2024 Boys Basketball Bracket Preview

I cannot resist a good bracket.

And we’ve got four to break down today.

I’m diving deep into the MHSAA Boys Basketball State Tournament, which starts on Monday.

Scroll below to find out my computer model’s projections, and get the answers to the following:

• Just how accurate can we expect these projections to be?

• Does the MPR work?

• Who got the toughest draw?

• Which division has the most *messed up* bracket?

Let’s jump in!

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How accurate is your stuff, Goose?

This is a fair question.

Short answer: it is by no means perfect.

Long answer: on average, my model predicts around 78-80% of high school basketball games correctly.

Last year, this translated into picking half of the 16 final four teams correctly.

To see who we specifically missed on, you can click the link below to read 2023’s preview guide:

My High-Level Take on MPR

Before we get into the picks themselves, I thought I’d offer the following take on MPR:

There are only two top 10 boys basketball teams scheduled to play in the opening round of the tournament Monday night.

The rest have byes / won't play until Wednesday.

So from that standpoint, the MPR worked pretty well this year?

(D1 #10 Hudsonville, D2 #4 South Christian are the teams, by the way).

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You gotta beat everyone

There is only one response a man can have in the face of a tough draw:

“You gotta beat everyone to be the Champ”

I say this in jest….. there’s really no good response. It sucks no matter what you say.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t take a look at them!

Here’s this year’s toughest draw:

• Lenawee Christian (D4 #2) vs. Petersburg Summerfield (D4 #8)

They meet on Wednesday in a R2 game.

They *should* be meeting in a quarterfinal, 4 rounds later.

Winner will get D4 #11 Britton Deerfield (most likely).

What a path!!!

Other Tough Draws

Lenawee Christian and Petersburg Summerfield aren’t alone.

There are several other tough draws elsewhere:

D1, District 7

• #9 East Kentwood, #10 Hudsonville

• Throw Byron Center and Grandville into this mix, and you’ve got a strong contender for the State’s most ‘top-heavy’ district

D2, District 59

• #3 Warren Lincoln, #5 Ferndale

• The only top 10 team these teams will face before the final is each other

D2, District 45

• #2 GR Christian, #4 South Christian, #8 Unity Christian

• This is the only district with 3 top 10 teams

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Which Division’s Bracket is Most Balanced?

This year it’s Division 1.

If the Computer Model favorites win, here’s how the quarterfinals will look:

• #1 OLSM vs. #2 Brother Rice

• #6 East Lansing vs. #7 DCC

• #3 Muskegon vs. #9 EK

• #5 Dearborn vs. #4 UDJ

7 of the 8 highest rated teams can make the quarterfinals, with the 8th team in (East Kentwood) rated #9.

This does not happen often with our current geographic approach to seeding!

(Also, should note - if this happens, we’d have 4 CHSL Central quarterfinalists. Someone with more historical knowledge should let me know when the last time that has happened).

What about the other Divisions?

A few thoughts on this:

1.) Division 2 has one crazy quarterfinal

• #2 GR Christian

• #4 South Christian

• #6 Benton Harbor

• #7 GR Catholic Central

• #8 Unity Christian

• #10 Whitehall

All 6 of these teams are in the same Quarterfinal - if seeded properly, only 2-3 would be.

2.) Eight of D2’s top 10 teams are on one side of the bracket

…. and on the other side, the only other top 10 teams (#3 Warren Lincoln and #5 Ferndale) are in the same DISTRICT!

3.) Division 4 will have at least one team rated #32+ in the Elite Eight

Division 4, Region 30 has no team rated higher than #32

That means this year’s D4 Elite Eight will have at least one team rated by our computer as #32 (or worse).

Shoutout our undefeated teams

We ended the Regular Season with 5 undefeated teams:

• D1: #5 Dearborn

• D2: #10 Whitehall

• D3: #6 Laingsburg, #15 North Muskegon, #33 Chesaning

Of the 5, our model predicts either Dearborn or Laingsburg has the best shot at running the table.

Both will be favored in every game until the quarters, where Dearborn will likely meet #4 UD Jesuit (pick ‘em), and Laingsburg will likely meet #2 Gabriel Richard (6 point underdog).

