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2023 MHSAA Football District Championships Preview
Corunna / NDP... is any other undefeated team projected to lose?
Hi Everyone -
Goosepoop #84 is here!
Here’s the lineup for today’s note:
Feature Games: projections for the week’s biggest games
Two Rounds Too Soon: projections for games that should be happening two weeks from now
Undefeated Matchups: projections for the week’s undefeated matchups
Undefeated No More: other games where undefeated teams are expected to lose
Pick’ Em Games: games where each side has an equal chance of winning
Over / Under Superlatives: games with the highest (and lowest) projected point totals
Coach’s Poll: Last week, the final Coach’s Poll of the Season was released
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3rd Annual Playoff Preview Guide
I know we’re already 1 week into the Playoffs, but if you want to keep my projections honest, you can reference the guide that I dropped last week:
If you’d rather not read the guide, you can listen to my commentary on the GLSFB podcast from last week as well….
Please keep me honest!!!
Week 11 Feature Games
Caledonia (8-2) vs. Byron Center (9-1)
The final matchup in the State’s toughest district. Last week, the computer model went 2-0 in this district projecting what were two very close spreads. We’ll see if that happens again this time around….
Spread: Caledonia -4
Win Probability: Caledonia 54%
Corunna (10-0) vs. Notre Dame Prep (9-0)
This is my favorite game of the week. Two undefeated teams squaring off in what *should* be a State Semi Final.
Spread: Notre Dame Prep -8
Win Probability: NDP 61%
Fun Fact: I tweeted a while back about the top 4 teams in D5 being a class above every other division’s top 4, save for D1…. here’s the actual stats behind that:
Notre Dame Prep would be ranked:
#3 in D1
#2 in D2
#1 in D3
#1 in D4
Corunna would be ranked:
#6 in D1
#5 in D2
#3 in D3
#2 in D4
Almont (9-1) vs. Warren Michigan Collegiate (10-0)
Another media outlet will tell you that this is the D6 State Championship. The computer would tell you that’s a bit overzealous: we think Kingsley is the top team in D6.
That said, this game is still being played two rounds too early, and should absolutely be a State Semi Final game.
It’s also projected to be quite the game, to boot:
Spread: PICK ‘EM
Win Probability: 50/50
Belleville (10-0) vs. Saline (9-1)
This game will be getting the most attention nationally this week, just given the players on the field. Both teams feature future Power 5 QBs, along with a plethora of other D1 players.
Aside from the individual talent, the game itself should also be a dandy. Saline is a few points away from being undefeated (their one loss: undefeated Lake Orion), and Belleville is owner of the State’s longest win streak.
Last year, these two teams lit up the score board in what was ultimately an 18 point victory for the Tigers. The computer projects a bit closer of a contest this time around:
Spread: Belleville -13
Win Probability: Belleville 78%
FINALLY, someone said it:
I don’t like the profit-sharing model of fundraising
The dollars your team fundraises should stay in the community that’s donating them.
That’s why we made our product, Teamfi, free.
Yes - you are not going crazy.
Teamfi will let your team fundraise hundreds of dollars per player
…. and keep ALL of the dollars you raise.
How are we possibly doing this?
Two Rounds Too Soon
All of the feature games this week (save for Belleville / Saline) *should* be State Semi Finals (if our Computer was the one seeding the bracket).
There’s one other game this week that should also be a Semi Final. Zeeland West is our #2 team in D3, and Coopersville is our #4 team.
Zeeland West (7-3) vs. Coopersville (8-2)
Spread: Zeeland West -9
Win Probability: Zeeland West 65%
What round should your team be playing in?
Find out on Goosepoop Pro, where our computer has ranked all 495 teams in the State.
Check it out right here
Someone Has To Lose
Corunna / Notre Dame Prep is the *ONLY* 11-Man undefeated matchup this week.
HOWEVER…. there is one undefeated matchup going down in 8-man this week:
Climax-Scotts (10-0) vs. Adrian Lenawee Christian (10-0)
Spread: Lenawee Christian -7
Undefeated No More?
There are 19 11-man teams on Survivor Island right now. You can check them all out right here:
According to our projections, only two of these 19 teams are projected to lose this week. One is the loser of Corunna / ND Prep. The other is North Muskegon:
North Muskegon (10-0) vs. Lawton (9-1)
Spread: Lawton -8
Win Probability: Lawton 61%
So this is a bit of a misnomer. There’s only true PICK ‘EM game this week, and that’s Almont / MI Collegiate.
BUT, there are two 1 point spreads, so I’m lumping those in here:
Chesaning (9-1) vs. Bullock Creek (7-3)
Spread: Chesaning -1
Win Probability: Chesaning 51%
Grosse Pointe South (9-1) vs. Roseville (7-3)
Spread: Grosse Pointe South -1
Win Probability: GP South 51%
Over / Under Superlatives
The lowest over/under in the State this week:
Lowest Over / Under
Chelsea (9-1) vs. Haslett (7-3)
Over / Under: 31
Spread: Haslett -2
Win Probability: Haslett 52%
As for the *most* projected points, there’s actually a tie between two games:
Highest Over / Under
River Rouge (6-4) vs. Riverview (9-1)
Over / Under: 71
Spread: River Rouge -10
Win Probability: River Rouge 69%
Kingsley (8-2) vs. Manistee (8-2)
Over / Under: 71
Spread: Kingsley -19
Win Probability: Kingsley 84%
Don’t see your team’s game projected?
We’ve got every.single.game projected on Goosepoop Pro.
Check it out right here
MHSFCA Coaches Poll
Last thing here!
The FINAL MHSFCA Coach’s Poll of the season was released last week
Check out how the State’s Coaches have teams ranked right here
That’s all for today guys!
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