2024 Baseball Bracket Preview

Round-by-round win probabilities for all 4 divisions

May 28, 2024

Hey guys -

It’s been a bit, but I’m back with this year’s High School Baseball Bracket Guide.

I’m a bit pressed on time, so this one will be a tad abbreviated - we’re rolling with just one section today, the bracket projections themselves.

That said, I’m hoping this year’s projections will be a bit higher-value than normal: instead of showing the brackets in a ‘favorites win’ scenario, I’m actually going to show you one level up from that.

What is ‘one level up’?

It’s my playoff simulator.

Goosepoop Pro subscribers will recognize this simulator, as it’s exactly the data that’s been available to them all season long. This simulator doesn’t just take into account which team is favorited… it also takes into account each team’s probability of winning.

That’s an important distinction to make when you’re projecting a bracket, because even though a team might be ‘favorited’ to win, their probability of winning might only be 51/49. Compare that to a team that’s much worse but is on the other side of the bracket with a 99/1 probability of winning their game, and you can see why the simulator *might* counterintuitively assign the second team a higher odds of winning the State Title.

Alright - hopefully that word salad makes sense. If there’s any questions on that, feel free to email me here by replying, and I’ll answer any questions you might have.

Let’s jump in…

The Brackets Themselves

As you may know, the early rounds of Districts have already started.

To view up-to-date game results & brackets, head to the MHSAA website right here.

A little over a year ago, I launched a new product (Teamfi) on this newsletter

I did it to help my Dad.

He's a HS football coach, and he hated that when his team ran an online fundraiser, his team’s donations were taxed 20% by a 3rd party.

So Teamfi was my swing at helping him out.

Division 4 Projections

District Champs (probability of occurring)

  • Portland St Pat’s (51%)

  • Lansing Christian (86%)

  • Beal City (50%)

  • Merrill (73%)

  • Maple City Glen Lake (98%)

  • Marion (89%)

  • Bear Lake (67%)

  • Muskegon Catholic Central (60%)

  • Camden Frontier (95%)

  • Summerfield (84%)

  • Vermontville Maple Valley (92%)

  • Concord (50%)

  • Three Oaks River Valley (50%)

  • Hackett Catholic (97%)

  • Byron Center Zion Christian (68%)

  • Marcellus (76%)

  • Riverview Gabriel Richard (97%)

  • Plymouth Christian Academy (95%)

  • Cardinal Mooney (94%)

  • Shrine Catholic (41%)

  • Ubly (98%)

  • All Saints (68%)

  • Brown City (41%)

  • Everest (37%)

  • Onaway (52%)

  • Alcona (98%)

  • East Jordan (74%)

  • Indian River Inland Lakes (88%)

  • Jeffers (85%)

  • Norway (98%)

  • Rudyard (59%)

  • Harbor Springs Harbor Light Christian (74%)

Regional Finalists

  • Portland St Pat’s (44%)

  • Beal City (47%)

  • Maple City Glen Lake (91%)

  • Muskegon Catholic Central (59%)

  • Summerfield (69%)

  • Vermontville Maple Valley (73%)

  • Hackett Catholic (89%)

  • Marcellus (59%)

  • Riverview Gabriel Richard (51%)

  • Cardinal Mooney (93%)

  • Ubly (68%)

  • Brown City (29%)

  • Alcona (53%)

  • Indian River Inland Lakes (77%)

  • Norway (67%)

  • Rudyard (51%)

Quarterfinalists

  • Beal City (26%)

  • Maple City Glen Lake (57%)

  • Vermontville Maple Valley (59%)

  • Hackett Catholic (78%)

  • Cardinal Mooney (71%)

  • Ubly (62%)

  • Indian River Inland Lakes (69%)

  • Norway (52%)

Semifinalists

  • Beal City (23%)

  • Hackett Catholic (56%)

  • Cardinal Mooney (64%)

  • Norway (38%)

Finalists

  • Beal City (18%)

  • Cardinal Mooney (59%)

Champ

  • Cardinal Mooney (44%)

Division 3 Projections

District Champs

  • TC St Francis (45%)

  • Hart (38%)

  • Sanford Meridian (34%)

  • Pine River (40%)

  • Negaunee (38%)

  • Gladstone (85%)

  • Charlevoix (74%)

  • Grayling (70%)

  • Grass Lake (75%)

  • Lumen Christi (62%)

  • Pewamo-Westphalia (71%)

  • Lansing Catholic (49%)

  • North Muskegon (98%)

  • Clare (86%)

  • Calvin Christian (38%)

  • Holland Black River (92%)

  • Bullock Creek (41%)

  • Cass City (88%)

  • Burton Bentley (36%)

  • Chesaning (55%)

  • Jalen Rose (50%)

  • Edison (99%)

  • Foley (81%)

  • Algonac (62%)

  • SMCC (71%)

  • Clinton (63%)

  • Brooklyn Columbia Central (52%)

  • Blissfield (40%)

  • Schoolcraft (51%)

  • Brandywine (55%)

  • Kalamazoo Christian (94%)

  • Quincy (25%)

Regional Finalists

  • TC St Francis (42%)

  • Sanford Meridian (26%)

  • Gladstone (42%)

  • Charlevoix (71%)

