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2023 MHSAA Football Pre-Districts Preview

Six Top 10 Matchups, 3 Undefeated Teams Projected to Lose

October 26, 2023

Hi Everyone -

Goosepoop #83 is here!

Here’s the lineup for today’s note:

  • Feature Games: projections for the week’s biggest games

  • Two Rounds Too Soon: projections for games that should be happening two weeks from now

  • Undefeated Matchups: projections for the week’s undefeated matchups

  • Undefeated No More: other games where undefeated teams are expected to lose

  • Pick’ Em Games: games where each side has an equal chance of winning

  • Over / Under Superlatives: games with the highest (and lowest) projected point totals

  • Coach’s Poll: the Week 9 Coach’s Poll is out!

3rd Annual Playoff Preview Guide

My 3rd Annual Playoff Preview Guide just dropped on Tuesday.

Within, you’ll find analysis on:

  • The Brackets: 2023 Playoff Brackets for all 10 Divisions

  • Snubbed: Who missed the playoffs but deserved to be there?

  • Superlatives: The top team in each division, across a number of categories

  • Strongest & Weakest Districts: Which district in each division is strongest? How about weakest?

  • Final 4 Projections: Projections for each bracket’s Final 4

Check it out by clicking below!!!

If you’d rather listen, you can also check out my commentary on the latest episode of the GLSFB Podcast, which just dropped yesterday:

Week 9 Feature Games

East Grand Rapids (7-2) vs. Coopersville (7-2)

Did you know that EGR has the #3 rated defense in the State this year? How about the fact that Coopersville is the only team to come close to defeating D5 #1 West Catholic?

Those facts alone should be enough to turn your attention to this game, but I’ll give you one better. EGR and Coopersville are rated #5 and #3 in D3 by our computer model, meaning this game is almost certainly happening two rounds too soon.

Caledonia (7-2) vs. Portage Northern (8-1)

Last year’s D1 Runner-Up squares off with D2’s top-rated offense in one side of the State’s toughest district. These two teams are rated #3 and #5 in D2 by our computer model, and I will not be surprised if either advances out of the district.

Byron Center (8-1) vs. Portage Central (8-1)

The other side of the State’s toughest district. Byron Center is the only team to beat last year’s D2 Runner-Up and reigning D3 #1, Forest Hills Central. Portage Central’s only loss is to the Rangers as well, coming way back in Week 2. Like I said above, I will not be surprised if either of these teams advance out of the district.

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Two Rounds Too Soon

In addition to EGR / Coopersville, Caledonia / Portage Northern, & Byron Center / Portage Central, there are 4 OTHER matchups between top 8 teams this weekend.

Per our computer model, these games are happening ‘Two Rounds Too Soon’ (they would be projected Regional Finals if the brackets were seeded all the way down)

Ithaca (9-0) vs. Fowler (8-1)

  • Rankings: Fowler #1, Ithaca #5 (D8)

  • Spread: Fowler -6

  • Win Probability: Fowler 57%

Forest Hills Central (8-1) vs. Lowell (6-3)

  • Rankings: FHC #1, Lowell #6 (D3)

  • Spread: FHC -16

  • Win Probability: FHC 81%

Whitehall (9-0) vs. Allendale (6-3)

  • Rankings: Whitehall #1, Allendale #6 (D4)

  • Spread: Whitehall -16

  • Win Probability: Whitehall 81%

Lawton (8-1) vs. Schoolcraft (7-2)

  • Rankings: Lawton #3, Schoolcraft #6 (D7)

  • Spread: Lawton -7

  • Win Probability: Lawton 59%

What round should your team be playing in?

Find out on Goosepoop Pro, where our computer has ranked all 495 teams in the State.

Someone Has To Lose

Corunna & Flint Hamady is the only game between undefeated teams this week.

Corunna (9-0) vs. Flint Hamady (8-0)

Undefeated No More?

Outside of Flint Hamady & Ithaca, one other undefeated team is projected to lose this week:

Addison (9-0) vs. Hudson (7-2)

Coin Flip

Beyond EGR / Coopersville, there are two other “Pick ‘Em” games this weekend:

Negaunee (7-2) vs. Grayling (6-3)

Westland John Glenn (7-2) vs. Detroit Cass Tech (6-3)

Over / Under Superlatives

We’ve already mentioned this game, but why not throw out one more fun fact?

Lowest Over / Under

  • East Grand Rapids (7-2) vs. Coopersville (7-2)

  • Over / Under: 28 Points

As for the *most* projected points, that’s also projected to happen in D3:

Highest Over / Under

  • DeWitt (7-2) vs. Fenton (6-3)

  • Over / Under: 78 Points

  • Spread: DeWitt -11.5

  • Win Probability: DeWitt 77%

Don’t see your team’s game projected?

Don’t worry!

We’ve got every.single.game projected on Goosepoop Pro.

MHSFCA Coaches Poll

Last thing here!

The MHSFCA Coach’s Poll has been updated for Week 9

Check out how the State’s Coaches have teams ranked right here

That’s all for today guys!

Thanks again for reading my note.

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