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Baseball State Tournament Preview Guide
Projecting District Champs / Sweet 16 / Elite 8 / Final 4 in Every Division
Hi Everyone!
Welcome back to the Sixty-Fifth Edition of Goosepoop.
The MHSAA Baseball State Tournament kicks off this week, and we’ve spent some time preparing the below guide to make sure you’re ready for all the action.
Scroll on to to find the following sections:
Bracket Links: Links to the MHSAA’s Brackets for all 4 Divisions’ State Tournaments
Final Computer Model Rankings: Our computer model’s final rankings of the top 20 teams in each division
Quadrant Superlatives: Awarding the team with the best offense / defense / strength of schedule in the 4 quadrants of each Division’s bracket
District Rankings: A look at the two strongest & weakest districts in each Division’s bracket
Bracket Projection: Our computer model’s projected District Champs / Sweet 16 / Elite 8 / Final 4 for each Division
District Matchups to Watch: A look at the biggest potential matchups of the District round
Also, make sure you subscribe if you haven’t already. That way you’ll get next year’s bracket preview guide delivered straight to your inbox!
Finally, if you want to know how accurate our computer model is at making the sort of predictions you’re about to read, take a look at our Basketball Bracket Preview Guide from earlier this year (below).
……..this will hopefully give you a feel for just how much stock you can put in these sorts of projections!
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This Year’s Baseball Brackets
To prep you for our analysis below, I highly suggest you check out the brackets for yourself at this link:
Final Computer Model Rankings
Ok, let’s dig in - a good place to start is our recent rankings of the top 20 teams in each division.
At the link below, you will find these…. but take note: all rankings are strictly numerical.
Our computer model develops them 100% on its own….. we do not editorialize here one bit.
(Computer Rankings Link Below)
Quadrant Superlatives
With these rankings under our belt, we can now dig one level deeper: let’s apply the rankings to the brackets & see how things shake out.
The below ‘Superlatives’ are the awards our Computer Model would give out for the best teams by category in each Bracket’s four quadrants.
Again, each award is strictly numerical - no editorializing is done in selecting these.
Division 1
Division 1, QF1
Highest Rated Team: Bay City Western
Lowest Rated Team: Muskegon
Highest Rated Offense: Bay City Western
Lowest Rated Offense: Muskegon
Highest Rated Defense: Bay City Western
Lowest Rated Defense: Muskegon
Highest Strength of Schedule: Hudsonville
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Marquette
Division 1, QF2
Highest Rated Team: Northville
Lowest Rated Team: Lansing Everett
Highest Rated Offense: Northville
Lowest Rated Offense: Lansing Everett
Highest Rated Defense: Northville
Lowest Rated Defense: Lansing Everett
Highest Strength of Schedule: Detroit Catholic Central
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Redford Thurston
Division 1, QF3
Highest Rated Team: Brother Rice
Lowest Rated Team: Hamtramck
Highest Rated Offense: Brother Rice
Lowest Rated Offense: Hamtramck
Highest Rated Defense: Brother Rice
Lowest Rated Defense: River Rouge
Highest Strength of Schedule: U of D Jesuit
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Hamtramck
Division 1, QF4
Highest Rated Team: Orchard Lake St Mary’s
Lowest Rated Team: Carman-Ainsworth
Highest Rated Offense: Orchard Lake St Mary’s
Lowest Rated Offense: Carman-Ainsworth
Highest Rated Defense: Sterling Heights Stevenson
Lowest Rated Defense: Carman-Ainsworth
Highest Strength of Schedule: Orchard Lake St Mary’s
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Port Huron Northern
Division 2
Division 2, QF5
Highest Rated Team: Forest Hills Eastern
Lowest Rated Team: Muskegon Orchard View
Highest Rated Offense: Forest Hills Eastern
Lowest Rated Offense: Howard City Tri County
Highest Rated Defense: Forest Hills Eastern
Lowest Rated Defense: Muskegon Orchard View
