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Final 2023 Football Computer Rankings
Where your team finished the year, according to math
Hi Guys - I lied about the last post being my final football one for the year
… or maybe I didn’t, since we’re now in 2024!
Anyways, I realized I forgot to post what was a fan favorite last year:
Final 2023 football computer rankings.
So let’s jump in!
A Word of Caution
Before we get into the rankings, I want to extend a word of caution:
These rankings are not going to 100% fit what happened in the State Tournament.
Why?
Because our model is trying to predict what happens ‘on average’.
‘On average’ is the expected result across millions of different scenarios….
….and that’s way different than reality, in which the games are played only once.
This disconnect between projections and reality is illustrated none better than this year’s Oregon / Washington series.
In Game 1, oddsmakers favored Washington over Oregon by 3.5.
Washington promptly won that game by almost exactly that spread: 34 - 31.
So when they met again in the Conference Championship, Washington was favored once more by the same amount, right?
Nope.
By that time, oddsmakers now favored Oregon by 9.5.
The Huskies proceeded to win again.
All this goes to show: we play the games for a reason.
We don’t decide a champion via computer models (although this year’s CFB Playoff selection process may say otherwise) …. they are just fun to look at.
Alright - rant over. Let’s look at some stats.
Division 1 Computer Rankings
We’ll start off with perhaps the most controversial division: D1
Rockford ends the year at #1, a feat they accomplished the prior year as well. Doing a lot of work for them here is their Week 1 defeat of Muskegon by 20 points, who eventually claimed the D2 crown.
Belleville would have finished #1, but their upset to Southfield drags down their computer rating quite a bit.
And what about Southfield? Why are they stuck way down at 7th?
It’s a combination of their earlier loss to West Bloomfield, plus their close victories over their other opponents…. unlike Rockford, Belleville, or Lake Orion, they played in a ton of 1 score games, so the computer rates them as very similar to their opponents.
Note: I’m only posting the top 20 for every division on here.
If you want to see the full list, you can log onto Goosepoop Pro and check it out.
Division 2 Computer Rankings
D2 looks about chalk - the Champion, Muskegon, ended the year as #1, playing the #3 team, De La Salle, in the finals.
Caledonia and Byron Center are flipped from their onfield result, but that’s probably driven by BC’s losses more than Cal’s wins: BC lost to D3 #6 Lowell and D2 #10 East Lansing.
Note: I’m only posting the top 20 for every division on here.
If you want to see the full list, you can log onto Goosepoop Pro and check it out.
Division 3 Computer Rankings
D3 is also solid - FHC, this year’s Champion, held the top spot all season long, and they played the #2 team in the semis (Zeeland West), and the #3 team in the finals (Mason).
Note: I’m only posting the top 20 for every division on here.
If you want to see the full list, you can log onto Goosepoop Pro and check it out.
Division 4 Computer Rankings
D4 is close to solid, but only narrowly so.
Harper Woods *just* edged out Whitehall for #1, by the slimmest of margins.
Whitehall not making the final is of course a miss for the model.
So is Niles not making the semi - although getting upset by Portland as a 7 point favorite is not the *wildest* of outcomes.
Note: I’m only posting the top 20 for every division on here.
If you want to see the full list, you can log onto Goosepoop Pro and check it out.
Halftime
Guys -
Can I give you an update on Teamfi?
I’ve been telling you about it for the last 9 months, so its only right!
Since we launched last April, teams around the State have used Teamfi to successfully fundraise half a million dollars.
That’s great, but you know what’s even more important to me?
Because Teamfi is FREE, those same teams have saved around $100K in fees.
****
This is the whole reason I started Teamfi …
I wanted to give coaches an option that lets them keep 100% of their dollars raised in their communities.
If you’d like to see a 15-minute demonstration of Teamfi ahead of next season, you can shoot me an email here: [email protected]
(or you can book a meeting on my calendar via the ‘book a demo’ button on our website)
Thanks guys!
Division 5 Computer Rankings
D5 is our next wacky division, after D1.
West Catholic ends as the computer’s favorite here, but I’m not necessarily surprised by that.
They gave GRCC their only 1 score game of the year (losing by 2 points), and they also blew out most of their other opponents - as I’ve said before, teams that win by wide point differentials get a lot of credit from the computer.
Corunna being ranked under Notre Dame Prep might also surprise you, as the on field result was flipped. I don’t have a good explainer on this one - that’s just how the math worked out!
Note: I’m only posting the top 20 for every division on here.
If you want to see the full list, you can log onto Goosepoop Pro and check it out.
Division 6 Computer Rankings
D6 was our only perfectly called State Final (although as you see above, a lot of that has to do with geography).
The ultimate Champ, Kingsley, ends the year as #1, with the runner-up, Almont, ending the year as #2.
The Almont / MI Collegiate District Final proved to indeed be a State Semifinal, as it was between the eventual #2 and #3 teams.
Note: I’m only posting the top 20 for every division on here.
If you want to see the full list, you can log onto Goosepoop Pro and check it out.
Division 7 Computer Rankings
Another chalk division (apologies if it seems like I’m bragging - trust me, just look at 2022’s State Final projections to find out that I’m not).
Lumen Christi, the Champ, ends the year as #1.
One *slight* head-scratcher is Clinton above Menominee, as Menominee was lost to LC by only 4, while Clinton lost to LC by 7.
The difference there is Clinton’s strength of schedule, vis a vis the Maroons. That’s enough to bump them up 3 points higher (not a ton in the grand scheme of things).
Note: I’m only posting the top 20 for every division on here.
If you want to see the full list, you can log onto Goosepoop Pro and check it out.
Division 8 Computer Rankings
Our final division was also properly called in the #1 spot, as Ubly took home the Championship.
#2 might surprise you, however, as Fowler did not make it out of Round 1.
That’s a bit of misnomer, as they did have to play the #5 team, Ithaca in that round (worst possible draw of any two teams in the State).
They are also getting credit for scoring lots of points against the teams they played - Fowler’s offense was one of the most prolific in the State this past year, and winning by wide point differentials helps you in the computer’s eyes quite a bit.
Note: I’m only posting the top 20 for every division on here.
If you want to see the full list, you can log onto Goosepoop Pro and check it out.
8 Man Division 1 Computer Rankings
This division may be the most divorced from reality of all?
It’s not necessarily Gobles at #1 - they beat Martin earlier in the year, so I understand how the model could still think they’re better, despite losing to the Clippers in the playoffs.
What I’m really looking at is Indian River at #8. If you recall, they made the final against Martin, a game which they could have won.
Why they’re down at 8 is anyone’s guess…. however, I will note that the gap between them and #3 Pickford isn’t much (the model has Pickford as merely 6 points better than them, meaning any games between teams #3 - 8 would be essentially toss ups).
Note: I’m only posting the top 10 for each 8 man division.
If you want to see the full list, reply to this email and I’ll send you the full 8 man rankings.
8 Man Division 2 Computer Rankings
Along with D6, the model also nailed this one. Lenawee Christian and Marion were both undefeated and top ranked heading into the State Final, and both end the year rated #1 and #2, respectively.
Note: I’m only posting the top 10 for each 8 man division.
If you want to see the full list, reply to this email and I’ll send you the full 8 man rankings.
That’s all for today’s note guys, thanks once again for reading!
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