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2023 MHSAA Football Semi Finals Preview
Belleville / Davison, FHC / Zeeland West, GRCC / Frankenmuth, & More
Hi Everyone -
Goosepoop #86 is here!
Here’s the lineup for today’s note:
Feature Game: This week’s biggest game
Undefeated Matchup: There’s just one game between 12-0 teams this week. Who’s expected to win?
Undefeated No More? Two undefeated teams are projected to lose to non-undefeated teams this round. Will it happen?
Pick’ Em Game: The closest game in the State this week is a 2 point spread
Over / Under Superlatives: Which game will have the most points?
8-Man Finals: Who will be our two 8-man State Champs?
3 Upsets? Two teams are going for their 3rd total upset in the Playoffs. Will either prevail?
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GLSFB Podcast - Semi & State Finals Preview
If this newsletter isn’t enough for you, I highly recommend you check out the latest Great Lakes State Football podcast (it just dropped on Wednesday).
We not only discussed projections for each of this week’s games…
… we also gave our projections for next round, too!
Week 12 Feature Game
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-1) vs. Frankenmuth (11-1)
Full disclosure: I chose this game because it didn’t fit any of my other sections down below.
That said, I still think this game is very interesting: GRCC is riding a high after prevailing over their arch-rival in a game that had a season-long buildup. Do the Cougars have it in them to get ‘up’ in back-to-back weeks?
It’s not like they haven’t done it before: they’ve played Frankenmuth thrice in the playoffs, prevailing each time. BUT, this year’s ‘Muth team flies under the radar, given the fanfare around this year’s other D5 teams (GRCC, West Catholic, Corunna, and Notre Dame Prep). Add to that the fact that it’s a sneaky close point spread, and I think this game has potential to surprise some people.
Spread: GRCC -7
Win Probability: 59% GRCC
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Someone Has To Lose
Belleville (12-0) vs. Davison (12-0)
This is where everyone’s eyes will be this week. It’s the only matchup between undefeated teams in the State (save for 8-man), and its also the two best remaining teams squaring off.
Do you believe the point spread? Like I said on the GLSFB podcast, Belleville is a bit difficult to predict: they’ve had a running clock in 10 out of 12 games, so you can’t *really* use those game results as information in the model.
But then again, the Tigers did have a close result in Week 1 against Rouge.
Add to that Davison’s impressive victory as a 17 point underdog last week (they won by 14, making that a 31 point swing), and perhaps our projection makes sense.
Spread: Belleville -8
Win Probability: 61% Belleville
Undefeated No More?
There are 12 undefeated teams left in the State.
At least two are guaranteed to lose this weekend (the loser of Belleville / Davison & Marion / Lenawee Christian).
If our computer model’s right, two more will also fall off:
North Muskegon (12-0) vs. Menominee (11-1)
Spread: Menominee -14
Win Probability: 79% Menominee
Fun fact: North Muskegon has been an underdog three times now (District Finals vs. Lawton and Regional Finals vs. Pewamo-Westphalia are the two others). So take this with a grain of salt.
Millington (12-0) vs. Lumen Christi (11-1)
Spread: Lumen Christi -23
Win Probability: 89% Lumen Christi
Fun Fact: at just 36 points, Millington / Lumen Christi is the lowest over/under in the State this week.
You could make an argument that this is *THE BEST* game in the State this week.
For starters, FHC and Zeeland West have been rated #1 & #2 in D3 all year long. So, according to me, this is the de-facto D3 State Championship.
Sprinkle in the point spread, and this gets even juicier: we have FHC by 2, making this the closest projected Semi Final in the State.
Forest Hills Central (11-1) vs. Zeeland West (9-3)
Spread: FHC -2
Win Probability: 52% FHC
Over / Under Superlatives
Lowest Over / Under
Highest Over / Under
(there’s a 2-way tie)
Kingsley (10-2) vs. Reed City (9-3)
Spread: Kingsley -18
Win Probability: 83% Kingsley
De La Salle (10-2) vs. Waterford Mott (10-2)
Spread: De La Salle -21
Win Probability: 87% De La Salle
8 Man Finals
Martin (10-2) vs. Inland Lakes (11-1)
Spread: Martin -20
Marion (11-0) vs. Lenawee Christian (12-0)
Spread: PICK ‘EM
How fun is that? Not only does the 8-man D2 Championship feature the two highest rated teams in the division, it’s also projected as a 50/50 toss-up. Make sure to tune in if you’re free.
Outside of North Muskegon, only Ovid-Elsie has pulled upsets in 2 of their 3 playoff games.
Do the Marauders have it in them again?
Almont (11-1) vs. Ovid-Elsie (8-4)
Spread: Almont -15
Win Probability: 80% Almont
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That’s all for today guys!
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We’ll be back next week with our State Finals Preview!