Highest Strength of Schedule: Forest Hills Eastern
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Houghton
Division 2, QF6
Highest Rated Team: Stevensville Lakeshore
Lowest Rated Team: Wyoming Kelloggsville
Highest Rated Offense: Grand Rapids Christian
Lowest Rated Offense: Wyoming Godwin Heights
Highest Rated Defense: Stevensville Lakeshore
Lowest Rated Defense: Benton Harbor
Highest Strength of Schedule: Stevensville Lakeshore
Lowest Strength of Schedule: West MI Aviation Academy
Division 2, QF7
Highest Rated Team: GP Woods University Liggett
Lowest Rated Team: Detroit Cody
Highest Rated Offense: GP Woods University Liggett
Lowest Rated Offense: Detroit Denby
Highest Rated Defense: GP Woods University Liggett
Lowest Rated Defense: Detroit Cody
Highest Strength of Schedule: GP Woods University Liggett
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Detroit East English
Division 2, QF8
Highest Rated Team: Flint Powers Catholic
Lowest Rated Team: Flint Hamady
Highest Rated Offense: Detroit Country Day
Lowest Rated Offense: Flint Hamady
Highest Rated Defense: Flint Powers Catholic
Lowest Rated Defense: Lansing Sexton
Highest Strength of Schedule: St Clair
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Flint Hamady
Division 3
Division 3, QF9
Highest Rated Team: Standish-Sterling
Lowest Rated Team: Manton
Highest Rated Offense: Standish-Sterling
Lowest Rated Offense: Newberry
Highest Rated Defense: Standish-Sterling
Lowest Rated Defense: Manton
Highest Strength of Schedule: Pinconning
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Traverse City Christian
Division 3, QF10
Highest Rated Team: Lansing Catholic
Lowest Rated Team: Bloomingdale
Highest Rated Offense: Parchment
Lowest Rated Offense: Bloomingdale
Highest Rated Defense: Lansing Catholic
Lowest Rated Defense: Bloomingdale
Highest Strength of Schedule: GR West Catholic
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Climax-Scotts
Division 3, QF11
Highest Rated Team: Clinton
Lowest Rated Team: Dearborn Heights Robichaud
Highest Rated Offense: Clinton
Lowest Rated Offense: Dearborn Heights Robichaud
Highest Rated Defense: Lumen Christi
Lowest Rated Defense: Stockbridge
Highest Strength of Schedule: Blissfield
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Taylor Prep
Division 3, QF12
Highest Rated Team: Detroit Edison
Lowest Rated Team: Detroit Pershing
Highest Rated Offense: Detroit Edison
Lowest Rated Offense: Detroit Pershing
Highest Rated Defense: Detroit Edison
Lowest Rated Defense: Detroit Pershing
Highest Strength of Schedule: Detroit Edison
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Detroit Communication Media Arts
Division 4
Division 4, QF13
Highest Rated Team: Indian River Inland Lakes
Lowest Rated Team: Wolverine
Highest Rated Offense: Painesdale Jeffers
Lowest Rated Offense: Wolverine
Highest Rated Defense: Indian River Inland Lakes
Lowest Rated Defense: Hale
Highest Strength of Schedule: East Jordan
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Burt Lake Northern Michigan Christian
Division 4, QF14
Highest Rated Team: Beal City
Lowest Rated Team: Baldwin
Highest Rated Offense: Beal City
Lowest Rated Offense: Baldwin
Highest Rated Defense: Fowler
Lowest Rated Defense: Vestaburg
Highest Strength of Schedule: Farwell
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Baldwin
Division 4, QF15
Highest Rated Team: Decatur
Lowest Rated Team: Waldron
Highest Rated Offense: Decatur
Lowest Rated Offense: Waldron
Highest Rated Defense: Hackett Catholic
Lowest Rated Defense: Waldron
Highest Strength of Schedule: Sand Creek
Lowest Strength of Schedule: North Adams-Jerome
Division 4, QF16
Highest Rated Team: Cardinal Mooney
Lowest Rated Team: Westland Huron Valley Lutheran
Highest Rated Offense: Plymouth Christian
Lowest Rated Offense: Caseville
Highest Rated Defense: Cardinal Mooney
Lowest Rated Defense: Westland Huron Valley Lutheran
Highest Strength of Schedule: Riverview Gabriel Richard
Lowest Strength of Schedule: Detroit Academy of the Americas
District Rankings
Our computer model also has something to say on which districts are strongest and weakest in each division.