If they win there, Dearborn will most likely have to pull upsets over #3 Muskegon (1 point underdog) and #1 Orchard Lake (8 point underdog). The combined probability of these 3 straight upsets is around 7%.

Laingsburg’s path post quarters is a tad easier: they would most likely be favored over #7 Old Redford (1 point favorite), and then need an upset over #1 Schoolcraft (7 point underdog). Their combined probability of this path (assuming they make the quarters) is about 6%.

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Because I don’t like the profit-sharing model of youth sports fundraising.

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The Brackets Themselves

Ok, Goose: enough with the jabber. Let’s get to the brackets.

Here’s the link to the MHSAA Site where you can see the *actual brackets*.

And here’s each Division’s Round-by-Round winners, assuming *ONLY* my computer model’s favorites win:

Division 1

District Champs

• #39 Waterford Mott

• #20 Davison

• #1 Orchard Lake

• #65 Howell

• #45 Port Huron Northern

• #64 Chip Valley

• #2 Brother Rice

• #40 Utica

• #6 East Lansing

• #30 Waverly

• #42 Kzoo Central

• #68 BC Lakeview

• #29 Belleville

• #37 Wayne Memorial

• #11 Ann Arbor Huron

• #7 DCC

• #83 TC West

• #52 Cadillac

• #16 Heritage

• #3 Muskegon

• #25 Forest Hills Central

• #9 East Kentwood

• #23 Zeeland West

• #13 Rockford

• #19 Cass Tech

• #5 Dearborn

• #115 Woodhaven

• #114 Lincoln Park

• #8 North Farmington

• #55 Groves

• #4 UD Jesuit

• #12 De La Salle

Sweet 16

• #20 Davison

• #1 Orchard Lake

• #45 Port Huron Northern

• #2 Brother Rice

• #6 East Lansing

• #42 Kzoo Central

• #29 Belleville

• #7 DCC

• #52 Cadillac

• #3 Muskegon

• #9 East Kentwood

• #13 Rockford

• #5 Dearborn

• #114 Lincoln Park

• #8 North Farmington

• #4 UD Jesuit

Elite Eight

• #1 Orchard Lake

• #2 Brother Rice

• #6 East Lansing

• #7 DCC

• #3 Muskegon

• #9 East Kentwood

• #5 Dearborn

• #4 UD Jesuit

Final Four

• #1 Orchard Lake

• #6 East Lansing

• #3 Muskegon

• #4 UD Jesuit

Championship

• #1 Orchard Lake

• #3 Muskegon

Champion

• #1 Orchard Lake

Division 2

District Champs

• #23 Kingsford

• #87 Sault Ste Marie

• #34 Ludington

• #112 Standish Sterling

• #99 Alma

• #11 Flint Powers

• #19 Saginaw

• #12 Arthur Hill

• #54 Redford Union

• #3 Warren Lincoln

• #15 Detroit Edison

• #45 Harper Woods

• #95 St Clair

• #38 Kearsley

• #61 Country Day

• #16 Notre Dame Prep

• #48 Portland

• #7 GR Catholic Central

• #44 Sparta

• #10 Whitehall

• #6 Benton Harbor

• #43 Otsego

• #2 GR Christian

• #20 Holland Christian

• #18 Adrian

• #60 Marshall

• #14 Lansing Sexton

• #9 Chelsea

• #13 University Prep

• #1 Summit Academy

• #53 Dundee

• #29 Robichaud

Sweet Sixteen

• #23 Kingsford

• #34 Ludington

• #11 Flint Powers

• #12 Arthur Hill

• #3 Warren Lincoln

• #15 Detroit Edison

• #38 Kearsley

• #16 Notre Dame Prep

• #7 GR Catholic Central

• #10 Whitehall

• #6 Benton Harbor

• #2 GR Christian

• #18 Adrian

• #9 Chelsea

• #1 Summit Academy

• #29 Robichaud

Elite Eight

• #23 Kingsford

• #11 Flint Powers

• #3 Warren Lincoln

