2023 MHSAA Football Finals Preview

Hi Everyone -

Goosepoop #87 is here!

Today’s note will be our third-ever State Finals Preview.

Below, we’ve got a brief overview of all 8 games & our projected winners in each.

Enjoy!

Brackets, Schedules & Tickets

If you’re wondering what the exact dates & times are for this weekend’s games, check out the link below. You can also buy tickets!

• MHSAA 2023 Football Finals Information

Honesty Hour

Before we jump in, I wanted to share a note on the Computer Model’s accuracy thus far in the Playoffs.

This year, the Computer has had the following record while attempting to pick the winners of each round:

• R1: 114-14 (89% accuracy)

• R2: 50-14 (78%)

• R3: 23-9 (72%)

• R4: 14-2 (88%)

• Total record in playoffs so far: 201-39 (84% accuracy)

Ok, so what about going forward?

Click here to find out our projected record this week, and how that compares to what happened last year.

Division 8

Ottawa Lake Whiteford (13-0) vs. Ubly (13-0)

Pick any one of these story lines, and you’d have a great game: the State’s only remaining undefeated matchup. A rematch of last year’s State Final. The CLOSEST projection of all 8 State Finals.

Because we’re lucky, we get ALL THREE of them here.

Side note: In last year’s game, our computer had Whiteford, who was the Champion. BUT, if you recall, we actually publicly picked against that computer projection, because we were wary of Ubly being underrated by the computer model.

This year, I’ve learned my lesson. I’m rolling with my model!

• Spread: Ubly -1

• Over/Under: 59

• Win Probability: Ubly 51%

Division 7

Jackson Lumen Christi (12-1) vs. Menominee (11-2)

Menominee is the UP’s last chance for a football State Title in 2023.

Look below, and you will note that the odds of this happening have dropped since my previous tweet on the subject (when 4 UP teams remained, the odds of a UP state title were 59%).

That said, I wouldn’t discount the Maroons from giving the reigning D7 State Champs a game. Take a look at their week-over-week computer rating trend, and you’ll see why: the Maroons have steadily risen all season long, to the point where they are now within a touchdown of Lumen Christi.

But will that matter? LC plays a tougher schedule than most D7 teams, and they’ve routinely shown their ability to ‘play up’ for big games (see last year’s State Final, where they were the single largest underdog of any team, and still won).

Speaking of: we previously said the Regional Final between LC & Clinton was the de-facto D7 State Championship. The Computer Model still thinks thats true, with Clinton rated slightly ahead of #3 Menominee.

• Spread: Lumen Christi -6

• Over/Under: 49

• Win Probability: 57%

Division 6

Almont (12-1) vs. Kingsley (11-2)

From the start of this year’s Playoffs, the computer model has had Kingsley as the most likely State Champion across any division.

The Stags are only one game away from vindicating that prediction, but this will be their toughest test yet: in the past 4 rounds, they’ve yet to face a point spread less than 19.

As for Almont, they’ve also been heralded by the computer model: we’ve had them in the top 3 of D6 all season long. The Raiders have had a much tougher route than Kingsley, having had to defeat D6’s #3 team, Michigan Collegiate, in the District Finals.

Will the tougher playoff schedule aid the Raiders? Our computer says no, but hey, 13 point upsets happen all the time (22% to be specific).

Side note: at 68, this is the HIGHEST point total of any game this weekend.

• Spread: Kingsley -13

• Over/Under: 68

• Win Probability: Kingsley 78%

Division 5

Corunna (13-0) vs. Grand Rapids Catholic Central (12-1)

Is Corunna the State of Michigan’s team this weekend?

Let’s look at the bullet points:

• The Cavs are undefeated and in the State Finals for the first time ever

• They’ve emerged as one of the top two teams in a division that is absolutely stacked, featuring 4 of the State’s top 15 rated OVERALL teams

• They’re facing a perennial Ford Field contender, Grand Rapids Catholic Central

I won’t speak for myself, but the storyline is certainly there.

Speaking of, let’s briefly touch on their opponent, GRCC.

GRCC is back in the Finals after a hiatus this past year, a spot they’ve reached 5 times prior since 2016.

