2022 Playoff Preview Guide

Hi All!

Welcome back to Goosepoop, newsletter #49!

Today is a special edition of our newsletter, where we preview the playoff field in each division.

In this note, you’ll find the following sections:

• Who’s In & Who’s Out: An analysis of the teams in the playoff field, including the teams who missed the playoffs but deserved to be there

• Divisional Superlatives: Using our computer model, we rank the teams in each division’s playoff field across a set of categories

• Strongest & Weakest Districts: Analysis on where each Division’s bracket is strongest & weakest

• Week 10 Big Games: The best Round 1 playoff games happening this week

Let’s get into it!

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Who’s In and Who’s Out

Record Counts of Qualifying Teams

This year’s playoff field features 22 losing records teams, including more 3-6 teams than ever (7 total).

Below, we’ve broken down the count of teams by record:

9 Wins

• 24 Teams

8 Wins

• 45 Teams

7 Wins

• 58 Teams

6 Wins

• 50 Teams

5 Wins

• 45 Teams

4 Wins

• 15 Teams

3 Wins

• 7 Teams

Teams Who Belonged in the Playoffs

These teams missed the playoffs despite being ranked in the top 32 by our computer model.

Their respective ranking within their division is included in parentheses.

Division 1

• Hudsonville (#17)

• New Baltimore Anchor Bay (#23)

• Holland West Ottawa (#25)

• Jenison (#29)

• Sterling Heights Stevenson (#30)

Division 2

• Harper Woods (#17)

• UD Jesuit (#18)

• Forest Hills Northern (#26)

• Flushing (#27)

• Portage Central (#28)

• Mattawan (#29)

• White Lake Lakeland (#31)

• Walled Lake Central (#32)

Division 3

• GR Northview (#24)

• Sault Ste Marie (#25)

• Plainwell (#28)

• Middleville Thornapple Kellogg (#32)

Division 4

• Wayland (#20)

• Lake Fenton (#25)

• Allendale (#26)

• Holland Christian (#28)

Division 5

• Cheboygan (#25)

• Benton Harbor (#27)

• Flint Powers Catholic (#31)

Division 6

• Hillsdale (#17)

• Laingsburg (#22)

• Blissfield (#26)

• Grayling (#30)

• Detroit Edison (#31)

• Michigan Center (#32)

Division 7

• Detroit Loyola (#18)

• Jonesville (#20)

• Galesburg-Augusta (#21)

• Beaverton (#26)

• Hanover-Horton (#30)

Division 8

• Petersburg-Summerfield (#22)

• Sand Creek (#27)

• East Jackson (#29)

• Saranac (#31)

In all, the MHSAA’s playoff point formula did a pretty good job here, as only 39 teams were errantly left out (~15% of the field). No teams in the top half of their division were left out.

Teams with Losing Records

22 Teams qualified for the playoffs with losing records:

Division 1

• Lake Orion, 4-5 (#22)

• Grand Blanc, 4-5 (#24)

Division 3

• Brother Rice, 3-5 (#7)

• East Grand Rapids, 4-5 (#16)

• Holly, 4-5 (#38)

• Detroit Renaissance, 4-5 (#42)

Division 4

• Orchard Lake St Mary’s, 3-5 (#10)

• Grand Rapids Christian, 3-6 (#19)

• Paw Paw, 4-5 (#35)

Division 6

• Lansing Catholic, 4-5 (#12)

• Ida, 4-5 (#13)

• Montague, 3-6 (#33)

Division 7

• SMCC, 4-5 (#11)

• Benzie Central, 3-6 (#14)

• Delton Kellogg, 4-5 (#32)

• Niles Brandywine, 4-5 (#33)

• L’Anse, 4-5 (#34)

• Burton Bendle, 4-5 (#47)

• Southfield Bradford, (3-6) #53)

Division 8

• Ishpeming, (4-5) (#12)

• Detroit Leadership, (4-5) (#21)

• Parkway Christian, (4-5) (#30)

Under the old system, Top 10 teams like Brother Rice and Orchard Lake St Mary’s would have been sitting home this week.

Divisional Superlatives

Per our computer model, below are the best & worst for the teams in each division’s playoff field across a set of categories:

Division 1

• Best Team: Rockford

• Worst Team: Troy

• Best Offense: Rockford

• Worst Offense: Troy

• Best Defense: East Kentwood

• Worst Defense: Dearborn

• Undefeated Teams: Rockford (#1), Macomb Dakota (#6), Belleville (#10)

• Projected Final: Rockford (#1) vs. West Bloomfield (#4)

Division 2

• Best Team: Warren DLS

• Worst Team: Warren Cousino

• Best Offense: Warren DLS

• Worst Offense: Warren Cousino

• Best Defense: FHC

• Worst Defense: Warren Cousino

• Undefeated Teams: FHC (#2), Dexter (#3)

• Projected Final: Warren DLS (#1) vs. FHC (#2)

Division 3

• Best Team: Walled Lake Western

• Worst Team: Auburn Hill Avondale

• Best Offense: Walled Lake Western

• Worst Offense: Holly

• Best Defense: River Rouge

• Worst Defense: Auburn Hills Avondale

• Undefeated Teams: Mason (#8)

• Projected Final: Walled Lake Western (#1) vs. Lowell (#4)

Division 4

• Best Team: Whitehall

• Worst Team: Garden City

• Best Offense: Whitehall

• Worst Offense: Garden City

• Best Defense: South Christian

• Worst Defense: Garden City

• Undefeated Teams: Whitehall (#1), South Christian (#2), Riverview (#6), Tecumseh (#8), Redford Union (#18)

