2022 Win Projections

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #32!

Today’s post is the last of our preseason content. We will start our in-season rotation of twice weekly posts on Wednesday (two days from now). If you haven’t yet read our other preseason posts, make sure you head on over to those as well (linked below).

Within today’s post, we will be covering two different methods for projecting 2022 win totals for all 500 11-man teams. We’ll start with a brief overview on how each of the two different methods work, and then we will jump into the projections themselves. Read on to find out what each has to say about your team’s 2022 performance.

Before we get there, let’s pause briefly to see how our community is doing ……

We are proud to share that this is our first post with 500+ subscribers. We’ve grown tremendously in the last few months, and that has everything to do with the support that you guys have given us. Thanks to all of our loyal readers: we greatly appreciate your love and support. Here’s to knocking down 1000 subscribers before this season is over!

For those of you haven’t subscribed, you can do so at the link below. As we note above, we will be starting our in-season posts this coming Wednesday. If you want the best data-driven insights on all the high school football action happening around the state, delivered twice weekly to your inbox, this is the place for you (so make sure you subscribe)!

Two Methods for Projecting Win Totals

Alright: let’s get into the topic at hand. How many wins will your team have in 2022? We have two different methods for answering this question:

1. The Goosepoop Computer Model

2. Submissions made by Playoff Wizard Users

Method #1: The Goosepoop Computer Model

We will start with method #1: the Goosepoop Computer Model. We debuted this model in our last post, where we reviewed how it works in detail (linking below for those interested).

In short, this model assigns each team a power rating based on historical point spreads. This power rating then represents how many points better or worse one team is when compared to its opponent. For instance, if Team A has a power rating of 21.0, and they are playing Team B, who is rated as 14.0, Team A can be expected to win by 7 points.

With 2022 schedules now all but set, we can overlay each team’s end of season 2021 power rating on their 2022 schedule. Then, for each game in a team’s regular season, we can see if their opponent’s power rating is better or worse than their own. If it’s better, our model projects that that team will lose the game; vis versa if the opponent’s rating is worse.

As an example, let’s look at Forest Hills Eastern’s 2022 schedule. The Hawks have a power rating of 13.2, and they are currently pegged to play the following opponents:

• Adrian (power rating -11.2)

• South Haven (-9.5)

• Kenowa Hills (0.2)

• Wayland (-11.8)

• GR Catholic Central (51.5)

• Middleville TK (7.2)

• Cedar Springs (33.2)

• GR Ottawa Hills (-8.1)

• GR South Christian (34.4)

As you can see, FHE’s power rating is better than its opponents in 6 of its 9 games this year. As such, under method #1, we are projecting FHE to go 6-3 this year. 

Method #2: Submissions Made by Playoff Wizard Users

Our second method for predicting 2022 win totals is a bit simpler than method #1. It relies solely on the projections that you guys make in our Playoff Wizard prediction app. To do this, it aggregates all 3500+ projections that have been made thus far into an average selection for each team.

To understand, let’s look at Forest Hills Eastern’s projections once again. In total, there’s been 77 submissions made for Forest Hills Eastern or the opponents playing Forest Hills Eastern. Of those 77 submissions, these are the % of times that FHE is selected as the winner in each game:

• Adrian: 75%

• South Haven: 58%

• Kenowa Hills: 40%

• Wayland: 63%

• GR Catholic Central: 18%

• Middleville TK: 83%

• Cedar Springs: 0%

• GR Ottawa Hills: 70%

• GR South Christian: 7%

By summing up these averages, we can arrive at FHE’s average expected win total. In this case, FHE’s average expected wins is 4.14 - quite a bit different than the 6-3 projected by our model. 

With an understanding of our two methodologies now in place, let’s jump into the numbers themselves…..

Division 8 Win Projections

Top Half of Teams:

Bottom Half of Teams:

Division 7 Win Projections

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Bottom Half of Teams:

Division 6 Win Projections

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Bottom Half of Teams:

Division 5 Win Projections

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Division 4 Win Projections

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Division 3 Win Projections

Top Half of Teams:

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Division 2 Win Projections

Top Half of Teams:

Bottom Half of Teams:

Division 1 Win Projections

Top Half of Teams:

Bottom Half of Teams:

And that’s all we’ve got for this post. The 2022 preseason is now officially concluded!

As mentioned, stay tuned for our Week One Preview post on Wednesday morning. For those of you who aren’t subscribed, do so below to make sure you don’t miss out.

Thanks for reading everyone. See you all in just a few short days!