- Goosepoop
- Posts
- 2024 Girls Basketball Bracket Preview
2024 Girls Basketball Bracket Preview
Projected District / Sweet 16 / Elite 8 / Final 4's for Every Division
And we’re back!
My second straight week with a bracket preview.
This time it’s the Girls Basketball tournament.
Scroll below to find:
The 9 toughest District draws
One division’s incredibly imbalanced quarterfinal
A team rated 30 points better than the #9 team in their division
… and the computer model’s round-by-round favorites to advance!
Story I heard yesterday:
HS Coach: "Every year, I have 1-2 unpaid volunteer assistants on staff. That changed this past year… we switched up some things in our budget, and I was actually able to pay those guys $1-2K each for their help."
Me: "....what was the change?"
HS Coach: "It's funny - we didn't do anything different per se.... we just made sure we weren't paying ridiculous fundraising fees."
Me: "But how? Don't you always pay 20% of what you raise?"
HS Coach: "No - we actually just switched to Teamfi. It's a free app, and we pocketed several thousand dollars extra as a result."
Me: "That's fascinating - was making the switch hard?"
HS Coach: "That's actually the irony - my volunteer assistants were the ones using the app. All they had to do was sit through a 10 minute demo and they were ready to roll."
Goose - does your model really work for girls basketball, too?
I’m not actually 100% sure.
I haven’t backtested my ratings on girls games this year to verify that it accurately predicts at the levels where the other models do.
That said, I’m reasonably confident that it does.
Why?
It works for Football, Baseball, and Boys Basketball, so there’s no reason it doesn’t work here as well.
Plus, having last year’s D1 finalists, West Bloomfield and Rockford, spit out as the #1 and #2 teams, is a nice sanity check.
Psssst…..
If you’re curious how accurate the computer was in predicting the Boys Basketball District Champions, take a look at my Boys Bracket Preview, which dropped last week (before Districts got started):
Tough Draws
We’re gonna start our analysis like we always do:
Lamenting the State’s toughest draws.
This year, we’ve got 9 Districts with multiple teams rated in the top 10 by the computer model:
Division 1
District 6: #5 Grand Haven, #7 West Ottawa
District 7: #4 East Kentwood, #8 Byron Center
District 16: #3 Belleville, #10 Wayne Memorial
Division 2
District 44: #6 West Catholic, #10 Catholic Central
District 50: #5 Chelsea, #9 Haslett
Division 3
District 69: #6 Sanford Meridian, #9 Hemlock
District 87: #1 Arbor Prep, #2 Grass Lake
Division 4
District 99: #1 Ishpeming, #5 Baraga
District 113: #3 Fowler, #4 Portland St Patrick 4
District 7 in Division 1 really takes the cake, though.
Here it is from top to bottom:
#4 East Kentwood
#8 Byron Center
#13 Hudsonville
#31 Wyoming
#44 Grandville
#65 Jenison
That’s not only 3 top 13 teams…
… but also every team rated in the top third of D1!
Plus, teams like #13 Hudsonville & #31 Wyoming will play each other Wednesday night in Round 2.
If the bracket were seeded according to me, they’d both be projected District Champs and playing 2 rounds later!
Some Quick Bracket Thoughts
D4 = UP Power
The Upper Peninsula dominates my D4 girls basketball computer rankings:
#1 Ishpeming
#5 Baraga
#7 Lake Linden
#11 Ewen-Trout Creek
#13 Munising
#14 Hancock
#16 Carney-Nadeau
#17 St Ignace
That’s:
8 of the top 20
3 of the top 10
2 of the top 5
AND the #1 overall team, Ishpeming.
Will the UP take home the title this year?
D3 = One Weak Quarterfinal
You saw above that the computer’s top 2 D3 teams will meet in a District Final.
But that’s not where it ends: there’s also one *highly imbalanced* quarterfinal:
Quarterfinal 12 has no team rated higher than #49 overall (Millington).
Is this an issue with the bracket, or an issue with my model?
Long time readers will know we’ve had issues properly rating Thumb-area teams in the past, due to a lack of games being played by teams within that region against teams from outside that region (don’t want to bore my new readers with it, but you can email me back if you want to learn more).