Shown below are the two districts with the highest & lowest average team rating:
Division 1
#1 Strongest District
#7 Hartland
#13 Brighton
#26 Howell
#63 South Lyon
#105 South Lyon East
#2 Strongest District
#8 Fenton
#20 Clarkston
#46 Grand Blanc
#72 Holly
#73 Oxford
#1 Weakest District
#50 Detroit Western
#92 Cass Tech
#140 Martin Luther King
#155 Fordson
#156 Hamtramck
#2 Weakest District
#61 U of D Jesuit
#145 Detroit Renaissance
#150 Detroit Mumford
#151 Oak Park
Division 2
#1 Strongest District
#8 Bay City John Glenn
#16 Bullock Creek
#18 Freeland
#42 Essexville Garber
#56 Shepherd
#2 Strongest District
#4 Powers Catholic
#13 Corunna
#20 Lake Fenton
#38 Linden
#83 Owosso
#1 Weakest District
#142 Detroit University Prep
(there is only 1 team in this district)
#2 Weakest District
#129 Livonia Clarenceville
#131 Redford Union
#146 Detroit Henry Ford
#148 Detroit Cody
Division 3
#1 Strongest District
#2 Clinton
#19 Onsted
#20 Adrian Madison
#32 Hudson
#40 Manchester
#2 Strongest District
#11 Monroe SMCC
#15 Ida
#17 OL Whiteford
#18 Blissfield
#118 Erie Mason
#1 Weakest District
#146 Detroit Communication Media Arts
#149 Detroit Loyola
#154 Detroit Jalen Rose
#2 Weakest District
#1 Detroit Edison
#144 Detroit Osborn
#148 Warren Lincoln
#153 Detroit Central
#155 Detroit Pershing
Division 4
#1 Strongest District
#1 Cardinal Mooney
#11 Oakland Christian
#30 Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest
#51 Sterling Heights Parkway Christian
#97 New Haven Merritt Academy
#2 Strongest District
#4 Decatur
#35 Lawrence
#37 Gobles
#109 Marcellus
#1 Weakest District
#73 Bear Lake
#125 Mason County Eastern
#131 Manistee Catholic Central
#142 Brethren
#147 Pentwater
#2 Weakest District
#63 Alcona
#92 Au Gres-Sims
#94 Whittemore-Prescott
#146 St Helen Charlton Heston Academy
#149 Hale
BRACKET PROJECTIONS
Perhaps the most interesting analysis is the Computer Model’s ‘expected case’ for each Division’s bracket.
This ‘expected case’ is what would happen if all favorites win. HOWEVER - before you put too much stock in these, take note just how often the ‘expected case’ happens…….
Division 1
District Champs
#1 Mount Pleasant
#2 Bay City Western
#3 Grand Haven
#4 Rockford
#5 Jenison
#6 GR Forest Hills Central
#7 Hudsonville
#8 Portage Central
#9 Okemos
#10 BC Lakeview
#11 Hartland
#12 Saline
#13 Monroe
#14 Livonia Franklin
#15 Northville
#16 Detroit CC
#17 Woodhaven
#18 Allen Park
#19 Detroit Western
#20 GP North
#21 Warren De La Salle
#22 Royal Oak
#23 U of D Jesuit
#24 Brother Rice
#25 Sterling Heights Stevenson
#26 Macomb Dakota
#27 Rochester Adams
#28 Troy Athens
#29 Orchard Lake St Mary’s
#30 White Lake Lakeland
#31 Fenton
#32 Davison
Sweet 16
Bay City Western
Rockford
Jenison
Portage Central
BC Lakeview
Hartland
Monroe
Northville
Allen Park
Detroit Western
Warren De La Salle
Brother Rice
Sterling Heights Stevenson
Rochester Adams
Orchard Lake St Mary’s
Fenton
Elite 8
Bay City Western
Rockford
BC Lakeview
Northville
Allen Park
Brother Rice
Orchard Lake St Mary’s
Rochester Adams
Final 4
Bay City Western
Northville
Brother Rice
Orchard Lake St Mary’s
Championship
Brother Rice
Northville
Champion
Northville
Division 2
District Champs
#33 Sault Ste Marie
#34 Gaylord
#35 Gladwin
#36 BC John Glenn
#37 Alma
#38 Spring Lake
#39 Coopersville
#40 Forest Hills Eastern
#41 GR Christian
#42 Unity Christian
#43 Holland Christian
#44 Gull Lake
#45 Stevensville Lakeshore
#46 Vicksburg
#47 BC Harper Creek
#48 Olivet
#49 Chelsea
#50 Adrian
#51 Carleton Airport
#52 Riverview
#53 Divine Child
#54 Livonia Clarenceville
#55 University Prep
#56 GP Woods University Liggett
#57 Madison Heights Lamphere
#58 Richmond
#59 North Branch
#60 Country Day
#61 Williamston
#62 Flint Powers Catholic
#63 Franknmuth
#64 Swan Valley
Sweet 16
Gaylord
BC John Glenn
Spring Lake
Forest Hills Eastern
GR Christian
Holland Christian
Stevensville Lakeshore
Olivet
Adrian
Carleton Airport
Divine Child
GP Woods University Liggett
Richmond
Detroit Country Day
Flint Powers Catholic
Frankenmuth
Elite 8
Spring Lake
Forest Hills Eastern
Stevensville Lakeshore
Olivet
Adrian
GP Woods University Liggett
Flint Powers Catholic
Detroit Country Day
Final 4
Forest Hills Eastern
Stevensville Lakeshore
GP Woods University Liggett
Flint Powers Catholic
Championship
Stevensville Lakeshore
GP Woods University Liggett
Champion
Stevensville Lakeshore
Division 3
District Champs
#65 Negaunee
#66 Gladstone
#67 Charlevoix
#68 Grayliing
#69 Mason County Central
#70 TC St Francis
#71 Standish-Sterling
#72 Clare
#73 Watervliet
#74 Parchment
#75 Calvin Christian
#76 North Muskegon
#77 Chesaning
#78 Laingsburg
#79 Lansing Catholic
#80 West Catholic
#81 Bridgman
#82 Schoolcraft
#83 Homer
#84 Lumen Christi
#85 Grass Lake
#86 Clinton
#87 Monroe SMCC
#88 Brighton Charyl Stockwell Prep
#89 Detroit Communication Media Arts
#90 Ecorse
#91 Detroit Edison
#92 Madison Heights Bishop Foley
#93 Algonac
#94 New Lothrop
#95 Reese
#96 Cass City
Sweet 16
Gladstone
Charlevoix
TC St Francis
Standish-Sterling
Parchment
North Muskegon
Laingsburg
Lansing Catholic
Bridgman
Lumen Christi
Clinton
Monroe SMCC
Ecorse
Detroit Edison
Algonac
Cass City
Elite 8
Gladstone
Standish-Sterling
Parchment
Lansing Catholic
Clinton
Lumen Christi
Algonac
Detroit Edison
Final 4
Standish-Sterling
Lansing Catholic
Clinton
Detroit Edison
Championship
Detroit Edison
Clinton
Champion
Detroit Edison
Division 4
District Champs
#97 Painesdale Jeffers
#98 Norway
#99 Rudyard
#100 Indian River Inland Lakes
#101 East Jordan
#102 Gaylord St Mary
#103 Hillamn
#104 Alcona
#105 MC Glen Lake
#106 Marion
#107 Bear Lake
#108 Muskegon Catholic Central
#109 Beal City
#110 Merrill
#111 Fowler
#112 Lansing Christian
#113 St Joseph Michigan Lutheran
#114 Decatur
#115 Byron Center Zion Christian
#116 Kalamazoo Hackett Catholic Prep
#117 Tekonsha
#118 Concord
#119 Camden-Frontier
#120 Petersburg Summerfield
#121 Ubly
#122 Kingston
#123 Marlette
#124 Dryden
#125 Cardinal Mooney
#126 Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes
#127 Riverview Gabriel Richard
#128 Plymouth Christian Academy
Sweet 16
Painesdale Jeffers
Indian River Inland Lakes
East Jordan
Hillman
MC Glen Lake
Muskegon Catholic Central
Beal City
Fowler
Decatur
Kzoo Hackett Catholic Prep
Concord
Petersburg-Summerfield
Ubly
Marlette
Cardinal Mooney
Plymouth Christian Academy
Elite 8
Painesdale Jeffers
Indian River Inland Lakes
Beal City
Fowler
Decatur
Kzoo Hackett Catholic Prep
Cardinal Mooney
Plymouth Christian Academy
Final 4
Indian River Inland Lakes
Beal City
Decatur
Cardinal Mooney
Championship
Beal City
Cardinal Mooney
Champion
Cardinal Mooney
District Matchups to Watch
With a good understanding of the brackets now in hand, we can zoom into the District matchups looming in the coming week. Where in the State will top teams square off in the opening rounds? Look below for the answer.
Potential Matchups between Top 20 Ranked Teams
(The Favorite’s Chance of Winning is in Parentheses)
Division 1
#7 Hartland vs. #13 Brighton (Hartland 52%)
#2 Brother Rice vs. #15 Seaholm (Brother Rice 72%)
#3 OLSM vs. #12 West Bloomfield (OLSM 69%)
#8 Fenton vs. #20 Clarkston (Fenton 58%)
Division 2
#8 BC John Glenn vs. #16 Bullock Creek (BCJG 65%)
#16 Bullock Creek vs. #18 Freeland (Toss-Up)
#8 BC John Glenn vs. #18 Freeland (BCJG 65%)
#17 Adrian vs. #19 Tecumseh (Toss-Up)
#7 Carleton Airport vs. #10 New Boston Huron (Airport 52%)
#6 Country Day vs. #12 Goodrich (Country Day 65%)
#4 Flint Powers vs. #13 Corunna (Powers 67%)
#13 Corunna vs. #20 Lake Fenton (Corunna 52%)
#4 Powers vs. #20 Lake Fenton (Powers 72%)
Division 3
#9 North Muskegon vs. #14 Montague (North Muskegon 58%)
#2 Clinton vs. #19 Onsted (Clinton 75%)
#11 Monroe SMCC vs. #15 Ida (SMCC 52%)
#11 SMCC vs. #17 Whiteford (SMCC 58%)
#11 SMCC vs. #18 Blissfield (SMCC 65%)
#15 Ida vs. #17 Whiteford (Toss-Up)
#15 Ida vs. #18 Blissfield (Toss-Up)
#17 Whiteford vs. #18 Blissfield (Toss-Up)
#3 Algonac vs. #12 Almont (Algonac 67%)
Divison 4
#18 Jeffers vs. #20 Ontonagon (Jeffers 52%)
#3 Beal City vs. #8 MP Sacred Heart (Beal City 67%)
#1 Cardinal Mooney vs. #11 Oakland Christian (Mooney 85%)
#8 Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes vs. #9 Shrine Catholic (WLOL 55%)
And that’s all for our first-ever Baseball State Tournament Bracket Preview Guide!
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