In the past two weeks, the Cougars have strung together their two best victories this season: they dispatched of their crosstown rival, West Catholic, in the Regional Finals, and then stayed HOT, defeating 2021 State Finalist Frankenmuth, 35-0 (a game that was a 7 point spread).

Suffice to say, the stage is set. And if the Computer Model’s right, this particular showing will be a good one.

• Spread: GRCC -4

• Over/Under: 46

• Win Probability: GRCC 54%

Intermission

Before we get to the last 4 divisions, I want to tell you about something that’s very important to me:

I’m sick and tired of seeing youth sports teams get fleeced

What?

I’m talking about fundraising.

When you pay a % of your fundraiser back to 3rd party company, you’re paying too much.

And that’s why I started Teamfi.

Teamfi helps your team or club fundraise hundreds of dollars per participant

FOR FREE.

Find out more (and see some of 50+ teams around the State that we’ve helped) right here

Division 4

Harper Woods (10-3) vs. Grand Rapids South Christian (10-3)

South Christian is one of the Computer Model’s misses this year. And that’s a strange sentence to write, given that the Sailors are the reigning D4 State Champs.

Why’d we miss them? Well, as always, it’s a bit of an upset story: we had Niles and Whitehall in the Semis on their side of the bracket, and South Christian faced neither of them, due to upsets in earlier rounds.

Does that mean the Sailors aren’t worthy? Quite the contrary: D4 was a MANY horse race all season long, with the top ~9 teams regularly all rated within 2 touchdowns of each other.

Speaking of, South Christian will face the highest rated of those 9 in this year’s final: fresh off of an 11 point victory over #4 Goodrich, Harper Woods’s computer rating has never been higher.

This week, we’ve got a similar outcome: a 10 point victory for Harper Woods. But, don’t count the Sailors out: recall that they lost to fellow state finalist, GRCC, by only 9 points in Week 8.

That’s an 8 point swing from what was a 17-point spread… if such a swing happens here, this game will be down to the WIRE.

• Spread: Harper Woods -10

• Over/Under: 57

• Win Probability: Harper Woods 69%

Division 3

Mason (13-0) vs. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (12-1)

Two fun facts on this game:

• It is the lowest over/under of any State Final this weekend (two weeks in a row for FHC!)

• Its point spread is the largest disconnect between our Computer Model and conventional wisdom.

More on the second point: I’m using MIHSFBALLPICKEM’S contest results as a stand-in for ‘Conventional Wisdom’. In his blind poll, over 76% of contestants have picked Mason to beat FHC. That’s almost the inverse of our computer’s percentages!

• Spread: FHC -11

• Over/Under: 42

• Win Probability: FHC 73%

Division 2

Warren De La Salle (11-2) vs. Muskegon (11-2)

This is another strange one.

In a game that is the Finals’ only rematch, Muskegon is favored to beat a team by 11 who previously beat them by 12.

How can this be?

It’s a story of trendlines, specifically Muskegon’s.

While DLS’s rating has held steady throughout the year, the Big Reds have never been hotter: they’ve covered the computer’s spread in 3 out of their 4 playoff games.

And not only have they’ve covered their spread; they’ve also beat said spread by an average of 11 points.

Will they do it again?

• Spread: Muskegon -11

• Over/Under: 55

• Win Probability: Muskegon 73%

Division 1

Belleville (13-0) vs. Southfield A&T (12-1)

If our computer is right, the last 2023 MHSAA Football State Final will also be the worst one (as judged by margin of victory).

And you guys agree: looking at MIHSFBALLPICKEM’s data, 95% of you have picked Belleville to win, a ratio that is only rivaled by Lumen Christi over Menominee (89/11 in that one).

With all this said, you should still certainly tune in: the game will feature a PLETHORA of talent on both sides, as both teams feature Power 5 QBs and many other Division 1 names to boot.

• Spread: Belleville -23

• Over/Under: 62

• Win Probability: Belleville 89%

Press Notes

Courtesy of my friend Snooze2You, this Twitter thread has a compilation of each State Final’s press notes.

Give it a read to find out rosters, yardage stats, and other hard-to-come-by nuggets on each team.

Thanks for reading everyone. If you like what I write, please consider subscribing below!