  • Lumen Christi (55%)

  • Pewamo-Westphalia (42%)

  • North Muskegon (73%)

  • Calvin Christian (38%)

  • Cass City (34%)

  • Chesaning (54%)

  • Edison (99%)

  • Algonac (55%)

  • SMCC (40%)

  • Brooklyn Columbia Central (29%)

  • Schoolcraft (36%)

  • Kalamazoo Christian (92%)

Quarter Finalists

  • TC St Francis (29%)

  • Charlevoix (56%)

  • Lumen Christi (45%)

  • North Muskegon (72%)

  • Chesaning (32%)

  • Edison (66%)

  • SMCC (20%)

  • Kalamazoo Christian (54%)

Semi Finalists

  • Charlevoix (36%)

  • North Muskegon (45%)

  • Edison (54%)

  • Kalamazoo Christian (35%)

Finalists

  • North Muskegon (39%)

  • Edison (34%)

Champ

  • North Muskegon (26%)

Division 2 Projections

District Champs

  • Williamston (87%)

  • Mason (35%)

  • Powers (59%)

  • Frankenmuth (41%)

  • Hazel Park (85%)

  • Country Day (33%)

  • Armada (24%)

  • North Branch (79%)

  • Detroit Southeastern (52%)

  • Liggett (95%)

  • Annapolis (52%)

  • Divine Child (99%)

  • Chelsea (61%)

  • Adrian (62%)

  • Airport (50%)

  • Southgate (48%)

  • Sparta (83%)

  • EGR (31%)

  • Big Rapids (45%)

  • Spring Lake (34%)

  • Sault Ste Marie (42%)

  • Petoskey (47%)

  • Standish Sterling (44%)

  • Swan Valley (88%)

  • Battle Creek Harper Creek (79%)

  • Portland (36%)

  • Vicksburg (46%)

  • Gull Lake (83%)

  • GR Christian (91%)

  • South Christian (57%)

  • Holland Christian (67%)

  • Lakeshore (48%)

Regional Finalists

  • Williamston (69%)

  • Powers (55%)

  • Country Day (33%)

  • North Branch (54%)

  • Liggett (95%)

  • Divine Child (97%)

  • Adrian (39%)

  • Airport (36%)

  • EGR (28%)

  • Spring Lake (29%)

  • Petoskey (26%)

  • Swan Valley (48%)

  • Battle Creek Harper Creek (52%)

  • Gull Lake (42%)

  • GR Christian (63%)

  • Lakeshore (35%)

Quarter Finalists

  • Williamston (40%)

  • Country Day (24%)

  • Divine Child (72%)

  • Airport (30%)

  • EGR (20%)

  • Swan Valley (43%)

  • Gull Lake (31%)

  • GR Christian (40%)

Semi Finalists

  • Williamston (24%)

  • Divine Child (36%)

  • Swan Valley (25%)

  • GR Christian (25%)

Finalists

  • Divine Child (18%)

  • GR Christian (14%)

Champ

  • Divine Child (10%)

Division 1 Projections

District Champs

  • Jenison (45%)

  • Mattawan (68%)

  • Byron Center (76%)

  • Forest Hills Central (77%)

  • Mount Pleasant (61%)

  • Bay City Western (57%)

  • Kenowa Hills (40%)

  • Rockford (69%)

  • Northville (52%)

  • White Lake Lakeland (52%)

  • Ypsi Lincoln (29%)

  • Churchill (43%)

  • Okemos (51%)

  • BC Lakeview (82%)

  • Hartland (29%)

  • Dexter (40%)

  • Grand Blanc (52%)

  • Flushing (58%)

  • Anchor Bay (51%)

  • Rochester Adams (29%)

  • Grosse Pointe South (69%)

  • De La Salle (87%)

  • Sterling Heights Stevenson (46%)

  • Dakota (62%)

  • Brother Rice (89%)

  • OLSM (95%)

  • UD Jesuit (99%)

  • Troy (40%)

  • Woodhaven (86%)

  • Edsel Ford (43%)

  • Allen Park (86%)

  • Cass Tech (98%)

Regional Finalists

  • Mattawan (37%)

  • Byron Center (45%)

  • Bay City Western (40%)

  • Rockford (64%)

  • Northville (43%)

  • Churchill (37%)

  • BC Lakeview (45%)

  • Dexter (20%)

  • Grand Blanc (33%)

  • Anchor Bay (28%)

  • De La Salle (50%)

  • Dakota (34%)

  • Brother Rice (80%)

  • UD Jesuit (55%)

  • Woodhaven (81%)

  • Allen Park (74%)

Quarter Finalists

  • Mattawan (23%)

  • Rockford (43%)

  • Northville (39%)

  • BC Lakeview (18%)

  • Grand Blanc (18%)

  • Dakota (29%)

  • Brother Rice (74%)

  • Woodhaven (50%)

Semi Finalists

  • Rockford (27%)

  • Northville (29%)

  • Dakota (19%)

  • Brother Rice (71%)

Finalists

  • Northville (18%)

  • Brother Rice (64%)

Champ

  • Brother Rice (53%)

That’s all for 2024’s guide, guys! Thanks for giving this a read.

If you want to comment / have a question, please feel free to reply to this email.

Love,

Goose