs. 15.0 (TCSF)

  • Last Meeting: 2016 Regional Final. PW won, 17-14

  • Common Opponents: None

  • Best Win: PW over Lansing Catholic Central, 12-6

  • Worst Loss: N/A (both teams undefeated)

We are predicting that the last of our unbeaten matchups this week is actually the best game of the 4. While TCSF scores about two touchdowns more per game than PW, PW plays better defense, allowing 10 less points per game.

Still, from an average margin of victory perspective, St Francis takes the cake. But who has played tougher opponents? PW has the Gladiators in both categories here, but not a by a crazy margin. However, look closely at the individual opponents, and you might say that gap is wider than it looks: PW’s best win was quite impressive, as they held fellow semifinalist Lansing Catholic to only 7 points in a Week 9 bout.

I like the PW defense to show up again here.

Mother Goose’s Pick: Pewamo-Westphalia

#5 Ubly (12-0) vs. #4 Beal City (11-1) @ Mt. Morris, Saturday 1PM

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent Wins): 61 (U) vs. 68 (BC)

  • Strength of Schedule (Avg Opponent Point Differential): 3.8 (U) vs. 3.8 (BC)

  • Offensive Production: 45.5 (U) vs. 37.6 (BC)

  • Defensive Production: 10.5 (U) vs. 8.6 (BC)

  • Last Meeting: 2019 Semi Final. Ubly lost, 20-21

  • Common Opponents: None.

  • Best Win: Beal City over Carson City-Crystal, 34-14

  • Worst Loss: Ravenna over Beal City, 21-20

This newsletter has covered a bunch of D8 football this year, but we’ve yet to cover Ubly. And we’ve been frothing at the mouth to do so - the Bearcats are winning by more points per game than any team left in D8, and this has come against a schedule that is tied for the strongest in the Division.

So does Beal City have a chance? I would say they do: they have the best win of the two teams, as they defeated a 10-1 Carson City-Crystal last week, winning by 3 scores. Adding to this narrative is the result the last time these two teams met: Beal City narrowly edged Ubly in a 2019 semifinal, prevailing 21-20.

But put the history aside: you can’t discount the metrics here. Ubly has been winning by more against tougher competition.

Mother Goose’s Pick: Ubly

#2 Ottawa Lake-Whiteford (11-1) vs. #1 Hudson (12-0) @ Adrian College, Saturday 1PM

  • Strength of Schedule (Opponent Wins): 65 (OW) vs. 67 (H)

  • Strength of Schedule (Avg Opponent Point Differential): 3.6 (OW) vs. 2.3 (H)

  • Offensive Production: 50.5 (OW) vs. 32.8 (H)

  • Defensive Production: 19.8 (OW) vs. 5.8 (H)

  • Last Meeting: Never

  • Common Opponents: Ida (OW won 34-14; Hudson won 22-14); Blissfield (OW won 52-21; Hudson won 43-0); Erie Mason (OW won 62-22; Hudson won 22-0)

  • Best Win: Hudson over Addison, 28-8

  • Worst Loss: Edon (OH) over Ottawa Lake-Whiteford, 32-52

In our second matchup of top seeded teams thus far this playoff season, we have two teams that are unbeaten in the State of Michigan: Whiteford’s lone loss came to Edon, Ohio back in Week 4.

Statistically, these two teams are yin and yang: Whiteford scores nearly 17 more points per game than Hudson, but also gives up nearly that amount more. And these differences have come against nearly identical schedules, as both team’s opponents have been near equal.

Looking at how each fairs in big games, you might side with Hudson: in their matchup against #3 Addison a few weeks ago, their defense showed up, holding a very good 1-loss team to just 8 points.

So from a facts perspective, I’m leaning Hudson here. BUT ….. you have to pick some upsets. And I think there’s a chance that Whiteford’s offense is the one that finally breaks through the Tiger D.

Mother Goose’s Pick: Ottawa Lake-Whiteford

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