• #16 Notre Dame Prep

• #7 GR Catholic Central

• #2 GR Christian

• #9 Chelsea

• #1 Summit Academy

Final Four

• #11 Flint Powers

• #3 Warren Lincoln

• #2 GR Christian

• #1 Summit Academy

Championship

• #3 Warren Lincoln

• #1 Summit Academy

Champion

• #1 Summit Academy

Division 3

District Champs

• #74 Saugatuck

• #3 Covenant Christian

• #10 Pewamo-Westphalia

• #15 North Muskegon

• #43 Centreville

• #4 Niles Brandywine

• #1 Schoolcraft

• #14 Watervliet

• #18 Jeffers

• #5 Iron Mountain

• #30 Elk Rapids

• #101 Roscommon

• #65 Ithaca

• #12 McBain

• #20 Sanford Meridian

• #48 Beal City

• #9 New Haven

• #7 Old Redford

• #72 Detroit Northwestern

• #11 Loyola

• #110 Sandusky

• #41 Cass City

• #21 Flint New Standard

• #19 Beecher

• #32 Concord

• #8 Lumen Christi

• #33 Chesaning

• #6 Laingsburg

• #2 Riverview Gabriel Richard

• #42 Plymouth Christian Academy

• #25 Ottawa Lake Whiteford

• #16 Arbor Prep

Sweet Sixteen

• #3 Covenant Christian

• #10 Pewamo-Westphalia

• #4 Niles Brandywine

• #1 Schoolcraft

• #5 Iron Mountain

• #30 Elk Rapids

• #12 McBain

• #20 Sanford Meridian

• #7 Old Redford

• #11 Loyola

• #41 Cass City

• #19 Beecher

• #8 Lumen Christi

• #6 Laingsburg

• #2 Riverview Gabriel Richard

• #16 Arbor Prep

Elite Eight

• #3 Covenant Christian

• #1 Schoolcraft

• #5 Iron Mountain

• #12 McBain

• #7 Old Redford

• #19 Beecher

• #6 Laingsburg

• #2 Riverview Gabriel Richard

Final Four

• #1 Schoolcraft

• #5 Iron Mountain

• #7 Old Redford

• #2 Riverview Gabriel Richard

Championship

• #1 Schoolcraft

• #2 Riverview Gabriel Richard

Champion

• #1 Schoolcraft

Division 4

District Champs

• #57 Ewen Trout Creek

• #21 Lake Linden

• #4 Crystal Falls Forest Park

• #56 Powers North Central

• #14 Munising

• #18 Rudyard

• #10 St Ignace

• #27 Onaway

• #40 BC St Phillip

• #72 Gobles

• #6 Fowler

• #1 Tri Unity

• #70 Pittsford

• #33 Hillsdale Academy

• #32 MI Lutheran

• #34 Marcellus Christian

• #43 Buckley

• #13 MC Glen Lake

• #66 Hillman

• #31 Bellaire

• #3 Nouvel

• #9 Mt Pleasant Sacred Heart

• #39 Baldwin

• #42 Fruitport Calvary Christian

• #44 Brighton Livingston Christian

• #16 Detroit Douglass

• #2 Lenawee Christian

• #5 Taylor Trillium

• #49 Ubly

• #36 Kingston

• #15 Oakland Christian

• #7 Genesee Christian

Sweet 16

• #21 Lake Linden

• #4 Crystal Falls Forest Park

• #14 Munising

• #10 St Ignace

• #40 BC St Phillip

• #1 Tri Unity

• #33 Hillsdale Academy

• #32 MI Lutheran

• #13 MC Glen Lake

• #31 Bellaire

• #3 Nouvel

• #39 Baldwin

• #16 Detroit Douglass

• #2 Lenawee Christian

• #36 Kingston

• #7 Genesee Christian

Elite Eight

• #4 Crystal Falls Forest Park

• #10 St Ignace

• #1 Tri Unity

• #32 MI Lutheran

• #13 MC Glen Lake

• #3 Nouvel

• #2 Lenawee Christian

• #7 Genesee Christian

Final Four

• #4 Crystal Falls Forest Park

• #1 Tri Unity

• #3 Nouvel

• #2 Lenawee Christian

Championship

• #1 Tri Unity

• #2 Lenawee Christian

Champion

• #1 Tri Unity

That’s all for today, guys!

We’ll be back next week with a preview guide for the Girls Tournament.

Subscribe below to get that one!!!