A new #1 in D3 & D8

The Week 7 2022 Wrap - Up is here

October 10, 2022

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #46!

Today is our seventh of fourteen weekly wrap-ups, where we digest all of the week’s high school football action.

In today’s note, we’ve got the following sections:

  • Big Game Review - a brief review of our 2 feature games from last week

  • Tracking the Champs - game results for each of the State’s 2021 Champions

  • Biggest Upsets - the 10 largest upsets from around the State

  • Model Check-In - how our models fared in picking Week 7 games

  • Survivor Island - a count of the State’s unbeaten teams

  • Most Improved - a look at which teams have improved the most this year

  • Most Underrated - a look at the top 10 teams with losing records

  • Superlatives - a smattering of other Week 7 fun facts

  • Computer Ratings - Week 7 computer ratings for every division

  • Next Week - where next week’s biggest games are

Scroll on to check them out!

Before we jump into the post, I want to take a moment and say thanks to our entire community of 833 subscribers.

As of last week, this newsletter is now 1 year old, and we’re forever thankful to the love & support you guys have shown us over that time period.

Here’s to year 2 and knocking down 1000 subscribers! If you haven’t yet subscribed, you can do so right here:

Also, if you like what you’re reading, please share it on social media. It’s really the best way for us to grow!

Goosepoop Premium

One last thing.

This week we’re releasing our first paid product.

Goosepoop Premium brings you all of our Computer Model’s data, for every game in the State.

That means the same model that just predicted 85% of the winners last Friday night will be be in your hands - you’ll have the spread & over/under for every game in the State.

You’ll also be able to track which teams are rising and falling the fastest - did you know that between this week last, there was a team that moved 90+ spots?

If you’re interested, you can sign up to be notified when it releases here:

Launching our first paid product is a huge step in the journey we’re on, and we hope you’re as excited as we are!

Big Game Review

In our first game of the week, we told you not to pay too much attention to Hudsonville’s record:

Hudsonville flys under the radar because their record is poor (they’re 2-4 and went 4-5 last year), but do not underestimate them: their record is merely a reflection of the schedule they’ve played to date (the 7th toughest in the State). As such, despite having only two wins, the Eagles are actually the 17th best team in the Division 1.

Well, this prediction played out - the Eagles lead at halftime against Rockford, the #2 team in the State, only to end up losing by 11, 42 - 31.

With the loss, Hudsonville is still #16 in D1, and the second best losing record team in the State. They showed why they absolutely deserve to make the Playoffs; however, to make that happen, they have some work to do.

According to the Playoff Wizard, the Eagles NEED to win out to have a shot at the Playoffs. They should be favored in Week 9 against Grand Haven, but this coming week, they play East Kentwood, a team who they will be merely a 2 point favorite against (EK is #17 in D1).

On the other side of the State, there is far less drama involved: both of our teams (Macomb Dakota and Utica Eisenhower) should comfortably make the playoffs. As such, this game was merely for conference bragging rights: Eisenhower was playing for a share of the MAC Red title, and Dakota was playing for it outright.

Well, Dakota took care of business, winning the game 31 - 14. They are now 7-0, their best start since 2013. They will be large favorites in each of their remaining games (Utica Ford and Mumford), so look for the Cougars to finish the regular season unblemished.

As for Eisenhower, they have a slightly more difficult finish to the season: after this week’s game against Utica, they will play West Bloomfield, a team of similar stature to Dakota. As of now, they’ll be a 17 point underdog - if things play out that way, look for Eisenhower to finish 6-3, their best regular season since 2019.

Hudsonville vs. Rockford

Here’s some highlights from the game:

Utica Eisenhower vs. Macomb Dakota

Here’s some highlights from the game:

Tracking the Champs

Let’s check in how our 2021 State Champs fared over the weekend:

As our model predicted, both Chelsea and Lansing Catholic lost this past weekend.

At 2 - 5, Lansing Catholic can still make the playoffs - if they just beat Fowlerville next week, the Playoff Wizard has the Cougars getting in at 3 - 6.

Week 8 will be a big week for many of our State Champs:

  • Belleville plays fellow 7-0, Livonia Franklin 

  • Warren DLS plays D3 #1 River Rouge

  • Detroit MLK *might* play D1 #14 Cass Tech (still waiting for PSL schedules to post)

  • Hudson plays 6-1 Dundee

Stay tuned Thursday for our model’s predictions on each!

Biggest Upsets

Per our computer model, there were 36 upsets last week. Below are the top 10 largest ones, ranked via the favorited team’s point spread heading into the game:

White Lake Lakeland was the largest underdog to win - they came in a 27 point underdog to South Lyon East.

Other results to note:

  • Temperance Bedford knocked off undefeated Saline

  • Armada knocked off undefeated North Branch 

  • Ovid-Elsie knocked off undefeated New Lothrop

  • Warren Mott knocked off undefeated Port Huron Northern

  • Fruitport knocked off Grand Rapids West Catholic

Model Check - In

Let’s check back in on our Playoff Wizard and Goosepoop Computer Model picks - how did they do in Week 7?

Goosepoop Computer Model

  • Predicted 209 out of 245 games correctly (85% Accuracy)

  • Predicted 182 out of 235 games correctly (77% Accuracy)

For the fourth week in a row, the Computer Model has beaten the Playoff Wizard Users!

Survivor Island

Let’s check-in on the State’s remaining unbeaten teams.