The thing is, we won’t be able to verify the answer to this until the Final Four - if it’s true, look for a lopsided win in that side of the bracket’s semifinal.
D2 = Most Competitive
From a computer model perspective, this is the biggest toss-up division:
#1 Detroit Edison
#2 AA Gabriel Richard
#3 Detroit Country Day
#4 Lansing Catholic
#5 Chelsea
#6 West Catholic
#7 Tecumseh
#8 Frankenmuth
#9 Haslett
Just 11 points separates team #1 vs team #9 here.
And team #8 (Frankenmuth) just beat team #1 (Edison) this past week.
Compare this to the points that separate teams #1 and #9 in other divisions:
Division 1: 30 points
Division 3: 15 points
Division 4: 24 points
D1 = Biggest ‘Lock’?
Did you see my stat in the line above?
Yes: the computer is telling me that Division 1’s top team, West Bloomfield, is far and away the best team in Division 1.
So much so that they’re a whopping 30 points better than team #9 in D1.
Will this play out in the bracket?
We’ll see…. as we saw in football this year, crazy ‘computer’ upsets can and do happen!!!!
Will we have an undefeated Champ?
We’re rolling into the postseason with 3 undefeated teams. That’s 2 less compared to the boys bracket.
D2 #2 AA Gabriel Richard
D2 #13 Orchard Lake
D2 #14 Goodrich
But this is a bit different than the boys, in that one of our undefeated teams is *projected* to at least make the finals (#2 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard).
$106,782.67
That's the amount of fees my FREE fundraising tool (Teamfi) has saved teams since I launched it 10 months ago.
Why are you still paying fees to fundraise?
Head to my website to stop.
The Brackets Themselves
Again, Goose… the jibber jabber. Just show me your projected brackets!!!!
Ok, here’s the links to the official brackets:
And below are my computer’s projected round-by-round winners:
Division 1
District Champs
#87 Bloomfield Hills
#50 Stoney Creek
#28 Macomb Dakota
#53 Utica Ford
#11 Grand Banc
#15 Howell
#22 Clarkston
#73 Lakeland
#17 Holt
#9 DeWitt
#21 Portage Central
#18 Coldwater
#3 Belleville
#48 Novi
#29 Dexter
#30 Canton
#36 Traverse City Central
#16 Dow
#43 Saginaw Heritage
#2 Rockford
#12 Lowell
#4 East Kentwood
#32 Forest Hills Northern
#5 Grand Haven
#37 Cass Tech
#51 Fordson
#24 Bedford
#88 Riverview
#45 Grosse Pointe North
#80 Royal Oak
#6 Renaissance
#1 West Bloomfield
Sweet Sixteen
#50 Stoney Creek
#28 Macomb Dakota
#11 Grand Banc
#22 Clarkston
#9 DeWitt
#18 Coldwater
#3 Belleville
#29 Dexter
#16 Dow
#2 Rockford
#4 East Kentwood
#5 Grand Haven
#37 Cass Tech
#24 Bedford
#45 Grosse Pointe North
#1 West Bloomfield
Elite Eight
#28 Macomb Dakota
#11 Grand Banc
#9 DeWitt
#3 Belleville
#2 Rockford
#4 East Kentwood
#24 Bedford
#1 West Bloomfield
Final Four
#11 Grand Banc
#3 Belleville
#2 Rockford
#1 West Bloomfield
Championship
#3 Belleville
#1 West Bloomfield
Champion
#1 West Bloomfield
Division 2
District Champs
#11 Negaunee
#38 Petoskey
#31 Hart
#76 Clare
#43 Belding
#16 Powers Catholic
#8 Frankenmuth
#20 Freeland
#64 Harper Woods
#83 Warren Fitzgerald
#1 Edison
#3 Country Day
#41 Armada
#14 Goodrich
#30 Regina
#13 Orchard Lake St Mary’s
#6 West Catholic
#25 Unity
#21 Spring Lake
#40 Grant
#12 Vicksburg