• Projected Final: Whitehall (#1) vs. Freeland (#3)

Division 5

• Best Team: Frankenmuth

• Worst Team: SCS South Lake

• Best Offense: Gladwin

• Worst Offense: Summit Academy

• Best Defense: Frankenmuth

• Worst Defense: SCS South Lake

• Undefeated Teams: Frankenmuth (#1), Gladwin (#2)

• Projected Final: Gladwin (#2) vs. Frankenmuth (#1)

Division 6

• Best Team: West Catholic

• Worst Team: Clawson

• Best Offense: Constantine

• Worst Offense: Detroit Northwestern

• Best Defense: West Catholic

• Worst Defense: Clawson

• Undefeated Teams: Clinton (#2), Negaunee (#4), Durand (#6), Boyne City (#10), Bishop Foley (#23)

• Projected Final: GR West Catholic (#1) vs. Negaunee (#4)

Division 7

• Best Team: TC St Francis

• Worst Team: Southfield Bradford

• Best Offense: TC St Francis

• Worst Offense: Southfield Bradford

• Best Defense: Hudson

• Worst Defense: Southfield Bradford

• Undefeated Teams: TC St Francis (#1), Detroit Central (#12), Napoleon (#13)

• Projected Final: TC St Francis (#1) vs. Hudson (#2)

Division 8

• Best Team: Whiteford

• Worst Team: Mt Clemens

• Best Offense: Whiteford

• Worst Offense: Detroit Community

• Best Defense: Iron Mountain

• Worst Defense: Mt Clemens

• Undefeated Teams: Whiteford (#1), Ubly (#3), Beal City (#5)

• Projected Final: Whiteford (#1) vs. Iron Mountain (#2)

Strongest & Weakest Districts

The Toughest & Weakest District in Every Division

Below are the average team ratings within each division’s districts & regionals. In GREEN is that division’s toughest district, and in RED is the weakest district.

In parentheses, we’ve noted each team’s division ranking according to our computer model.

Division 1

Toughest District:

• Rockford (#1)

• Caledonia (#2)

• Grandville (#5)

• East Kentwood (#15)

Weakest District:

• DCC (#11)

• Northville (#34)

• Dearborn (#36)

• Novi (#39)

Division 2

Toughest District:

• Dexter (#2)

• Milford (#8)

• South Lyon (#6)

• South Lyon East (#9)

Weakest District:

• SCS Lakeview (#30)

• L’Anse Creuse (#36)

• Port Huron (#42)

• Port Huron Northern (#44)

Division 3

Toughest District

• Lowell (#4)

• Zeeland West (#6)

• St Joseph (#10)

• East Grand Rapids (#16)

Weakest District

• Mason (#8)

• Jackson (#23)

• Parma Western (#26)

• Sturgis (#31)

Division 4

Toughest District

• South Christian (#2)

• Unity Christian (#13)

• Forest Hills Eastern (#15)

• Grand Rapids Christian (#19)

Weakest District

• Divine Child (#12)

• Redford Union (#18)

• Livonia Clarenceville (#32)

• Garden City (#50)

Division 5

Toughest District

• Gladwin (#2)

• Kingsley (#5)

• Kingsford (#15)

• Ogemaw Heights (#16)

Weakest District

• Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (#8)

• Detroit Country Day (#9)

• Detroit Southeastern (#30)

• SCS South Lake (#38)

Division 6

Toughest District

• West Catholic (#1)

• Constantine (#3)

• Watervliet (#20)

• Buchanan (#21)

Weakest District

• Warren Collegiate (#9)

• Bishop Foley (#23)

• Detroit Collegiate Prep (#52)

• Clawson (#53)

Division 7

Toughest District:

• Hudson (#2)

• Lumen Christi (#5)

• Union City (#16)

• Homer (#17)

Weakest District:

• SMCC (#11)

• Detroit Central (#12)

• GP University Liggett (#36)

• Southfield Bradford (#53)

Division 8

Toughest District

• Iron Mountain (#2)

• Ishpeming (#12)

• Bark River-Harris (#13)

• St Ignace (#18)

Weakest District

• Detroit Leadership (#21)

• Parkway Christian (#30)

• Detroit Community (#41)

• Mt Clemens (#43)

Week 10 Big Games

Top 5 Overall Matchups

• Caledonia (#2 D1) vs. Grandville (#5 D1)

• Rockford (#1 D1) vs. East Kentwood (#15 D1)

• West Bloomfield (#4 D1) vs. Cass Tech (#12 D1)

• Chippewa Valley (#9 D1) vs. Romeo (#14 D1)

• Detroit MLK (#3 D3) vs. River Rouge (#2 D3)

Best Matchup in Every Division

• D1: Caledonia (#2) vs. Grandville (#5)

• D2: Dexter (#3) vs. Milford (#8)

• D3: River Rouge (#2) vs. Detroit MLK (#3)

• D4: Freeland (#3) vs. North Branch (#7)

• D5: Williamston (#6) vs. Corunna (#12)

• D6: Clinton (#2) vs. Ida (#13)

• D7: Hudson (#2) vs. Union City (#16)

• D8: Iron Mountain (#2) vs. Ishpeming (#12)

Matchups Between Undefeated Teams

• None This Week :(

That’s all for today!

Check back here on Thursday for our Preview of each of this week’s big games

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