  • Last week, we left you with 45 unbeaten teams. We said that that number could technically stay at 45, as 0 unbeaten teams were projected to play each other

  • This week, we are now down to 35 unbeaten teams. This equates to roughly 4 unbeaten teams per division, or 7% of all teams

  • In Week 8, we have 1 game between unbeaten teams. This means that at the most, there will likely be 34 unbeaten teams after Week 8.

  • Most likely, there will be at least a few more undefeated teams that lose - we currently have 5 games where unbeaten teams are the underdogs or favorited by less than 4 points (find out who these teams are on Thursday)

Good luck to all teams still in search of that perfect regular season!

Most Improved

Which teams have improved the most over their 2021 win totals? Check out the answer below:

Birmingham Seaholm continues to lead the field here - we predict that they will end the year the State’s most improved team, as they’ll be favored in each of their remaining games.

Most Underrated

Let’s take a look at the best teams with losing records:

Brother Rice, who did not play last week, continues to be our best team with a losing record (our model has them at #4 in D3).

Other teams to note are Hudsonville (D1 #16), Orchard Lake (D4 #8), and Ida (D6 #12). Let’s hope that each of these teams can still make the playoffs - we predict each can do some real damage if they do.

Superlatives

Last Week

  • Most Pts Scored: (71) Beal City over Manton, 71-0

  • Most Total Points Scored: (97) Livonia Churchill over Wayne Memorial, 69-28

  • Least Total Points Scored: (7)

    • Temperance Bedford over Saline, 7-0

    • Kingsford over Petoskey, 7-0

  • Safety Alert:

    • No Safety Alerts this Week :(

Season to Date

  • Most Points per Game: (54.4) Belleville

  • Least Points Allowed per Game: (3.5) River Rouge

  • Best Offense (per computer model): (49.1) Warren DLS

  • Best Defense (per computer model): (18.5) Macomb Dakota

  • Toughest Schedule (per computer model): Orchard Lake St Mary’s

  • Longest Active Win Streak: (21) Hudson

We also did longer versions of our most points scored & least points allowed analyses. For those, check out our social media posts below:

Computer Rankings

Division 1

No changes here at the top spot - Caledonia continues to lead Rockford by just over a point.

Belleville has fallen down to #10 (they were previously at #3). This is likely due to strength of schedule - the Tigers have had the easiest schedule to date of any team in our Top 10.

Division 2

Warren DLS’s lead over the next best team, Grand Rapids FHC, continues to widen. We would favorite the Pilots by almost two touchdowns should the two teams meet today.

Division 3

For the second or third time this season, River Rouge has flipped Detroit MLK for the top spot in D3.

Because of how close they are geographically, and because of the way playoff points are shaking out, these two teams could meet as early as Round 1 of the Playoffs (that’s where Snooze2You has them meeting).

River Rouge has their toughest test of the season this week against D2 #1 Warren DLS. Stay tuned Thursday for our prediction there.

Division 4

No large changes here, except that Whitehall’s lead over South Christian has widened (they are now a 10 point favorite).

This is due to the Sailor’s nail-biter with Wayland this past weekend (South won, 21 - 14).

Division 5

Frankenmuth, Gladwin, and GR Catholic Central continue to hold down the top 3 spots - these teams are all about 10 - 14 points better than the rest of the field.

Gladwin’s win over Pontiac Notre Dame Prep has propelled them over GR Catholic Central - they now sit at #2, with GRCC at #3.

Division 6

Despite West Catholic dropping a game this past weekend to Fruitport, they continue to sit at #3 in D6.

According to the model, D6 is similar to D5 - it’s a three horse race between Constantine, Clinton, and GR West Catholic.

Division 7

The only change to note here is that Lumen Christi has now flipped New Lothrop, a team they lost to in Week 1 by 5 points. This is due to New Lothrop’s loss to Ovid-Elsie this past weekend.

One more thing - in a late schedule change, D7 #1 TC St Francis will play D7 #3 Lawton this week. Look for the spread on that game later this week!

Division 8

The UP bubble has now officially popped - Whiteford is our new #1 in D8. Our model has them as a touchdown favorite over #2 Iron Mountain.

Beyond these two teams, there’s a WIDE gap … the next best team, Centreville, would be a 2 - 3 touchdown underdog against either!

Next Week

Week 8 is shaping up to be a huge week. Here’s where all the best games will be:

Top 5 Games Overall

  • D2 #1 Warren DLS vs. D3 #1 River Rouge

  • D1 #5 West Bloomfield vs. D1 #13 Southfield A&T

  • D1 #9 Clarkston vs. D1 #15 Lapeer

  • D1 #16 Hudsonville vs. D1 #17 East Kentwood

  • D1 #20 Saline vs. D2 #5 Dexter

Top Game in Every Division

  • D1: West Bloomfield vs. Southfield A&T

  • D2: Dexter vs. Saline

  • D3: River Rouge vs. Warren DLS

  • D4: Croswell-Lexington vs. North Branch

  • D5: Detroit Country Day vs. Brother Rice

  • D6: GR West Catholic vs. Coopersville

  • D7: TC St Francis vs. Lawton 

  • D8: Centreville vs. Muskegon Catholic Central

Games Between Undefeated Teams

  • Belleville vs. Livonia Franklin

And that’s all for Week 7, guys! Thanks again for taking the time to read this week’s wrap-up.

Don’t forget to subscribe below so you don’t miss out on our Week 8 preview, which is dropping on Thursday.

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