#26 Edwardsburg
#19 Holland Christian
#33 Otsego
#7 Tecumseh
#18 Parma Western
#4 Lansing Catholic
#5 Chelsea
#29 Redford Westfield
#2 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
#56 Airport
#73 Divine Child
Sweet Sixteen
#11 Negaunee
#31 Hart
#16 Powers Catholic
#8 Frankenmuth
#64 Harper Woods
#1 Edison
#14 Goodrich
#13 Orchard Lake St Mary’s
#6 West Catholic
#21 Spring Lake
#12 Vicksburg
#19 Holland Christian
#7 Tecumseh
#4 Lansing Catholic
#2 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
#56 Airport
Elite Eight
#11 Negaunee
#8 Frankenmuth
#1 Edison
#13 Orchard Lake St Mary’s
#6 West Catholic
#12 Vicksburg
#4 Lansing Catholic
#2 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
Final Four
#8 Frankenmuth
#1 Edison
#6 West Catholic
#2 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
Championship
#1 Edison
#2 Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard
Champion
#1 Edison
Division 3
District Champs
#27 Pewamo Westphalia
#20 Covenant
#80 North Muskegon
#13 Kent City
#32 Bronson
#8 Kalamazoo Christian
#74 Watervliet
#3 Brandywine
#34 Westwood
#12 Bark River Harris
#10 Elk Rapids
#53 Oscoda
#25 Manton
#7 Lake City
#6 Meridian
#16 Morley Stanwood
#102 New Haven
#61 Bishop Foley
#114 Detroit Communication & Media Arts
#103 Liggett
#72 Harbor Beach
#59 Sandusky
#135 Byron
#49 Millington
#47 Jonesville
#11 Michigan Center
#4 Ovid Elsie
#17 Stockbridge
#81 Cabrini
#1 Arbor Prep
#22 Columbia Central
#5 Blissfield
Sweet Sixteen
#20 Covenant
#13 Kent City
#8 Kalamazoo Christian
#3 Brandywine
#12 Bark River Harris
#10 Elk Rapids
#7 Lake City
#6 Meridian
#61 Bishop Foley
#103 Liggett
#59 Sandusky
#49 Millington
#11 Michigan Center
#4 Ovid Elsie
#1 Arbor Prep
#5 Blissfield
Elite Eight
#13 Kent City
#3 Brandywine
#10 Elk Rapids
#6 Meridian
#61 Bishop Foley
#49 Millington
#4 Ovid Elsie
#1 Arbor Prep
Final Four
#3 Brandywine
#6 Meridian
#49 Millington
#1 Arbor Prep
Championship
#3 Brandywine
#1 Arbor Prep
Champion
#1 Arbor Prep
Division 4
District Champs
#11 Ewen-Trout Creek
#7 Lake Linden
#1 Ishpeming
#15 Carney-Nadeau
#13 Munising
#35 Brimley
#17 St Ignace
#52 Rogers City
#31 Climax-Scotts
#25 Gobles
#3 Fowler
#82 Tri-Unity
#8 Concord
#6 Colon
#85 St Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic
#18 Mendon
#15 Frankfort
#10 Lake Leelanau St Mary
#32 Mio
#39 Gaylord St Mary
#61 Bay City All Saints
#24 Breckenridge
#27 Brethren
#21 Mt Pleasant Sacred Heart
#43 Allen Park IC Baptist
#81 Lutheran Westland
#9 Morenci
#22 Summerfield
#51 Deckerville
#2 Kingston
#91 Parkway Christian
#19 Everest
Sweet Sixteen
#7 Lake Linden
#1 Ishpeming
#13 Munising
#17 St Ignace
#25 Gobles
#3 Fowler
#6 Colon
#18 Mendon
#10 Lake Leelanau St Mary
#32 Mio
#24 Breckenridge
#21 Mt Pleasant Sacred Heart
#43 Allen Park IC Baptist
#9 Morenci
#2 Kingston
#19 Everest
Elite Eight
#1 Ishpeming
#13 Munising
#3 Fowler
#6 Colon
#10 Lake Leelanau St Mary
#21 Mt Pleasant Sacred Heart
#9 Morenci
#2 Kingston
Final Four
#1 Ishpeming
#3 Fowler
#10 Lake Leelanau St Mary
#2 Kingston
Championship
#1 Ishpeming
#2 Kingston
Champion
#1 Ishpeming
That’s all for today guys!
If you like this type of content and want to receive more, subscribe to my list right here: